Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by Harry Browne. By Arlington House.
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5 comments about How you can Profit from the coming devaluation.
- I've been a good student, good in Math, the sciences, including economics, and other academic subjects. Heck, I'm even a member of Mensa. But though I didn't realize it before, it wasn't until I read this book that I really began to understand what inflation and deflation were. Somewhere in this book he says, "The government is the counterfeiter". I had to think and think for a while about what Harry Browne wrote in this book before I really - I mean REALLY - began to understand what inflation is (and I'm supposed to be intelligent). It's one of those things - you don't know that you don't understand, until you do understand. It's like those weird 3D pictures, you don't see them until you see them, and then WOW! That's what this book did for me. The book may be dated, but the lessons are eternal.
- ---AS A SEPARATE BOOK!!!
It's the BEST introduction to economics ever written. I've owned a copy since the early 70's when I was in high school, and I've never beeen fooled by politician's promises ever since. I've read it several times. Much of the rest of the book is dated so doesn't need to be republished. If Harry would republish and widely distribute the first 78 pages or so of this book to all high school and college students, the politicians would have a much more difficult time fooling voters with their schemes.
- Doing very well as an investor doesn't take much intelligence, just a lot of patience and a willingness to ignore fads. At the time Browne's book was first published, gold and silver were laughingstock as investments, and so was anyone who bought them. Thirty years later, we're right back to an instant replay of the Seventies. A long war, government printing money with abandon, stocks taking a beating but equity cheerleaders assuring us we won't have a ten- or fifteen-year bear market again. Browne's book is well-written, but you can save youself the money nowadays by just entering the words 'gold bull market' in your favorite Internet search engine. Paper assets go out of fashion every twenty-five to thirty years, and when they do, gold and silver do spectacularly well. That, in a nutshell, is how to profit from the coming devaluation of the U.S. dollar; sell your dollars for gold and silver, then sit tight and wait. Don't bother telling anyone, you'll just be ridiculed first and reviled later. Just like those who cleaned up by following Browne's counterculture advice when this book was on the bestseller lists in the Disco era.
- I enjoy reading books filled with dire predictions several decades after publication. With the benefit of hindsight the question of why the author was or was not correct is fascinating. I highly recommend this book, as even though the author may have been wrong in certain areas, I feel that many of the themes of the book are relevant today.
- I agree with reviewer whose heading reads "MR. BROWNE SHOULD REPUBLISH THE FIRST 78 PAGES-" .
I have read many other popular intros to economics, like Hazlitt's econo in one lesson(awesome), and sowell's basic econo: a citizen's guide to the economy, and many others as well as more advanced books and I think the first 78 pages are page for page the best intro I have ever stumbled upon. Those 78 pages are all the economic knowledge needed to change the world.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by Peter Lynch and John Rothchild. By Penguin (Non-Classics).
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5 comments about One up on Wall Street: How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market.
- I thought this book was an abreviated version of the full book, however this book is actually a miniture ~2inch micro-pocket version of the full book. Text is full size, thus it only contains a very few high-level comments. I was hoping for a boiled-down version, but got mini-me.
- I was going to do some online trading and bought this book too learn more about selecting stocks. Mr. Lynchs' statement that he considered himself successful if 6 out 10 stocks he selected increased in value changed my mind. I want to thank him for waking me up. I will stick to index funds and wish all the online traders the best of luck.
- I struggled with the 1st 74 pages or so, but after that this book is excellent. There is a section he titles Kicking the Tires, in short he goes over how to evaluate a company and to stay away from the 1-2 year fly away companies. I remember when everyone was selling Apple back in the day, Peter did the opposite and started gobbling up shares. As he somewhat states, the wheels on Apple were still good.
- Peter Lynch wrote a classic with One Up on Wall Street. Peter Lynch was lead investment manager of the Magellan Fund, which is arguably the most successful large $ mutual fund in the US. He no longer manages the fund but in his book he lets us in on some of his secrets of choosing stocks.
His approach is rather simple. Buy stock in something that you know. As a consumer and a personal investor we have the ability to know products before anyone on the street knows about them. For example he got in on the stock Yum Brands because he bought a Taco Bell burrito years ago when it first came out. He believed that their set up and approach would work and so he put some money into the company.
His suggestions like listening to things Oprah likes are great simple tips that a typical investor may not even realize we have more information on than wall street on a daily basis. His book is a read for all investor types from beginner to advanced. Enjoy!
- Amateur investors have "numerous built-in advantages, which, if exploited, should result in outperforming the market and the experts."
Peter Lynch, America's number-one money manager of Fidelity's multibillion-dollar Magellan Fund, shows the layperson how to use what they already know to outperform the "experts" and to create investments on businesses that really matter.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by Allen Jan Baird. By Wiley.
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5 comments about Option Market Making: Trading and Risk Analysis for the Financial and Commodity Option Markets (Wiley Finance).
- Just out of curiosity it may be worth skimming through its pages, but the way Mr Baird used to trade in the past (with sheets to get ur position from) is far away from how this is done today. Hence, do not surprise yourself if discussions such as smile delta and smile gamma do not come into play.
- Baird's "Option Market Making" is the *other* essential options book that any serious practitioner should read. Whether you are buy-side or sell-side, or trading your own book, this work is fundamental and extends where Hull leaves off. In short, pricing models do not a bid-offer spread make, and Baird illuminates this dark world with the well-crafted sunshine of expertise, mathematical rigor, and experience. In addition, Baird's prose is clean, clear, readable and lean, without glossing over tough spots or ignoring extremes.
Baird's 1993 "Option Market Making" while a bit dated, is becoming recognized as an enduring classic. Not because it is up-to-date with the latest smile dynamics from the research of Avellenada or Rebenato, but because it does what it does very well. Like a classic cookbook such as The Joy of Cooking, this work tells you how to make perfect pot roast, but not the latest slow braised chipolte-rubbed hand-aged hanger steak.
Baird's "Option Market Making", indeed, is an economic anomaly, for it refutes an old chestnut: "those who can't do, teach." In the financial publishing world a book that makes or saves you money should not exist, since the expected return of taking the time and work for authorship is much lower than another economic activity (probably including flipping hamburgers). What motivated Baird? Who knows? But this is pure saved gold here.
Option neophytes should not be misled: this is not a book of "secrets of" that will lead you to quick easy riches in the sometimes wild swings of delta and gamma in options markets. Rather, this is a sober, careful, useful book on the actual difficulty of making a market under uncertainty and rapidly changing information sets. This is a work for practitioners and professionals who want to survive and thrive, not "*just*drive!*" Cowboys and "feelings" punters look elsewhere to scratch your itch.
Standout chapters include "Options Risk" which treats delta, gamma, lambda, theta, kappa/vega, rho, skew, and time spread risks in a clear, although direct and quick, manner. "Position Risk Profiles" covers the meat and potatoes of an options market maker: what is in your book at any one time. This chapter mercifully is not in a "panic mode" tone, but rather carefully and soberly guides you through essentials of risk determination for your entire book.
The chapter "On Strategy" will be helpful for punters and those who have committed some capital to being a market maker, covering delta neutrality (yawn!), but more importantly time spreading, expiration, Fences, and high volatility periods (yeah!). It also treats broker order flow and open interest analysis in a sober way ("saucer bottom" and "reverse hook" technical analysis copter beanies need not apply).
The chapter "Market Making Tactics" is perhaps the most aggressive, but it also patiently spells out what option market makers do on a daily basis. The entry on "common mistakes" alone is worth the price of this volume. Baird closes with a lighter "Observations from the Floor," which it behooves all to read nd revist upon occasion. Having worked in a pit myself, all I can say is "amen Brother, and again I say amen."
- pretty outdated... the ratio of the added value of the book to the time spent to read it is far below than i expected..
- Well written with a lot of new ideas and useful info.
However, with the money I spent, I wish that I got more quantity than a mear newsletter. Having known then what I know now, would I still spend the cash on it? Definitely!
- Anytime anyone is willing to credibly tell you what he does to make money over the long run with well defined low-risk strategies you should listen because casinos, banks, and insurance companies certainly do. The author implies a positive expectation to option trading and those who make a living doing it would agree. The book has a conversational read and has something for the novice to the successful option trader. Highlights are: Delta neutral trading, gamma scalping, the use of spreads to enter, lay off risk and adjust, and emphasizes long volatility trading. The title of the book has probably disuaded more traders from buying the book because it is equally benefical to those who are not option market makers.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by John C. Cox and Mark Rubinstein. By Prentice Hall.
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4 comments about Options Markets.
- Always an up-to-date work. The excellent analysis of every aspect of options ranks it a must for the researcher (speculator or agent trader) in order to comprehend thoroughly the real nature and forces of the derivative instruments of the markets and obtain a strong infrastucture for consequent reading on strategies and technical analysis. Mathematics of the book are plain and worth reading to the last equation, for they prove to be the key to the understanding and valuation of any novelty work on the subject.The authors' state-of-the-art multiple remarks and explanations on options prices,their factors and sensitivity factors makes it an everyday's book, besides its academic value. A stand alone book for traders that once you get it is to be read over and over in sequence with any new techniques to be tested.
- Always an up-to-date work. The excellent analysis of every aspect of options ranks it a must for the researcher (speculator or agent trader) in order to comprehend thoroughly the real nature and forces of the derivative instruments of the markets and obtain a strong infrastucture for consequent reading on strategies and technical analysis. Mathematics of the book are plain and worth reading to the last equation, for they prove to be the key to the understanding and valuation of any novelty work on the subject.The authors' state-of-the-art multiple remarks and explanations on options prices,their factors and sensitivity factors makes it an everyday's book, besides its academic value. A stand alone book for traders that once you get it is to be read over and over in sequence with any new techniques to be tested.
- I bought this book 7 years ago, and just recently took it back off the shelf to read/reread sections related to my current work. Book is packed with explanations that facilitate understanding of these complex instruments. And it's nice to see how the binomial model is developed by its inventors. I highly recommend this book to all seeking to understand how to price and analyse options. The reason I gave it 4 stars was that book has an equities focus.
- This was our options text book at the MIT Sloan School of Management. For all the technicalities involved, "Options Markets" is relatively easy to understand and follow with plenty of examples charts, graphs and tables.
John C. Cox and Mark Rubinstein also provide sage advice and recaps, even far into the book, for example: "for initiating and maintaining neutral positions: 1. Never initiate a neutral position where one side of the position is unfavorable 2. Whenever one side...becomes unfavorable, liquidate that side and replace it with another option with a favorable price 3. Never adjust by buying an overpriced option or selling an underpriced option 4. If possible, always adjust by buying an underpriced option or selling an overpriced option Although the book is a little old, the fundamental principals are sound and so well explained as to make this a truly valuable learning tool for puts, calls, market structure, general arbitrage relationships, exact option pricing formulas, and general option applications.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by John Steele Gordon. By Penguin (Non-Classics).
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5 comments about Hamilton's Blessing: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Our National Debt.
- Just two years ago, John Steele Gordon's book on the history of the U.S. federal debt would have seemed dated, even though it was published in 1997. After more than twenty consecutive years of operating in the red, the U.S. federal government had not only erased its annual deficits and began paying down the debt, but surpluses were projected over the next ten years.
This is no longer the case. A tax cut, the war on terrorism, and a slowdown in the economy have combined to push the U.S. government's outlays above its revenues. They have also made this book -- "Hamilton's Blessing" -- relevant again. Gordon's book is two things: 1) a basic history describing the twists and turns of U.S. fiscal policy over the last two hundred-plus years and 2) a political tract condemning the latest turn U.S. fiscal policy has taken since the Great Society. By combining the two, Gordon seeks to show that the most recent practice of U.S. fiscal policy -- that of habitually running deficits in peacetime -- is not only unprecedented in U.S. history, but also, more importantly, unsupported by any sound theory of economics. "Hamilton's Blessing" is well-written and interesting. The book is only slightly marred by a lack of detail in some areas. How exactly does a large public debt hurt your average citizen and by how much? We never find out. Gordon also should have kept his own political bent out of the book. Among other things, he spends three pages in a less than 200-page book detailing Jack Kemp's personal and political history, including his football career. All very interesting, but not really relevant to the history of the U.S. debt.
- John Steele Gordon is an excellent writer, one whom I have enjoyed very much in the pages of American Heritage and who wrote a nifty history of Wall Street called "The Great Game."
This book, "Hamilton's Blessing: The Extraordinary Life and Times of Our National Debt" is a good, if brief, overview of the fiscal history of the American government. It is somewhat misnamed, since the National Debt serves as a background and tie in to each period of fiscal history studied. The author does a superb job of explaining Alexander Hamilton's establishment of our financial, banking, debt and money system. Here is a woefully under appreciated founder explained succinctly and whose brilliance and indispensability are brought forth by Gordon. Descriptions of attitudes towards and major changes in financial policy and tools follow. Gordon covers the major aspects: the struggle over the Second National Bank, Jackson's paying off the debt (the only time the US Gov't has been debt free), Lincoln and Chase's tax, greenback and bond finance of the Civil War, the long fight to establish the income tax, the fight over high marginal rates and an efficient system of taxation, and the change in view in the last century from one that deficits and debt were something to be controlled to our current sorry state of view whereby no one worries about much about deficits anymore. Debt, when properly used, has allowed us to primarily wage wars. It was retired in times of peace. We face an interesting time now, when debt as a percentage of GDP is much higher than it has been in most peacetimes. This raises the question that if we have to fight a truly massive and long war in the future, will we have the capacity to borrow what we need (based on historic statistics, it is a question well worth pondering). Gordon finishes the book with a polemic against the political culture that has lost its way in terms of providing an efficient and fair and economically sound system of taxation and the willingness to moderate the nation's debt. This is a good and interesting book. Anyone looking for a succinct telling of the development of our government's fiscal structure will appreciate this gem.
- I tip my hat to Mr. Gordon for providing a compelling short history of national debt, and how it has been shaped by tariffs, taxation and ever-increasing spending that has run amok in recent decades. It is a fascinating study into the competing visions of fiscal responsibility, notably the balanced budget extolled by Jeffersonians, which has actually been achieved on numerous occasions, versus deficit spending espoused by Hamiltonians, and of which John Maynard Keynes became the leading exponent in the inter-wars years between WWI and WWII.
While debts traditionally run high during wars, Gordon notes that since WWII, the yearly budget has rarely been balanced. It is during this time that Keynesian theory took hold and in Gordon's view led to a budget deficit that quickly spun out of control as entitlement programs took up fully three-quarters of the yearly budget. These programs have been virtually untouchable, but in 1995 (the point to which Gordon takes his history) a new reckoning emerged with the Republican landslide in Congress. Bill Clinton duly responded by proposing a balanced budget. Gordon is a fiscal conservative, but recognizes the need to run in the red during hard economic times. He notes that this was Hoover's mistake at the onset of the Great Depression, as he continued to push for a balanced budget despite warnings that it would make the recession worse. However, the federal deficit, which has mushroomed to over $5 trillion, threatens to bankrupt many of the entitlement programs including social security.
- The book is okay ... but in general the book attempts to have the reader buy into Hamilton and his develpment of the National Debt as a good thing in todays economic system.
It was set up originally to help our economy expand and to be used in a way such that in difficult times money would be borrowed so that in prosperous times it could be paid back. Although it is a factual account of a major portion of our Nations'Economic history it fails to take into account one thing in its summary, the Human Equation.
All things work great on paper but in this instance this is not the case. The current system, seeing that it has no intent of ever paying back the current debt, now has adopted the belief that as long as the debt to GNP ratio stays within + or - 5%, everything will be OK. This is where the book falls short, it doesn't analyse Hamiltons' theories as they apply today, accounting for Human Intervention. It instead tries to explain away our current economic problems as part of economic evolution. Not the case. Socialism works great on paper but fails in real life. Why.... Humanity. Simply put, if you borrow more than you could ever make or pay back, sooner or later you reach a point of critical mass (or you just keep printing more money, hence inflation).
None the less, if some basic, simplistic history is what you want want, here it is.
- John Steele Gordon has taken what could be an amazingly dull topic, limited in appeal, and translated it into a spectacular read for anyone with at least a basic education. This great little book is a welcome addition for folks interested in finance, the U.S. economy, and the national deficit. Nonetheless, despite its breezy style and short length (traits typically necessary for widespread appeal), I don't expect it will reach a wide audience. Consider yourself lucky that you've discovered this plain-language, excellent primer on how our national debt came to be!
The author's premise, like that of Alexander Hamilton, is that a national debt can be used constructively to monetize an economy. Both men were quite correct, and the debt served its purpose beautifully in supporting the fledging United States of America. It's subsequently been bastardized by numerous administrations, as a means of funding open-ended congressional and executive expenditures of middling value. Throughout the narrative of changes in the U.S. debt, the author details the creation and destruction of the National Bank of the United States. This institution flourished under Federalist rule, and languished or disappeared entirely when populist presidents (Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson) sat in office.
Overall, a remarkable book that will be discovered by too few, and certainly treasured by those lucky enough to discover it.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by J. Peter Steidlmayer and Steven B. Hawkins and Peter Steidlmayer and Steve Hawkins. By Wiley.
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3 comments about Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with Market Profile, 2nd Edition.
- This book can help to to identify the pattern in the market and trade the trend. However, the real time data and the program to give a graphical layout may not be easily obtained.
- This is an excellent read and well worth the investment. It will give any trader a better understanding of why markets do what they do. This book does not give a specific trading strategy (which was one of the things I was looking for) but rather insight into a tool that will support your trading and help you make decisions. This is the type of tool that the pros use. My biggest disappointment is the acknowledgement that Market Profile doesn't work like it used to, now you need new sophisticated tools and techniques that leverage Market Profile data as a starting point, which is convenient because the authors happen to have the software to do just that, Capflow32.
- The book is in two parts. In the first part, Steidlmayer gives some personal background and tells about how he developed the Market Profile(TM) method as well as gives some insights into why it works based on his experience. He describes points about using his methods before we really know much about what they even are. The concepts are not the usual technical analysis kinds of things. These are new (since about 1981) ways of looking at markets that are based the underlying process viewed with the help of some elementary statistical ideas. The primary concepts involve looking at the time the market spends at a price to determine value. Value is different from price. (Time seems to be a surrogate for volume but volume information was not available generally back when the methods were developed.)
In the second part of the book, Steve Hawkins attempts to explain more systematically the concepts of market profile. Some of the terminology is reasonably well explained, but the synthesis of the concepts seems to be lacking. I was not satisfied with the explanations. I felt I had to take his clues and figure out the ideas myself. I frequently found myself rereading passages two or three times to make sure I caught the ideas which were opaquely explained. I hope this is not the best explanation of Market Profile (it is the first book I have read on the topic, but I like it very well). Finally, the last chapter is pure unadulterated and unapologetic promotion of their products. I do not know anything about these, but I think I prefer CQG's graphics to their CapFlow graphics.
I would give this book five stars for originality, but only three, or maybe four stars, for clarity of explanation.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about Valuing Wall Street : Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets.
- The book painstakingly sets out the case for the q ratio, which appears to have merits as a method of valuing markets. There is no doubt that the markets remain overvalued, and are due for further correction, however the q ratio, along with other blunt tools, do not offer effective market timing abilities. The authors try to make a case for market timing, using a long term time horison however if the time horison is shortened the supposed "buy" and "sell" signals would not be decipherable as with Charting there would be confusing signals. The book therefore lacks practical application as a trading tool, however does offer an alternative for market valuation. By the way the problem of bear market risk can be overcome by adopting a buy-and-hold strategy, which is rebalanced annually using a value-averaging technique (see Edleson - Value Averaging).
- Although there's plenty of evidence one cannot time the market short term--just look at managed portfolios compared to major stock indexes--that does not mean it's not possible over much longer cycles. The usual metric, P/E ratio, for measuring these cycles is occasionally wrong, like once or twice a century, e.g. if earnings are unusually small, as in the Depression. Better to use something similar to price-to-book value, "q". Averaging over all companies, and looking back over the last hundred years of market data, q tells you when stocks are overpriced more reliably than P/E. If you buy stocks at below average q and sell them when q is above average, you'll outperform a buy and hold strategy.
Of course, people already ignoring P/E are unlikely to be swayed by a refinement. That's why the second aspect of this book is important. It's one of few books that tells you *not* to own stocks now. It presents historical data--someone unfortunate enough to have entered the market just before the 1929 crash would have had to wait 25 years to catch up with an all bond portfolio--to show how bad an investment stocks can be.
Holding bonds until P/E returns to single digits, where it was at the start of the bull market in 1982, will never appeal to some people, but that's this book's advice in a nutshell.
- It's hard to rate a book of this type. Some will look at with a jaundiced eye and give it a low rating, some will think carries great worth backed up with lots of research and give it a high rating.
I can sum up the gist of the book with one sentence. The stock market is often way overvalued and buying during those times will give poor return even if stocks are held for long periods. This information is valuable, but unfortunately, most of the type of people that get killed when the market corrects will not be the ones that read a book like this. As for me, I'm not even an investor, just a student looking to gain knowledge about markets in general. I found a lot of this book to be hard to read and filled with too many statistics and mathematical formulas. It could have been written in a more basic conversational tone and still have all the charts and math in an appendix. I can assure the reader that no stock broker is going to being singing the praises of this work, it simply states something they won't want to hear. There are times, and we may still be in such a time, that the stock market is simply overbought and money would be better off sitting on the side lines waiting for prices to be more realistic. I happen to agree with the basics they present here, they made a logical argument, and certainly the last bubble that burst proved that they weren't blowing smoke. As to the future, only time will tell, but with P/E ratios being so high, if I had to decide, I'd go with their analysis.
- The latest computed value of Q can always be found at http://www.smithers.co.uk/keydata.shtml . For example I visited that web page on 1-18-2004 and found: "As of 20th June, when the S&P 500 was at 995.73, the market was selling at 1.46 times its long-term average, according to q, and thus needs to fall by 31% to reach fair value." It is strongly advised that investors check this web page at least once a month for possible updates. A word to the wise is sufficient! (Also if you purchase the book, do not forget to look at the Virtual Appendix at http://www.valuingwallstreet.com/VApp.pdf )
- Written in 1999 to warn investors to get out of the stock market totally because prices were way too high compared to the underlying securities' net worth, Andrew Smithers and Stephen Wright were proven correct during the next three years as prices spiraled downward. The authors' measuring stick was "q," the Nobel prize-winning economist James Tobin's 1969 invention to value stocks. It is the simple formula of stock price divided by corporate net worth (replacement cost). Essentially, it works over time like an oscillator. They take considerable amount of space to prove it is a more reliable indicator of stock market value than dividends or P/E. And it foretold harrowing events when it was computed and published in early 2000 with NASDAQ at 5000. Now the bigger question: So, what use is it going forward from today?
Their method of argument is to chart 100 years of historical stock prices against historical q, then create "normal," "overvalued," and "undervalued" zones with which you should make investment decisions. A reversion to the mean (in this case downward) is what drives their prediction for an extended period of stock market "under performance" during the foreseeable future. Stocks were and still are overvalued, they say, and therefore should be avoided until values return to more "normal" levels. By the end of 1999, there were no shortages of bears calling for a crash of monstrous proportions based on any number of indicators, P/E and dividend yield included. As it turned out, all were correct. But as with all "fundamental" analysis, timing was lacking. Some bears had prowled the investment landscape for most of the decade and had come up empty until the turning of the millennium. Smithers and Wright, however, hit the market's nail on the head. Early on in their presentation, they admit that q is not very important most of the time because most of the time markets are not obviously overvalued or undervalued. And the authors do get sidetracked on whether you should pick stocks individually or go with index funds (they give 3 reasons why individual stock picking doesn't work). They do come through loud and clear that stocks are for buying AND selling, and although stocks are good for the long term, when they get too expensive, they should be avoided like the plague. The worth of the work is the powerful argument, intelligently presented and documented, as to why stock prices were sure to fall at the time the work was published. And fall they did. For awhile, anyway. Now, the question for you is not whether or not their data and logic make sense; it's whether you want to base your investment decisions on whether other people think it makes sense. And whether we like it or not, since there is no universal arbiter of stock market value except other people's money, investing comes down to Keynes' beauty contest (General Theory pages 154 - 156). If you want to be on the winning side, you don't vote for who you think is the prettiest; you vote for who you think others will consider the prettiest. Translated here, it means you should value stocks the way stocks have been valued over the past century by previous investors. The idea of q is based on what other people throughout history eventually decided were the limits of value. And yes, q says the market is still dangerously overvalued. But during the interlude of the past 14 months and 3000 Dow points (40% gain) prove, a lot of money has been left laying on the table by simply abandoning the investment environment completely until stocks once again become "cheap." Another Keynesism: "The market can stay irrational (overvalued/undervalued) longer than you can stay solvent."
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by Deborah McNaughton. By Dearborn Trade.
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5 comments about The Insider's Guide to Managing Your Credit: How to Establish, Maintain, Repair and Protect Your Credit.
- This book is very general and doesnt give very much advice on how to actually repair your credit. It doesnt really cover the different types of credit problems that people have.
- This book has put me on the right track to repair my credit. It has taught me how to deal with my credit problems. There is a lot of helpful information about credit, information that everybody should know. I strongly recommend this book to anyone who is like me and could use some expert credit advice!
- At last a book that can be used as a guide and tool to understanding the credit industry. Everybody has had unique situations that may have had an impact on their ability to keep their credit in good standing, but one thing is certain, the industry can not and will not distinguish between individual circumstances, if you missed a payment, end of story, you have a negative mark against your credit history. This book helped me gain an understanding of the credit terminology and assisted me in learning how to read and understand my credit report. You can't hide from your credit history and the mistakes you made in the past. So, learn "tricks" that will help remove negative marks on your credit report, learn that too many inquiries against your credit report can actually hurt your ability to obtain credit, or learn the differences between the credit agencies, plus a lot more. This book is a must for all people who have or will, try to obtain credit. Give yourself an advantage that few people have, learn your second identity, your credit history!
- Credit management expert Deborah McNaughton shows the reader how to establish, maintain, repair and protect his or her credit in The Insider's Guide To Managing Your Credit. The first half of this superbly presented "how to" book is on establishing credit, including information on the various types of credit, qualifying for credit, dealing with credit denials and credit reporting agencies, the credit application process, and even the use of credit to make money. The second half of The Insider's Guide To Managing Your Credit focuses on dealing with credit problems, working with collection agencies, getting out of debt, and repairing damaged credit. The informative, "reader friendly" text is enhanced with a section on "The Most Frequently Asked Questions and Their Answers"; listings of "Federal Government Publications" and "Regional Offices of the Federal Trade Commission"; a glossary; and an Index. Highly recommended!
- Ask anyone, and they will tell you that the American system of credit is one of the toughest schemes for an individual to understand. If, as it is my case, you are a foreigner, the problem only gets escalated to the maximum degree. This is the type of book one turns to when in serious need of credit advice. It is also, unfortunately, not as helpful as I was expecting it to be. At one point, it honestly made think that I'd suddenly become the "expert" Ms. McNaughton claims one should be on the subject (Page 119). And I hadn't even been halfway through the book!
The book is divided into three major parts:
- Establishing credit
- Dealing with credit problems
- Credit restoration / Credit repair
I found its main value in the numerous spreadsheets offered as a tracking tool for credit establishment and repair. Thus, we have timed sheets to achieve different goals, forms to track current and applied for credit cards, reports to the local and major credit bureaus, debt tracking, etc.
On Pages 116 through 118 there is an interesting but still kind of far-fetched idea about using 20 credit cards - yes, you read correctly, twenty! - to make money out of a calculated scheme to obtain downpayment for a mortgage. The process; however, seems complicated, and although I would agree with Ms. McNaughton that credit cards can actually be a good thing if used wisely, I found such suggestion on a book that technically has the purpose of teaching people how to better handle their credit issues a bit dangerous. Moreover, the world of credit has changed since 1998 (when the book was written), and some information is inaccurate. For example, Equifax no longer uses the criteria described on pages 84 and 85 in their reports.
Overall, save your time and your money and research the web or contact Consumer Credit Counseling Services. Your credit will appreciate it.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by B. J. Reed and John W. Swain. By Sage Publications, Inc.
The regular list price is $130.00.
Sells new for $90.40.
There are some available for $82.99.
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2 comments about Public Finance Administration.
- Most material dealing with public finance or budgeting delivers more drudgery than useful information. Reed and Swain cut through buzz words and cliches--their writng provides detailed explanation without confusing the reader, offering a better understanding of how money moves in the public sector. I definitely recommend starting with this book before you go anywhere else.
- This is a perfect book, in great condition. Thanks for the speediness in sending the book.
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Posted in Public Finance Economics (Wednesday, December 3, 2008)
Written by John J. Murphy. By Prentice Hall Press.
The regular list price is $65.00.
Sells new for $64.98.
There are some available for $17.65.
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5 comments about Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications.
- Murphy has collected, collated, condensed and presented just about every method of technically analysing the futures markets. His text, whether dissecting simple or abstruse concepts, is remarkably lucid. Comprehensive and comprehensible, this is a reference futures traders must own. All I would have asked for in addition would be more suggestions for implementing trading strategies, but that, in fact, might require another book. If Murphy were to write it, he might outsell all those fake futures promoters and their $195 "courses" combined.
- Murphy has taken a very technical analysis of a "dry" subject and turned it into a readable, useful guide that should by read (and referred to often) by everyone who dares trade in the futures markets. It's a great first book on the subject, and a great book for experts alike.
- Murphy has written a very good reference book, useful for brushing up on the finer points of charting, indicators and so forth. He also does a good job of going over the various technical theories with a straight face, neither endorsing favorites nor casting ridicule on the ones that are more logically suspect (ahem, cough, gann-elliott-fibonacci, cough cough).
The only thing I really took issue with was Murphy's habit of trying to predict the size and extent of price moves, rather than sticking with more general observations regarding momentum and overall movement.
Looking for something to happen before there is evidence of its arrival is a dangerous game for technical players, methinks. To devotees of the approach, a friendly warning -- be careful not to become a fundamentechnicalyst. Meaning, always keep in mind that effective technical analysis highlights probability rather than makes predictions.
Since I just made up the word for this review, I'll now throw in the definition: A "fundamentechnicalyst" is one who makes predictions, just like the run of the mill fundamental analyst does... except the fundamentechnicalyst is making predictions based on technicals -- chart patterns and various indicators, rather than supply and demand, weather, politics, etcetera.
In giving advance notice of how the movie is going to end, the approaches have similarity in their folly. The answer (in my opinion) is to not say, "aha! because of pattern ABC, result XYZ must now occur...."
Instead, `tis better to say, "aha! because of pattern ABC, there is a favorable probability that XYZ could occur. But I recognize this is an odds game which means 1) it is normal, reasonable and expected for me to be wrong a portion of the time (the odds say so), and B) I must have a risk point, just in case this is "one of those occurrences" where the outcome falls against me.
The difference in the thought process is subtle but critical. A hard prediction locks you in, creates a psychological commitment, brings your ego into the game, and threatens to screw up your mindset in general. Whereas if you recognize trading is essentially nothing but an odds game, then flexibility and peace of mind have a better shot of remaining intact.
One of the hidden gems of this book was an excellent outline of why the contrarian method works. I don't want to give away Murphy's goods here, so I will just say that he points out a few very interesting reasons why it is natural for the majority to be wrong at turning points, and it is not simply because the masses lack trading ability or intelligence (though that is a factor, of course; the lumbering beast called Crowd is known for strong back and weak mind.)
To sum up, buy this book if you are new to technicals, if you want to brush up on your knowledge, or if you just want a handy reference. But be wary of the prediction trap. Keep your understanding of probability and odds intact.
- I'm very happy finding so much reveiw about this book. now ,
future marketing
ng is growing fastly in my country .But here, so little book introduct about it.
can i buy this book,through Amazon?
Now ,i am in china!
- John Murphy's book is a modern day classic on the topic of technical analysis. His writing is precise and easy to understand- novice traders will especially appreciate this. Regardless of the title, the principles and techniques described in this book are applicable to not only the futures market, but to all markets, including stocks and forex. Highly recommended to all traders!
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