5 comments about Forecasting: Methods and Applications.

1. Was referred to this book while evaluating several software packages for forecasting and this really helped us make the right decision. We decided on Vanguard Software DecisionPro as it supports all the methods (many of which I had no idea existed) that are outlines in this book. This book (and the software) are great. This is a great add-on for anyone doing forecasting!



2. I've been in the field for a few years now and I finally found a book that explains and summarizes the forecasting theory so good. This is my reference book now. I use it to teach my engineers in the subject and for personal reference as well. It provides new information that wasn't available 10 years ago. The explanaitions are good and the examples clear.



3. If you need advanced Forecasting Methods and like the thick mathematical language of typical textbooks, this is for you.



4. If you begin a journey of analyzing time series this is the book for you. Excellent book for every student - you must have and read it. I highly recommend, not to mentioned the fact that at the Web site of Prof. Rob J Hyndman are the data and "forecasting bundle of R packages provides new forecasting methods, and graphical tools for displaying and analysing forecasts" methods explain in that book.



5. Compared with many other forecasting books, I still believe this is the Bible of Forecasting.

No comments about Information and Learning in Markets: The Impact of Market Microstructure.

5 comments about Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (with Economic Applications, InfoTrac® Printed Access Card).

1. Okay book, not the best read, but better than the Mas-Collel green books. This book gives a lot of info on theory but I thought it lacked wrt practical (applied examples). Used for a graduate level course in Micro Econ. My particular course is very hard (this class serves both graduate and PhD Finance students) so needless to say, I am ordering the workbook to help me survive!



2. the shipping was alright.. the book is new and pretty good. happy with it overall..=)



3. After using this book for a math-intensive micro theory course, I would heartily recommend Nicholson's text, which is written clearly with relevant examples and straightforward, useful problems at the end of each chapter. The book is very math-intense and requires a good knowlege of multivariable calculus, but since the reader is probably buying this book for a class, he or she most likely already has the mathematics background necessary. Thumbs up.



4. It is very good textbook to learn microeconomics with intuitions and methodology. But, some people are comparing this book with Mas Colell. Nonsense! Mas Colell is a PhD level, pretty technical, "heavy duty" book. This book is an intermediate level book for senior undergrads or master students. On the other hand, Binger&Hofmann's Microeconomics with Calculus book is better then this, in my opinion. It has less story more information. This book spends lots of lines to explain some small points which is boring for someone who should know these stories before starting graduate studies. But it is more comprehensive than baby Varian. Some departments are using Pyndick's book, but I didn't use it. I believe that Binger&Hofmann is the best in this category if you wanna learn Microeconomics using mathematical tools.



5. This was a good book before. Now it is far better. New co-author Chris Snyder has apparently given a new once-over of this entire text, injecting new life to the portrayal of certain chapters. Book is beautiful in appearance, and printed on very nice paper. I agree with other reviewers as to the clarity, prioritization and calm mastery over the material that makes this book a pleasure to use, as a student.
   
   
   From the Preface, "New to the 10th Edition" (2007):
   
   "Three entirely new chapters written by Chris Snyder:
   * an extended and more advanced treatment of basic game theory concepts (Chapter 8);
   * a thoroughly reworked and expanded chapter on models used in industrial organization theory (Chapter 15); and
   * a completely new chapter on asymmetric information that focuses on the principal-agent problem and modern contract theory (Chapter 18). ...
   
   Several other "major revisions" :
   
   * A significant amount of material was added to the chapter on mathematical background (Chapter 2): integration, basic models of mathematical optimization, brief introduction to mathematical statistics;
   * Chapter 7, on uncertainty and risk aversion, thoroughly revised;
   * Much of the theory of the firm, especially of the firm's demands for inputs, has been expanded (Chapters 9-11);
   * The chapter on general equilibrium modeling (Chapter 13) has been thoroughly reworked with the goal of providing students with more details about how computable general equilibrium models actually work.
   * The chapter on capital and time (Chapter 17) has been significantly expanded to include more on optimal saving b ehaior and on resource allocation over time."

5 comments about Contract Theory.

1. We used selected parts of a preview version of this book at Carnegie Mellon in Fall 2004. This book is the best - better than Salanie's primer, which I am familar with in depth and also better than Laffont's Theory of Incentives, which I am familar with in parts.
   
   The authors do a brilliant job of synthesizing hard to read Econometrica, JET, AER, QJE, articles down to key insights and managable proportions. They present results in a manner a graduate student can have a shot at understanding.
   
   They discuss the expected topics - Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard; Screening, Signaling, Auctions. They do a particularly good job of explaining Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard in a dynamic framework.
   
   This is hard material, certainly not trivial reading. You need some prior background in Microeconomic Theory of the level of Mas Collel / Reny and Jehle / Kreps and Game Theory of the level of Osbourne & Rubenstein / Fudenberg & Tirole. You also need to be a self-absorbed academic - ideally an enthusiastic and masochistic graduate student in Economics or closely related discipline. None of these books are of any damned use in the "real" world.



2. Despite more than 20 years of research there are not many books out there on contract theory. Laffont & Martimort and Salanie are perhaps the most widely read ones. What distinguishes this book from others is its comprehence coverage of modern contract theory: unlike the others, it allocates sizable portions on multilateral/multiagent/dynamic/incomplete frameworks, which until now only had to be learned by reading journal articles. This book picks out the most important and influential models and present them in depth, while not losing sight of other streams of literature. My only complaint is the book is not exactly user-friendly in some places. I had to spend quite a bit of time trying to figure out some missing steps in derivations. Usually these were resolved in second reading, so it is not a major issue (reminded me of reading quantum mechanics...) The benefit of having a single definitive source of modern contract theory (as opposed to flipping through hundreds of journal articles) is enormous for a student like me who is new to the subject. I suggest reading Salanie along with it. Salanie is more readable and short, and these two complement each other very well.



3. Probably the best book on Contract Theory I know. Very rigorous but with the posibility of a second non-mathematical reading. The conceptualization of most examples and motivations in terms of buyer-seller limits the scope to economists.
   The book deeply analyzes topics usually casted aside by another handbooks.



4. The authors arrange every detail of the subject logically and beautifully, great book to read and own.



5. This book is strongly recommended by our professor. I read some chapters and find it very clear. It does not over-use math, but empahsize the intuition of contract theory.

5 comments about Intermediate Microeconomics.

1. As many others have noted it contains very few numerical examples. I didnt have the workbook so maybe that would have helped, but so far this book is completely useless. I wouldnt recommend this unless you really love the pure formulas an no examples. If its required i guess its better than nothing



2. Great book. Very useful. I have the textbook still in shrink wrap, and the workbook that goes along with it. I want to part with it. Sctops140 at aol dot com for details. I purchased it for a microeconomics class at Beloit College. The workbook helps understand the concepts explained in the textbook.



3. Its an excellent book that explains the microeconomical theory in a conscise, direct, easy to understand which in unison with a more mathematical book such as the structure of economics by silberberg can be a great tool to understanding micro economics



4. The book arrived in a timely manner and the condition was just as described. Very satisfied!



5. The book was i good condition only a few highlighted sections, but over all very good. I receieved the book very quickly as well a good deal.
   Thanks

No comments about Kaplan AP Macroeconomics/Microeconomics, 2008 Edition (Kaplan Ap Macroeconomics/Microeconomics).

1 comments about Microeconomics Demystified.

1. As a MBA student taking Managerial Economics, I found this book extremely helpful. It removes a great deal of confusion and foggy Economic mumbo gumbo, enabling the reader to truly understand Microeconomic concepts. The quizzes at the end of each chapter assists greatly in your understanding of how well you have grasped what was presented. The final exam at the end of the booked helped me with the final exam in my course. I strongly recommend this book for any Economics course for which microecomonics is an integral part. The only real thing of value that I can share is perhaps the fact that I got an A in the class and a great deal was due to this book! I hope more are to come. This author knows his stuff.

5 comments about The Great Transformation: The Political and Economic Origins of Our Time.

1. Polanyi's great transformation starts in the 19th century with the installation of a self-regulating market system ('the satanic mill') for labor, land and money and by letting the whole society be run by the system without any intervention. It provoked a wholesale destruction of the `traditional fabric of society'.
   
   Attack on the market economy and democracy
   In fact, this book is not only an attack against `laissez-faire', but also against a `regulated' market system and against, for Polanyi, the main cause of this great transformation (democracy). His book is not less than a plea for a return to the `Ancien Régime', for Polanyi the Golden Age of mankind, `the traditional unity of the Christian society', `the social fabric of the village under the supremacy of squire and parson', the society of `the benevolent gentlemen of England with their compassion from the heart', when economics where `embedded' in the whole society.
   
   What was this Ancien Régime?
   A disaster for 999 out of 1000 individuals. The poor had only one option: 'steal to be hanged' (J. Swift, D. Defoe, E.J. Burford). But for Polanyi, `under the regime of feudalism and the village community, noblesse oblige, clan solidarity, and regulation of the corn market checked famine'.
   The kings owned the salt mines and sold (!) as a monopoly their salt (a necessity for survival) dearly: one block of about 5 kg was worth a whole village, population included (the ancient salt mines of Krakow are well worth a visit). For Polanyi, `it is the absence of the threat of individual starvation which makes primitive society more humane.'
   Polanyi defends the guild system, feudalism and mercantilism: `Feudalism and landed conservatism were only seemingly contrary to the general interest of the community' and `neither under tribal nor under feudal nor under mercantile conditions was there a separate economic system in society'. But the guild system was an antidemocratic closed shop and mercantilism (F. Colbert) was a system for strengthening the Nation, in other words, the power of one man (`L'Etat, c'est moi').
   
   What is the cause of this great transformation?
   `The democratization of the political State which caused the separation of the economic and political sphere', `the transition to a democratic system and representative politics'.
   
   What is Polanyi's solution?
   `The passing of the market-economy can become the beginning of an era of unprecedented freedom.' What we need is planning, control, power and compulsion to ensure conformity which is needed for the survival of the group. Contradictio in terminis? Absolutely not: `the individual person should not fear that power and planning will turn against him'.
   
   Of course, submitting the whole society to a pure self-regulating market system (e.g., the gold standard) is asking for disaster. The market system, a must for democracy, should be regulated and parts of the fabric of society should be managed by the State under a democratically elected government (R. Kuttner, J. Stiglitz). Indeed, `The economic order is merely a function of the social order'.
   
   This book is an extraordinary reactionary and naïve defense of a `black' past.
   However, the introduction by J. Stiglitz is excellent and justifies a modest outlay.



2. Adam Smith's *Wealth of Nations* may well have been the premier work in the history of economic thought, but his ventures into the realm of economic origins are, alas, founded on Platonic myth. Polanyi's work *Great Transformation* incorporated anthropological work from known primitive societies, plus available historical documents, to construct a far more empirical explanation of the origins of the market economy.
   
   In this work, published fourteen years later, Polanyi (and colleagues) returns to the anthropological and archaeological evidence to reconstruct exactly how prices, real wages, and exchange relationships were organized. The early empires this book addresses include ancient Mesopotamia, Western Africa, Anatolia and Greece, Mesoamerica, the Sahel Steppe, and India. Additionally, a series of essays in the back by the books several authors draw upon primitive and classical empires to examine how early man used commerce, and how that later led to institutions of trade.
   
   This receives four stars because, while it is a milestone in the field of economic history, it has since been superseded by more recent, nuanced analysis. His essay "The Economy as Instituted Process" is compelling, yet schematic; of course he brushes over countervailing evidence, because he is sketching out a stylized model of how labor, land, and tools were reified and subordinated to markets.



3. Adam Smith's *Wealth of Nations* may well have been the premier work in the history of economic thought, but his ventures into the realm of economic origins are, alas, founded on Platonic myth. Polanyi's work *Great Transformation* incorporated anthropological work from known primitive societies, plus available historical documents, to construct a far more empirical explanation of the origins of the market economy.
   
   In this work, published fourteen years later, Polanyi (and colleagues) returns to the anthropological and archaeological evidence to reconstruct exactly how prices, real wages, and exchange relationships were organized. The early empires this book addresses include ancient Mesopotamia, Western Africa, Anatolia and Greece, Mesoamerica, the Sahel Steppe, and India. Additionally, a series of essays in the back by the books several authors draw upon primitive and classical empires to examine how early man used commerce, and how that later led to institutions of trade.
   
   This receives four stars because, while it is a milestone in the field of economic history, it has since been superseded by more recent, nuanced analysis. His essay "The Economy as Instituted Process" is compelling, yet schematic; of course he brushes over countervailing evidence, because he is sketching out a stylized model of how labor, land, and tools were reified and subordinated to markets.



4. While this is now a classic text, having been written in 1944, as time passes it provides a more and more compelling explanation of modern economic history; I have found it to be of immense value - definately worth reading!



5. "Our thesis is that the idea of a self-adjusting market implied a stark utopia. Such an institution could not exist for any length of time without annihilating the human and natural substance of society; it would have physically destroyed man and transformed his surroundings into a wilderness." (p. 3)
   
   As one can see from possibly the most famous Polanyi quote, "The Great Transformation" is about the market and its consequences. This book is not an easy read; as Joseph Stiglitz acknowledges in his Foreword, it certainly has accessibility issues due to its language, certain details in its reasoning and the background knowledge it assumes on the part of the reader. However, I can only give this book five stars because of two great ideas it develops.
   
   The first one is that the market economy is a fairly recent social construct. For most of human history, markets did not play a major role in economic organization; the "natural propensity to truck and barter" attributed to human beings by Adam Smith is actually apocryphal, as shown in Polanyi's discussion of early societies (p. 45). Polanyi describes in great detail the rise of the market society - the development of national markets, the slow move toward a free labor market and all the legislation that accompanied it. When seen in this perspective, the failure of shock therapy in Russia makes perfect sense: the market is in no way the natural state and it needs extensive institutional infrastructure to function properly (see "Globalization and its Discontents" by Joseph Stiglitz for more on this).
   
   The second major idea here is the idea of double movement. It says that in society there are two main opposing forces working against each other. One is a market liberal force which pushes in the direction of the self-regulating market, the other is a reaction that develops due to the immense costs and pain imposed by the market. If the current financial crisis in the US leads to more regulation of finance, in Polanyian terms it will be a reaction to the unsustainable costs imposed by deregulation of finance. The interesting part about this idea of the double movement is that it essentially turns Hayekian spontaneous order on its head. For Hayek, the market society is a spontaneous outcome due to inherent human propensities while the state is a parasite that tries to suppress the expression of the human nature with interventionist meddling. For Polanyi, "Laissez-faire was planned; planning was not", i.e. the market society arose through deliberate state action, whereas the reaction in the opposite direction was spontaneous (p. 147).
   
   Polanyi traces the changes in the international system to the market and covers the ideological developments behind the self-regulating market, but you will have to see for yourself. Once again, this book is a hard read, especially if you are just trying to educate yourself and do not have anyone to clarify the intricacies. However, the Foreword by Joseph Stiglitz and the Introduction by Fred Block are both quite helpful. "The Great Transformation" is rightly considered a heterodox classic and if you are interested in a different take on the market economy, do yourself a favor and pick this up!

1 comments about Microeconomics: Principles, Applications, and Tools (5th Edition) (MyEconLab Series).

1. This book was very helpful this semester. It has great examples, every single page is in full color, and explains the concepts very clearly. I highly suggest buying the accompanying study guide as well, it's been beyond helpful in studying for my final.

5 comments about The Trouble With Prosperity: A Contrarian's Tale of Boom, Bust, and Speculation.

1. When I first started investing in stocks, I read two financial books with two very different slants on the markets. The first was Peter Lynch's "One Up on Wall Street" - a breezy, everyone-can-do-it, "buy what you know" feel-good primer. The second was this book, James Grant's "The Trouble With Prosperity", a real wake-up call to anyone who thinks that investing is easy, stocks ought to go up forever, and that the good times will always last. My investing life was probably spared several times over by Grant's book.

   Let me spill the beans right here: the trouble with prosperity, in Grant's view, is that people begin believing it will never end. As a result, financial decisions begin to be made - both by individuals and by institutions - during prosperous times that are based on too rosy a view of the future. When reality sets in and conditions turn out not as expected, those poor decisions end up creating imbalances in the markets that need to be corrected before economic health can begin anew. So lenders made more and more unwise loans in the late 80's... leading to a banking crisis. Real estate values rise on speculation and then crash. We are seeing at this writing some wrenching corrections and volatility in tech stocks based on too-optimistic views of their future earnings. And the list goes on.

   Grant's view of the corrections are that they are painful but necessary, sort of like the occasional brush fire that clears out the old undergrowth and allows for new growth to begin again. His is an urgently needed message in an age of electronic brokers and cheerleading financial media. Read and heed what Grant has to say to help guard against your own 'irrational exuberance' in whatever market you are in and to help see your financial future in light of both prosperous times and their inevitable corrections.




2. I'm sitting here in August of 2002, looking at Jim Grant's 1996 prognosis for the stock market. At the time he presumably was writing his book, the NASDAQ (the major over-the-counter, technology-laden index)was in the 1,200 to 1,400 range.

   At that time, Grant apparently was suggesting that stocks were "too expensive", and that a bubble existed, which would soon burst.

   Well, after his book was written, the market continued to rally strongly for another 4 years, and now that the bubble has burst, we find it's a different bubble entirely than Mr. Grant assumed it was.

   Because after the bursting, the NASDAQ index is down from the 5,000 level reached 4 years AFTER Jim Grant said prices were too expensive, and is now rallying up from a double bottom at the 1,200 level.

   In other words, Mr. Grant back in 1996 was claiming we were near a top in the market, but he was totally in error! After all that has happened since his book was written, we are still at or above the stock price level that he claimed was "too expensive". Apparently the author's ceiling has become the FLOOR of the stock market, which means he was about as wrong as he could have been.....




3. According to James Grant, this is what goes wrong during good times: "Of all the consequences of sustained prosperity, none is so powerful as the delusion that markets always go up." Not many people wanted to hear that when it was first published in 1996. Which is probably why he added this redundancy: "They do not always go up."

   Grant chronicles periods of boom and bust. He is effective at this. For example, he quotes The Journal of Commerce during a bear market in 1952: "Many bankers visualize a return to the conditions of 150 years ago, when many sections of Wall Street and environs were residential and retailing districts." It's difficult to imagine that Wall Streeters would be that bleak. It's also difficult to imagine that investors would be as unrealistic as they were in the 1990s: "In response to warnings that dividend yields were too low, or that price-earnings yields were too high, the public only invested more, thereby sending yields even lower and price-earnings multiples higher." Four years after Grant wrote that the S&P 500 began to decline.

   The Trouble with Prosperity is not a "how to get rich book" for "dummies" or "idiots." This is a serious discussion of financial history which gets heady at times. For instance, the author applies theory from the Austrian school of economics. "In the Austrians' judgment," he explains, "there is one principal source of collective error: interest rates. Set them too low and people will overreach." The central bank is the culprit. "The quarrel I have with the Federal Reserve", proclaims Grant, "is not so much that it creates credit as that it pretends to know the interest rate at which that credit (in the form of bank reserves) should be lent and borrowed." Alan Greenspan, in other words, is not omniscient.

   James Grant is not a cheerleader for the stock market. He is a genuine contrarian, a skillful writer, and he was right.




4. History has a way of repeating things. Our economy is NO exception. James Grant writes a great book on the history of money,interest rates and the stock market in this country. Starting with a building at 40 Wall completed in 1930 the year after the market crash and taking you through the history of many of its tenets. Grant is able to show the many Boom and Bust cycles in our economy and why they happen. A MUST READ to understand the cyclicality of our markets....And the foolishness of our politicians and Central Bank heads into believing that they can manage the economy into a virtual up economy all of the time. The lesson learned in this book is that artificially inflating assests will cause major reccesions to happen.



5. James Grant is a stock market analyst and historian of Wall Street. In the Trouble with Prosperity, he recounts investment movements in the United States during the twentieth century and brings them to life without dull painstaking illustration or by selling an investment tool. This book along with "Money of the Mind" shows that he is no slouch in his understanding of U.S. financial history.
   
   As an amateur economist, the section of the book most interesting to me was called the "Consequence of 3%" where Grant shows why he is critical of modern central banking with its dependence on loose credit. He follows the analysis of William Roepke and other "Austrian" economists in discovering the faults of a government managed credit system. One should not dismiss this assessment out of hand because of its Austrian roots. Even neo-classical economists have lately become interested in some of the ideas of Knut Wicksell, who by following Walrus and Bohm-Bawerk sought to discover the consequences of price floors and ceilings on credit markets.
   
   Grant mashes the history in with theory and comes up with this highly insightful book.