5 comments about The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy.

1. I thought Hard Green was a good enviro contrarian take. This one is not nearly as good.



2. Peter W. Huber and Mark P. Mills have written a powerful book about subtle concepts: heat, energy, power, and order. The book is a story of people's use of energy in increasingly clever, useful, and efficient ways to make life better for themselves and all who have followed and will follow them. The authors also make bold predictions. For example, they say that internal combustion engines will not disappear and, indeed, will actually multiply in coming decades.... Regarding these changes, which are already under way in the market, Huber and Mills declare, "The best thing U.S. policy makers can do is step out of the way and let the market find its own way to the extraordinary future that now beckons" (p. 76).
   
   The book offers many policy-relevant facts. For example, when a dilute form of energy, such as wind power or the solar energy striking rooftops, is made into better-ordered, more useful energy, the capital items needed for the transformation are often expensive. The total cost of the resulting energy supply reflects in part the costs of the energy inputs into making, transporting, installing, and repairing the equipment, as well as the cost of transporting power to where it is used (for example, constructing and maintaining power lines). When the raw energy is concentrated, these costs are usually much lower than when more machinery must be used to gather, convert, and transport the purer, better-ordered power to users. Forcing or subsidizing the use of more dispersed, more costly energy sources is neither energy efficient nor cost effective....
   
   A more energy-efficient method can reduce the energy consumption in a particular instance, but central planners often fail to recognize the even more efficient methods that might be employed in those circumstances. Those who bear the cost of energy (and energy-using devices), however, have an incentive to find better ways. Of course, more efficiency itself breeds innovative uses of the more efficient energy technology, and total energy use, summed over all uses, grows. More and better energy use, the authors point out in chapter after chapter, is making us more powerful and improving our environment in almost every way, and we are better off as a result....
   
   In "Saving the Planet with Coal and Uranium" (chapter 10), Huber and Mills argue cogently that the United States is leading the way back toward carbon balance by using and promoting land-efficient, fossil-fuel-using farming techniques that allow farm land to revert to forest, which sequesters carbon and becomes a carbon sink. They cite (controversial) evidence that expanding forests in North America are sequestering more carbon each year than is emitted here. They also observe: "Over the long term, societies that expand and improve their energy supplies overwhelm those that don't.... Civilization, like life, is a Sisyphean flight from chaos. The chaos will prevail in the end, but it is our mission to postpone that day for as long as we can and to push things in the opposite direction.... Energy isn't the problem. Energy is the solution" (p. xxvi).



3. Huber and Mills's argument in this book is basically summarized on p. 43:"...technologies of digital power...will redefine,yet again,how much energy we want and how much we can get.We will want more-much more.And we will get it easily.Unless,somehow,our optimism,drive,courage,and will give way to lethargy and fear ".
   This translates as the assertion that there are immense new scientific breakthroughs, just around the bend ,with respect to the generation and use of energy,in technology that will completely revolutionize the world.Unfortunately,these claims appear to be similar to the " cold fussion " claims made about 15 years ago and the claims made by Gary Winnick(Global Crossing) about the limitless,future growth of fiber optic cable applications.
   The claim that these solutions will be spontaneously generated in the near future are essentially based on nothing but additional claims and assertions.The best existing solution is the one offered at the turn of the century by Theodore Roosevelt-conservation and reduced energy consumption.



4. This book suffers from some gushing enthusiasm and at times seems like you are being presented a glorified power point presentation. That said I strongly encourage you to suffer through the initial "rah-rah" because once you get to the substance it is a very thoughtful and thought-inducing read.
   
   We live in a time, perhaps it has always been so, that arguments are usually decided within the first 20 to 30 words that a presenter delivers. Then, once someone has made up their mind on a subject they wont even listen to the first dozen words that are being delivered before they immediately evaluate the validity of the argument.
   
   This book will teach you about energy; what it actually means, its various forms and how we have throughout history increased its effectiveness. I do not mean in a scientific manner, I mean in a practical manner.
   
   Simply stated a ton of coal is less valuable than a tenth of a second of a precise laser burst aimed at a specific target. Yet in terms of energy there is 10,000 times more energy in the coal and in the process of creating the laser burst 99.9% of the energy was lost. But it wasn't lost, it is the necessary cost of creating the laser pulse; not because of inefficiencies or indifference on our part but it is inherent in the physical structure of the universe.
   
   Every negative review I have read of this book stated that they did not understand the basic premise of the authors, that they did not spend sufficient time and struggle to grasp what was said, but because the results of their argument did not support the preconception of the reviewer that the book was flawed.
   
   This is a thought provoking work and will change your perspectives. I strongly encourage everyone to read the book.



5. The authors of The bottomless Well are not worried about running out of oil. They are not concerned about peak oil or any of the other resource problems others are concerned about. They have done a lot of research and have made certain to share the results with us. They seem to enjoy pointing out the failures in past attempts to encourage conservation or efficiency.
   
   In particular they devote a chapter to "the efficiency paradox" otherwise knows as "Jevons paradox"; that is the effect of increasing efficiency in energy use results in more energy consumption. There are numerous examples since the industrial revolution, and The Bottomless Well reference a number of them.
   
   Huber and Mills take a long historical view of energy use. They reference James Watt's steam engine frequently and the dawn of agriculture repeatedly. What we learn from this is that there has been relentless improvement in efficiency; there is no reason to think that will end. This happens without admonishments to conserve energy, or government funded efficiency programs.
   
   The authors conclude that we will never run out of energy since we will always use it more efficiently, and will always find better ways to extract it. They dismiss any possible contribution from alternative energy without really bothering to provide much of an argument. They briefly mention the problems of pollution and global warming, but neither insight nor proposals in that regard.
   
   The writing is dense and poorly organized. One of the authors is a fellow of the conservative Manhattan Institute. The book reads like a collection of talking points or debating points that could be used by an advocate of libertarian energy policies. Furthermore it is rather repetitive, the same points are made over and over again with little new information.
   
   While the book is in the a poorly written polemic, I found a number of new ideas and many new facts. It provides a different point of view from most of what I have read on this topic. The combination of perspective and new details made the book worthwhile, if not actually enjoyable.

5 comments about Notes On The Theory Of Choice (Underground Classics in Economics).

1. I have read this book more than 10 times since I came across it. Every time I read this book, I find something new. This book is based on lecture notes on axiomatic choice theory presented by David Kreps(the author) at the Stanford University. If you want to major in economics, in particular, choice theory, this book will enable you to access this area very easily.



2. A terrific book. If you want a comprehensible introduction to decision theory which includes all the most important stuff (von Neumann-Morgenstern, Savage, Anscombe-Aumann), look no further. You will not find anything else even close.



3. I think this book certainly deserves its good reputation as a primer on the variations and developments of utility theory. It must be noted that the book requires a fair amount of mathematical background that students coming to choice theory from non-economic backgrounds might not have. The book may be almost inscrutable if you are not ready to think mathematically about choice an aren't familiar with mathematic-decision speak. To that reader, I would refer you to a book called "Thinking and Deciding" by Jonathan Baron and/or the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making by Scott Plous. For a reader with a psychology background such as myself, those were much gentler introductions, although the material in this book is worth mastering if you want to do serious work in the field of decision making research.



4. The book seems harmless at the beginning with the mathematical proofs of some binary relations, which require a little bit of logic - and very careful writing down, if you have to turn in the problems as homework. But it gets more and more challenging - and pushes you to use some Real Analysis and Probability Theory concepts to really master the issues presented. This is not a reference book, nor a traditional textbook: it is a collection of lectures on economics of decision. The Von Neumann Morgernstern model is developed in all its magnitude, going further than any game theory textbook. You start to feel the 3 axioms and the numerical representation as second nature! But then, the Aumann/Anscombe and Savage models are introduced, as well as the limitations of the perfect VNM model. Everything you've learned seems to fall apart.
   The problem sets are mainly excursions, in the very Kreps' style (if you have read his Course on Microeconomic Theory, you know what half a page problem without any equation is). In general, you don't need economics to get a good grip of the content: it is decision theory, not micro theory. Engineers and mathematicians will love it - and some economists will find it too tough!



5. Kreps has written an updated version of Savage's The Foundations of Statistics(1954).Like Savage,he is unable to deal with what Savage called vagueness,what Ellsberg called ambiguity and what John Maynard Keynes called uncertainty in the General Theory(1936)and weight of the evidence in the A Treatise on Probability(1921)in chapters 6 and 26 .Keynes defined an index to measure the extent of the vagueness,ambiguity,uncertainty or weight of the evidence upon which the probability estimates, calculated by the decision maker ,would be based.Letting w equal the weight of the evidence(or the vagueness,ambiguity or uncertainty of the evidence),0<=w<=1.A w=o means that the decision maker is dealing with a situation of ignorance.A w between 0 and 1(0
   
   

5 comments about Beyond Reengineering: How the Process-Centered Organization is Changing Our Work and Our Lives.

1. After the first nine chapters, I thought this book was better than the original, Reengineering the Corporation. But the second half of the book wanders off into repetition, ambiguity and irrelevance. Oh well, it is still worth the cost just to read the first half of this sequel, because it adds depth to the original book.



2. I recently had the privilige of attending a Dr. Hammer seminar in Boston and can tell you that this book tracks closely with his seminar which was the best I have ever attended. The book however goes into much greater detail and depth than a one day high level seminar can go to. The portions that described the first principles of business (chapter 6)and the dramatic impact that process centered organizations will have on employees (the entire book)were standouts. I have already used information contained here in my work as a consultant for a major federal systems integrator. I am also going to try and get my children who are attending college and high school to read at least chapter 14 (What I Tell My Children)so that they can take advantage of Dr Hammer's guidance with respect to the selection of fulfilling educational and career choices. I think it is the best book on business that I have ever read.

   I also understand the book was written for a general audience but it would have been nice to have some footnotes and research to underpin some of the pronouncements of business benefits. I tried to track the performance of American Standard, Texas Instruments, and GTE to see if I could confirm Hammer's assertions but it would have taken too much time. Maybe he can publish an addendum for those of us interested in such matters.




3. Sorry, but I'm not as impressed by Hammer as he is of himself. I work for a large Fortune 100 company as a Director of Business Process Reengineering, and I'm NOT convinced after reading this that Hammer has rolled up his sleeves and gotten dirty (we all think it but no one will admit to it out loud). Just read the chapter about process owners and his theory about managing the employee and it is clear he has littler or no experience working with front-line $20K/year employees that are found in our operations. Sure, if you're working with professionals making $50K+ his theories are more plausible.

   My boss swears by Hammer but when it comes to planning and performing the Redesign work she calls on my team to get it done. We aren't disciples of Hammer, but everyone on my team has read this book and in order to understand the terminology. Using the methodology found in this book will be of minimal use for planning and completing your BPR.




4. I come from four generations of independent businessmen, none of whom needed a book to tell them how to run one. And none of whom ever failed at the business they owned. I currently work for a company that has been in business for 102 years, and this book has sold some of the marketing types in management down the Hammer River of "process", whose implementation and loose interpretation of this book has resulted in mass retirements; fragmentation of skilled staff; loss of communication between working departments, and physical movements of employees that follow no logical purpose. The effect upon moral as a whole has de-motivated all of us. You cannot come to work or take a break without small groups of people venting their outrage at what's going on. There are increased hand-offs and rather than report to one person, now we must go through five, wait for a number to be generated for each task we perform (2 to 5 days). It's the craziest way to run a business that I've ever seen! We are left trying to figure out who is the leader and how we are supposed to get a project completed. None of us can figure out why management would go along with what Mr. Hammer proposes, when we won the JD Powers award for Customer Satisfaction in 2003. If we were not successfully doing our jobs before this "process change implementation", I'd like to know how this company stayed in business for 102 years! His proposals have intentionally set us up to fail. The only reason I can find for a company to use his recommendations is if they intend to be bought, want to get rid of all their employees, and want to cause general dishelvement and frustration. We were told that no jobs would be eliminated, this was not a reorganization, not a restructure. And yet entire departments that were instrumental in the core business of this company have been dissolved. And those who have retired would not have otherwise done so, had this company not chosen Mr. Hammer's path. Staff that has left is not being replaced. And no one prefers the job title "Subject Matter Expert" over the one they had before. Nobody wants "Process Leader" on their business cards. We all want to be productive, to feel that our work has real purpose and relevance. Mr. Hammer would have us all be nothing more than the by-product of some process that was unnecessary. I'd like to be there the day they lock Mr. Hammer away for insanity. I guess it's worth the price of this book just to buy it for a dartboard (which is precisely what I intend to do). Yes, Mr. Hammer, this has definately impacted my life, and I hope I never see you stranded by the side of the road: the result will be the implementation of a process you didn't mention in your book...



5. This book is heavily tied to its bestselling predecessor and therefore offers little excitement. Ofcourse, some new elements are added and forgotten subjects are drawn upon, but this book offers just more reengineering and doesn't go beyond the first book.
   
   Is this book not worth reading then? Absolutely not, you should actually read it. But not before completing the first book. Still thirsty after that one? Then get a refill with this one.

4 comments about The Trouble With Prosperity: The Loss of Fear, the Rise of Speculation, and the Risk to American Savings.

1. Mr. Grant's book is good and again he demonstrates great knowledge of the history of financial markets. His writing can be a little bit dry at times, making it sometimes difficult to follow the thread of argument in each chapter. Grant gives a compelling case that the cyclical nature of booms and busts isn't over and suggests several times that these cycles are really beneficial to a country's economic health. He suggests that efforts by governments (notably the Japanese) to suppress the effects of natural market cycles inevitably lead to disaster. I think, however, his thesis is undercut by his own research that suggests that moderate economic expansions yield only moderate economic contractions. Several times he suggests that we should strive for stronger expansions, thereby ultimately leading to more severe contractions, but never really provides a compelling case as to why. In other words, Grant does not present persuasive reasons as to why moderate economic cylces are inferior. In any event, this is another first rate book by Grant. I strongly recommend it for those people who think markets (and economies) only go UP



2. For an extensive and mostly favorable review of Mr. Grant's, The Trouble with Prosperity, by an economist that shares Mr. Grants's sympathies with the Austrian school of econoimics go to the following URL:



3. Record levels in marginal debt, speculation frenzy, and risk ceasing to have negative implications because financial prosperity suggested a lack of business volatility, as financial authorities stamped out emerging crisis and characterized financial prosperity, in 1996. Stability had become the goal of national economic policy. The fed fixed the 1994, Mexico Peso devaluation crisis and at the about the same time removed unwanted fluctuations in the commodities market; in 1996, the US government's intervention in oil and cattle markets drove upward adjustments in price; intervention in the copper market by Bank of Japan, Bank of England and help from regulatory authorities of United Kingdom and US coordinated policy and price for copper. Feats of macroeconomic management have only deepened the faith of steady returns through patient investment. Money poured into equity mutual funds in the 1996s but the equity never came. The growing faith for stability became a powerful force for instability. Adding equipment for growth does not create value; this can and will lead to over capacity; what is needed is an increase in productivity that matches demand.
   
   Markets are inevitable, irresistible, and indispensable. Even if a central bank could create a state of economic perfection, measure out growth in the ideal, and control non-inflationary does of money supply; humans would respond by overpaying for stocks and bonds and would not stop until painful overvaluation occurred, as the marginal rate of return would fall short of expectation and the price return to the mean. The function of Bear markets and cyclical down turns is cut short price error.
   
   In the 1990s, the Fed discount rate stood at 3% and caused a stock boom that saved the banks. The stock market boom was touched off by low interest rates. The Fed had bailout the Bank of New England previously and the boom helped the New England economy recover and equity capital grew propelling bank earnings to reach 10.5% per annum. The Stock market started worrying about bank prosperity and FDIC was overflowing with funds reviving from near bankruptcy. Banks implemented prosperity attenuation plans 1) repurchased their own stock 2) merged with other banks 3) and stepped up dividends attempting to neutralize capital. Investors began driving up the P/E of small banks betting they would merge with bigger banks. The big banks had lower valuation of shares and fatter dividends than the smaller banks. The 1980s there were 4,185 national banks with $114 billion in equity and by 1995, the national bank number had dropped to 2,861 with $190 billions of equity. In the 90s, it was believed that $35 billion of equity would be paid out in dividends leaving a $65 billion problem. Shareholders wanted the benefits of compounding of their equity. Marginal interest rates were cheap but not so cheap as to attract clients leading from a boom to a bust. Too much lending would lead to distortions in the credit card boom. The credit card boom was hazardous: 5 percent of CC payments dropped to 2 percent of total payments; higher risk clients were accepted because it was known, they cared higher amounts of debt even though default risk was high; increased speculation in credit card debt turning a profit and encouraged banks too extend credit.



4. I was hoping to dive into this book and find proposals on what to do about all the Mexicans that have poured into this country due to our God-given prosperity but instead the author delves into a boring story of buildings in 1950's New York and rental rates.
   
   Verdict: Boring and irrelevant.

5 comments about Structure and Change in Economic History.

1. In this book North modifies the rationality assumption of neoclassical theory and puts individuals into a more complex framework of decision-making. According to my reading, this new model is characterized by an emphasis on incentive constrains (structures/institutions) and a dynamic process of learning (both individual and collective).

   But here North runs into a problem with the infamous structure/agency dichotomy. That is, he means to rise above methodological individualism by incorporating a broad, deterministic social "structure" into his analysis -- "by structure I mean those characteristics of a society which we believe to be the basic determinants of performance" (3). However, he also seems to chalk a great deal of explanatory power up to individual leadership, calculation and rationality: the state specifying rules of the game to maximize rents (24) and also: "throughout history, individuals given a choice between a state-however exploitative it might be-and anarchy, have decided for the former" (24). But if there's such a powerful structure, then can individuals really "choose" their fate? How much leeway is there for strategic calculation? On page 32 he seems to say that the masses have no power to choose: "institutional innovation will always come from rulers rather than constituents since the latter would always face the free rider problem". Is North's structure (and institutions) merely an aggregation of the choices of masses of agents, or is it the strategic choices of a few ruling principals and their agents, or is it the evolution of an impersonal body of culture, ideas, law, etc., or is it all three? And if it's all three, then is he trying to incorporate too much into the concept of "institutions", until they become tautological? What CANNOT be an institution under his definition, and if everything is an institution, then how can we formulate testable, falsifiable hypotheses about social change?

   North defines institutions as "the humanly devised constrains that construct human interaction" (p. 344); or, the rules of the game in a society. Thus, it is clear that North is trying to provide an explanation of the dynamic interaction among many factors, which is always a difficult task. But he is to be commended for modifying neoclassical thought in this provocative new way, potentially opening a path for a whole new research agenda in the social sciences.




2. This book aims to explain the structure and evolution of institutions. The author, Nobel laureate Douglass North, concludes that the tension between gains from specialization and attendant costs is "the basic source of structure and change in economic history." Institutions arise to exploit the gains from division of labor or to reduce transaction costs. This theory appears to offer considerable economy and power of explanation.
   
   North asserts that, in the prehistoric era, human population increase would lead to declining labor productivity as resources were exhausted. New technologies could increase productivity but, if property rights were nonexclusive, as they must have been in a nomadic hunter-gatherer society, new technologies would simply accelerate resource depletion. Only if a tribe or band could exclude rivals from exploiting the resource, as they could in a settled agricultural society, would the productivity gains from new technology be sustained. The advantage that agriculture offered, then, was the opportunity to establish exclusive communal property rights. This produced what North calls the first economic revolution.
   
   The first economic revolution, occasioned by the rise of agriculture, produced the state, "the most fundamental achievement of the ancient world." The state specialized in providing security, keeping order within societies and protecting them from outside threats, while the complex demands of an agricultural economy (compared to those of a hunter-gatherer economy) required increased specialization throughout the rest of society as well. Over time, new military technologies led to larger states and more representative forms of government as rulers were forced to make concessions to their constituents to compete militarily with other rulers.
   
   The industrial revolution, which North refers to as the second economic revolution, was largely a result of better specified and enforced property rights that raised the private returns to invention and led to an invention "industry." The industrial revolution brought tremendous gains in the standard of living but required new institutions to achieve gains from specialization without losing them to attendant transaction costs.
   
   North notes that transaction costs would be prohibitive without a normative system that encourages compliance with contractual obligations. Accordingly, concurrent with the industrial revolution, we see a concerted effort by elites to inculcate the values of hard work, thrift, and sobriety among the working classes. In fact, North has reflected deeply on the role of ideology in an industrial society. Changes in knowledge and technology affect relative prices and thus affect perceptions of fairness. Differences in occupation or geographic location also give rise to different perceptions of how output should be distributed. "Ideological entrepreneurs" capitalize on these different perceptions. Successful ideologies must provide an explanation of history that plausibly accounts for current conditions. Ideologies must be flexible so that they can attract new adherents and accommodate changed conditions. Most importantly, to effect change, successful ideologies must overcome the free rider problem. Their ability to do so will be inversely related to the legitimacy of existing institutions.
   
   An interesting question asked early on in the book is, why do states persistently fail to establish property rights that would permit high rates of economic growth? He explains that states first maximize returns for the ruler and then, subject to this constraint, try to reduce transaction costs throughout the economy. Where the ruler is an individual or the representative of a small elite group, the interests of rulers will not normally coincide with those of society as a whole.
   
   Structure and Change in Economic History offers considerable insight into fundamental historical forces. It will come as no surprise to those who have read this work that North won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1993 for his use of economic theory and quantitative methods to explain economic and institutional change.



3. Do you want to know why the USA are rich and powerful and why Russia, for example, can't copy its way ? Why is export of formal institutions impossible in this world without considering ideology, mental structures and so on..
   And don't even try to force others to be like you, to eat hamburgers and drive fords. We are different! and it lies beneath - in history.
   It's the only positive and constructive idea that appears in ones mind when reading North. Let his theory be week and not scientific enough, let him mix neoclassics with institutional economics and history - this eclectics will do good for you as a killer of brain limits.
   peace!



4. Together with his more recent Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (1990), D.C.North provides here an indispensable framework to reflect on the problems of social transformation that underlie economic growth and development. He proffers no magic wand, but he describes the long processes implied in institution building which no development theoretician or practitioner should ever ignore.



5. Structure and Change in Economic History is an insightful and informative book. Much of what you find here is standard Comparative Institutional analysis, as developed by Mancur Olson, Ronald Coase, and James Buchanan. North aims at understanding institutions as humanly devised structure within which we all interact. Institutions are constraints that enable us to deal with real problem: free riding, high transaction costs, coordination failures... To some extent we must understand institutions in terms of utilitarian calculations. However, we must not limit our analysis to the utilitarian calculus of welfare economics.
   
   Institutions are founded upon ideology. Ideological change drives institutional change. The aim of ideology is to "energize groups to behave contrary to a simple hedonistic individual calculation of costs" (p53). Ideology is definitely important to understanding institutions. But New Institutional and Public Choice Economists tend to ignore ideology, in favor of explaining institutions strictly in terms of utility maximizing choice.
   
   We can see how ideology plays out with institutions that are relatively insulated from pressure groups and voters. Life tenure for judges might enable them to rule on cases based on their worldviews, rather than narrow utilitarian considerations. We must examine the role of `intellectual entrepreneurs' who develop `contrasting worldviews'. North has the right kind of mix between the issues that economists and other academics explore. Economists are right about the need for understanding human behavior in terms of a utilitarian calculus. However, economists have often erred by ignoring factors like ideology. North makes no such mistakes.

1 comments about Principles of Microeconomics (7th Edition) (Series in Economics).

1. I used this text for a distance-learning economics class I took this year. It was an excellent conceptual introduction. Reading it would allowed you to teach yourself a bit about Microeconomics, if you so desire.

   In particular, the concepts are explained clearly and succinctly. The authors use a variety of metaphors to daily life that are understandable to practically any adult. The book makes Micro interesting and relatable.

   The summary points at the end of each chapter (as well as the key points highlighted in bold lettering throughout the text) allow you to review quickly. There are a lot of good practice problems although the answers are not included in the text.

   Overall, I recommend the book highly. My only complaint is that the book is not particularly quantitative or mathematical. That is a strength, in that the book is more easily understandable, but it is also a weakness in that very quantitative people are sometimes left hanging, wanting a mathematical proof of a particular concept.

No comments about Business Cycles: History, Theory and Investment Reality.

1 comments about Microeconomics (MyEconLab Series).

1. This is a really good book if you want to learn the basics of micro economics. The topics are split up nicely into sections, the definitions are clear and concise, and the material is backed up with plenty of graphs and diagrams.
   
   The reason this book only gets 3 stars:
   
   1) It's expensive for a paperback. After being hauled around in my backpack for a semester, some of the pages started falling out. Good luck selling this book after the bindings go out.
   
   2) The supplemental MyEconLab, the only testing and quizzing portion, has problems. It only works in Internet Explorer when you install the necessary plugins. Tough luck for those of us who use Linux and/or Firefox.
   
   On top of that, MyEconLab is finicky. Many of the graphing problems will be counted wrong if you graph a line one unit too long, even though it is still a correct solution. At other times, a missing negative sign or a rounding error will lose you credit on the entire, multi-part question. Sometimes, MyEconLab will count an answer wrong for no reason. Pearson Education has supposedly been fixing the bugs so they may or may not be a problem anymore.
   
   My final gripe with MyEconLab is that if you buy the book used, you have to shell out more cash to gain access to the online supplement.
   
   Overall, if you want a good textbook to learn micro economics, this book is not bad. You can probably find books with similar information and a hard cover for about the same price. As long as you buy it used and don't use the online portion, I recommend this book. If you are counting on using MyEconLab, you may be in for a disappointment.

5 comments about The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage.

1. I love this book. Being a contrarian by nature, I enjoy this way of examining the business cycle for the best strategic moves that often use moving AGAINST the obvious move of the trend. While this is often the correct move, it is oftentimes exceedingly difficult to see and even harder to time just right. Still, the rewards can be great when it can be pulled off.
   
   The book draws on real life examples for the things that work and the things that did not work. The author has a concept of the Master Cyclist (meaning a master of the business cycle) versus a reactive cyclist who always seems to be getting into trouble by doing the wrong thing and too late. The old saying that one shouldn't confuse a bull market with management skill holds true here. It is understandable that people tend to stick with what they THINK made them successful until it is too late, but we shouldn't applaud them for it either.
   
   Another issue about being a Master Cyclist and especially for those times when going against the trend of the majority, is that what the majority trend is tends to change. So, a successful method tends to breed copies, so the way to counter-punch also changes.
   
   Peter Navarro uses the image of a bicycle wheel with the spokes dividing it into a six slice pie to present his points. The six slices the Master Cyclist must master are: Capital Expenditures, Acquisitions & Divestitures, Human Resources Management, Production & Inventory Control, Marketing & Pricing, and Risk Management.
   
   Obviously, not all these topics matter in every situation or for every business. But the Master Cyclist understands which matter and when they matter. He knows when to acquire cash and lower debt. She knows when acquisitions, no matter how attractive strategically, are not worth the price. He knows when to add staff and cherry pick talent from the competition when the competition is shedding staff. She knows how to manage capacity and inventory to not get caught short as things take off and to knot let inventory build up that is not only eating up cash, but is becoming obsolete. She knows how to price for market share and profit and to not pretend they can set prices when they are really are price taking enterprise. And especially, he knows how to manage risk in the best way so that price swings in core commodities don't eat up profits, and when profits are at risks from exchange rates.
   
   This is a very fine book and I recommend it for anyone interested in corporate strategy. It isn't just about doing the right thing, it is also about doing the right thing at the right time and to the right degree. Pulling that off more than once is evidence of real management talent. The only thing I would encourage you to do is to dig into the illustrative stories provided in the book to be sure you understand ALL the details. You know what is in the those pesky little facts....



2. I always enoy those shows on televiion where people are predicting the future. The overwhelming tendency is for the forecasters to predict that the future is going to continue about what it's doing now. If we're in a recession, they see nothing that looks like it's going to pull us out of the recession. If we're in a boom, the general consensus is that we are just starting a boom and that there's nothing that looks like it means the end of the boom.
   
   Instead we have a lot of evidence that whatever is going on will change. Boom cycles, bust cycles happen. Most companies, it seems, ignore any idea at all of a long term trend. This quarter is down, fire people (really good for morale), cut back everything you can. This quarter is up, try to expand like crazy, making up for lost time -- just in time for the next down turn.
   
   Dr. Navarro understands the business cycle and in this book explains the cycle that business follows with special attention to people, production, credit and so on.
   
   Then there's a chapter on forecasting tools. Knowing what to do is a lot easier if you know what the future holds. Here the model shows weakness. There are a lot of stories about companies that guess right, or wrong about the future. Predicting the future however reminds me of the old saying: 'Predicting the future is easy, it's being right that's hard.'



3. "The Well-Timed Strategy" can be applied to you, your company, and your investing. This is a very informative, practical, and useful book that deserves a lot more attention. There's a lot of variety that's relevant and each chapter can be read in the order you choose. The index is very useful to go straight to the topic or concept, also.
   
   Many specific examples and companies are noted, such as Xilinx, Nucor, United Airlines, Intel, Lowe, Soho China, Dupont, Labor Ready, South West Airlines, FedEx, IBM, Cemex from Mexico, the United Airlines Contract, and many more.
   
   One of the many useful points in "The Well-Timed Strategy" is hiring through the the different economic cycles. Tapping the best available talent and also securing the best deal. Here is a paraphrase from page 73: A "Reactive Cyclist" keeps hiring employees at premium wages into the late stages of economic expansion. When the recession emerges they start massive layoffs which often leads to other employees leaving because of low morale. The Master Cyclist use a variety of means at this stage to avoid to pit-falls and also retain talent.
   
   At the bottom of the recessionary trough the labor pool will be deepest and wage pressures least. This is the time to hire the most talented employees at bargain wages (Navarro, 73). By "Cherry Picking" this Master cyclist maintains a solid competitive advantage in getting a skilled and talented workforce and lower labor costs (Navarro, 73).
   
   Spending throughout the cycles:
   Be watchful of too much capital expansion during boom times. A concept referred to as "build the empire syndrome." This creates large cash flow needs. Revenue may fall. Cut back when a recessions seem imminent. The Master cyclist will engage in capital expenditures during a recession, to be ready for new innovation when the recovery begins (Navarro, 37).
   
   A good detailing of diversification is covered. Once case study is IBM vs. Hewlett-Packard. IBM is diversifying into such areas as outsourcing, web hosting, and services, why HP remain in computer hardware.
   
   There are many well-chosen quotes by known industry leaders, and they are edited to fit perfectly with the chapter and topic at hand, to augment the point Peter Navarro is making. (Even Robert Frost's "Road Not Taken" gets a plug.)
   
   The constant array of natural and human-made events affect the cycle and influence what needs to be done and what is, actually done. The concept of "Chaos Theory," when a butterfly flaps its wings in China it causes a metaphorical typhoon half-way around the world. El Nino affects coffee and cocoa prices, Tsunamis in South East Asia cause increased demand for medicines to counter the resulting epidemics of cholera and typhoid. A massive earthquake in Taiwan drives up semi-conductor prices. "If it's raining in Brazil, buy Starbucks." The chicken restaurant 'El Pollo Loco' acted swiftly when they foresaw a drought in Australia and the simultaneous mad cow threat hit. They knew the price for beef would increase, followed by chicken, so secured fixed priced contracts before the price spikes (Page 176). Oil prices, Terrorism, disease, war, foreign government subsidies, and many other are listed.
   
   "The Well-Times Strategy" is Well-rounded, useful book. The index is is excellent.



4. This handy, concise compendium offers managers a series of tips on managing through changing business cycles, and illustrates its advice with intriguing actual cases. The book originated in the five-year "Master Cyclist Project," launched to teach business-cycle management to MBA students at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California in Irvine. Author Peter Navarro's lively evidence shows managers who take the right steps but at the wrong times and, thus, invariably meet ill fortune. He also shows managers taking steps that conventional wisdom regards as foolish (e.g., upping advertising during recessions) and meeting with invariable success. It may seem just a bit too neat. But, even if you don't agree with every detail of this analysis, the book's cases are strong and its underlying principles are sound. Ride the business cycle or it will ride you. Just as a contrarian investor buys in bad times and sells when times are soaring, so the counter-cyclical manager invests during bad times and spends cautiously during the good. We recommend this book as a useful antidote to groupthink.



5. There are plenty of business books that tell you *what* to do and *how* to do it, but few which talk about *when*. That's the key difference in Peter Navarro's The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage. By understanding the timing of business cycles, a business person can make moves that position them well for the coming up- or down-tick in the economy.
   
   Contents: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive; Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures; The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High; The Art of "Cherry Picking" and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resource Manager; "Macromanaging" Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain; Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons; Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables; Proactive Profiting from Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks; When You Can't Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!; Surviving - and Prospering from - the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease; The Master Cyclist's Favorite Forecasting Tools; Concluding Thoughts; The Master Cyclist Project's Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team; A Business Cycle Primer; Notes; Index
   
   Navarro argues that a close examination of the business cycle (becoming a Master Cyclist) can help you make the right choices for your business in terms of when to do certain things. Based on economic forecasting tools (covered near the end), it's possible to have a better than average view into where the economy is headed, whether it's a recession or an expansion. These indicators, when followed, almost appear to make you look like a bit of a contrarian. If a booming economy has signs of an oncoming recession, the cyclist will take actions like dramatically cutting back on capital expenditures. Most other businesses will still be spending like there's no tomorrow. But when the economy turns, these spending companies are caught with large debt payments with high interest. The cyclist, however, is sitting on a pile of cash at a time when cash flow is king. Continuing to follow the indicators can show when the recession is starting to ease. The spending companies are all cut to the bone at that point, while the cyclist is able to start expansion with little competition and cut-rate pricing. Same with advertising... Spending on advertising at the peak of the recession can often be more effective as everyone else has cut their ad budgets. Fewer voices, more visibility. Then when the economy turns, guess who has mind share heading into the recovery?
   
   I think the points made here are very valid and bear consideration. I will admit to thinking on more than one occasion that "hindsight is 20-20" when reading some of his examples. Granted, many of the bone-headed moves *were* just plain ill-advised and stupid. But at the time, you don't have the luxury of knowing how the story turns out. Also, many of the company demises outlined here are presented in such a way that it makes it look as if there was a single reason for the collapse. In reality, company failures are normally a combination of things, not just a single failure to do (or not do) something. In any case, the point remains that there are economic signals available to executives that are more often right than wrong. Ignoring them because you have a hunch or you've been reading your own press releases doesn't usually turn out to your advantage.
   
   This is an interesting book to add to your business bookshelf, and it can definitely help you chart your course in these strange economic times...

5 comments about Workouts in Intermediate Microeconomics.

1. i agree with all the other people when I say this is one of the worst review books I've ever read. The author uses awkward examples to explain concepts...and what is wrong with those names? shirley sixpack? Ambrose? Vanna Boogie? How about Author Dull? or Iam Perplexed? Even answers are given but it doesnt show how it was derived. And on top of that, I am positive the book contains number of errors. This makes it even more confusing for people trying to learn micro. Stay away from that orange book if you can.



2. I completely agree with what everyone else has said especially, "waste of time, I don'tknow what else to say." It was extremely simple and did have many errors. If you want to check your math microeconomics understanding, buy a copy of Shaum's outlines for Mathematics for Economists.



3. This is an excellent workbook to accompany Varian's Intermediate Microeconomics. The reviewers who claim that there are numerous mistakes have clearly done many of the problems incorrectly. In the 5 years that I have used this book, I have found a very small number of mistakes, mostly typographical. Yes, it's a book that has tricky questions. It requires a deep understanding of economic problems, but the point of each example is to illustrate one aspect of the economic concept. If you can get through these problems, you will have a very good understanding of the logic of microeconomics.



4. no example, questions are either too easy or too confusing
   don't use it



5. 
   This workbook supplements the Varian textbook, Intermediate Microeconomics. The textbook focuses on the conceptual and this workbook focuses on the mathematical applications of microeconomics. There are numerous problems for each chapter that range from easy to difficult. Unfortunately, the workbook only has the even answers in the back and no explanations for the answers. I believe that the workbook would be extremely valuable if only it had explanations for the answers. Instructors using the workbook do have the detailed explanations to the questions.