Q: What is the four year presidential stock market cycle?

A: The four year presidential stock market cycle is the idea that the stock market will do better in the second half of a presidential term, than in the first half. In fact this has seemed to hold true for the past century. Cover the last century, the average return for stocks during the first half of a four-year presidential term was 10.1 percent. But in the second half of a president’s four-year term, investors have enjoyed an average gain of 22.1 percent. This does not mean that this is true for every presidential term.

Would I bet my investing money on the four year presidential stock market cycle? No. As they say in the mutual fund business, past performance is no guarantee of future results.