5 comments about The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East.

1. First I noticed the controversy about this book in Hard Talk on BBC, where the host and the author did some very unsatisfactory pirouettes around the contentious issues, which are related to the Western reservations about current Asian progress. Then I read an even worse interview in Der Spiegel, where the interviewers excelled in stupidity while the author excelled in stubbornness.
   Consequently I had to pick up the book and read it. KM expects to provoke 'us' Westerners, but he asks some pundits to write blurbs, which Summers and Zbig and others did.
   KM's thesis is this: Asia rises, and that is good for the world. The Western leaders have trouble in adjusting their mental maps, which are trapped in the past. Asia has benefitted from the world system as established after WW2 and has no interest in endangering it. The current wave of optimism will enter West Asia as well and Pakistan, Iran and others will want to have the same progress as China and India etc...
   The March to Modernity is good for all, and it is not just material, rather the escape from poverty has far reaching immaterial value for the masses of Asia.
   In short, KM is a 'hopeless' optimist, and I do hope that his victorious scenario wins. My biggest doubts are over the Islamic world's ability to join the trend. Maybe KM knows better. I do hope so.
   One surprise for me was that KM steps away from the old litany of Lee Kuan Yew and others, i.e. that Asian economic success is due to traditonal Confucian values. In the contrary, KM argues that China, India, and the others, are following Japan in adopting the '7 pillars' that were the basis of the West's surge forward some centuries ago. These 7 pillars are: 1. free economy (expect Adam Smith in the Asian pantheon of the future!), 2.science (enormous push forward; quote Rajiv Gandhi: better brain drain than brain in the drain); 3. meritocracy/equal opportunity, a trend which requires overcoming huge traditional obstacles, but which is clearly on the way; 4.pragmatism: possibly a euphemism for copying; 5.a culture of peace (maybe hard to believe for many in the West); 6. the rule of law: far from being an attained target so far; 7.education.
   If KM is right, the adoption of Western values is going far beyond copying Gucci bags and Lacoste shirts. In that sense I would'nt be surprised if he got as much headwind in Asia as in the West.
   The headwind in the West comes from his criticism of the exportation of democracy into nations that are not ready for it. And of course from his criticism of the way the West dominates the international institutions and applies double standards.
   Why are we not happy with the Asians following our example? Because it means loss of power, plain and simple.
   Can't say that I don't see his point. Equally I think he is right in blaming the current Western leadership for gross incompetence in critical issues such as Middle East policy (the Iraq invasion as the single worst case of bad judgment and terrible implementation), free trade, nuclear non-proliferation, global warming...
   Incidentally, KM points out, at the time when Giordano Bruno was burned for heresy in Rome, the Muslim emperor Akbar the Great pronounced principles of a secular government in India. So much for Western conceipt.



2. Kishore Mahbubani presents an engrossing account, written with clarity and incite, detailing the shifting landscape of our human planet. He is able to comprehensively portray the changing forces - strengths and weaknesses, economically, politically, and culturally - affecting the dynamics of the interactions and changing powers of the world's civilizations. I became interested in the book after watching Mr. Mahbubani on an interview on UCTV in which he made a potentially boring-sounding topic sound potentially interesting. IT WAS FASCINATING!



3. By 2050, three of the world's largest economies will be Asian - China, Japan, and India, and America's domination of global institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, G-7, and the U.N. Security Council will be over.
   
   The U.S. needs to take a broader view of morality than it has. The rise of Asia has brought more "goodness" (lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty) into the world in the last several decades; at current growth rates standards of living in China may rise 100X within a human life span, contrasted with Russia's 45% decline after following American advice to leap into democracy without reforming the economy first. Facilitating widespread acquisition of consumer goods removes the feeling of hopelessness and futility, increases sense of self-worth, lowers crime rates, encourages the teaching of history to become less ideological (eg. China's new texts mention Mao only once), and improves education standards. However, accomplishing this requires not freedom from authoritarianism (as most Americans think), but freedom from chaos and anarchy. (Part of the government's reaction to Tiananmen Square was supposedly due to their support for a Russian-style economic and political conversion.)
   
   Mao's initial implementation of central planning was not a failure - thanks to his ending almost a century of political turmoil the first Five-Year Plan brought average annual increases in industrial and agricultural output of 19.6 and 4.8% respectively. The 1955 Great Leap Forward, on the other hand, was a failure.
   
   The success of Chinese expatriates overseas and their low productivity on the mainland confirmed (along with initial small experiments that partially reversed collectivization of agriculture) Deng's suspicion that China had adopted the wrong economic system. Thus, he became a pragmatist ("It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white - as long as it catches mice it is a good cat."), calling for an end to name-calling, emphasizing responsibility, and stating that "To get rich is glorious." Regardless, China's development has now reached a need for a legal system that borrows from Western concepts, thereby decentralizing financial power and property rights (and further encouraging economic investment).
   
   Asia had slipped behind Western scientific development because of a religious mindset that spurned the material world and a lack of critical questioning. Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in chemistry, predicted that by 2010, 905 of PhD scientists and engineers would be living in Asia. China's 200,000 returnees make up 81% of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, enticed by patriotism and growing opportunities, resistance to research in some areas (eg. stem-cell), and increased government funding. (China has increased from 0.6% in 1995 to 1.3% in 2005, vs. U.S. federal outlays declining over the past 30 years to 0.05% in 2003.
   
   The China Central Committee's (CCC) average age in 2002 was 55; membership is based on merit, not seniority (eg. Russia's Politburo). Another lesson learned from Russia's implosion was to avoid an early overfocus on military development.
   
   Arab Muslims make up on about 1/6 of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims. Most live in Asia; throughout the world Islamist parties are gaining ground.
   
   Hopefully, the Western nations will accept Asia's rise. America's star is not dimming, though it is shining relatively less brightly. In addition, our supporting Israel, Arab and other despots, speaking non-proliferation while silent on Israeli nukes, modernizing American weapons, and supporting India's nuclearization, supporting democracy, while punishing Palestinians for not voting the way we want, lack of leadership on global warming (includes insisting on too much, too soon from developing nations), name-calling and refusing to talk to Iran do not compare well with China's no-strings aid to eg. Africa, without dictating terms for economic and political reforms.
   
   An excellent outside perspective!



4. Kishore Mahbubani is the Professor of Public Policy of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. His previous books carry the interesting titles of Can Asian Think? and Beyond the Age of Innocence.
   
   In this book, Kishore, a former diplomat explores the reaction of the West especially the United States towards the shift of global power to the east. By 2050, the world's three largest economies will be in Asia: Japan, India, and China.
   
   Kishore's thesis is that the east like to replicate, not dominate. This was always so with Asian and Western countries. However much depends on the response of the United States. If the United States are willing to share and not dominate, then there will be much benefit to everyone. However if the United States decide to try to dominate the rising economies, there will be much chaos.
   
   History unfortunately has shown that the Western response when threatened by the east was always a retreat into protectionism and attacks. The Japan-bashing of the 1980s, have been replaced by India-bashing of the 1990s (due to outsourcing) and now we have China-bashing in the 2000s. Looks like we in Asia are in a stormy ride.



5. The challenge faced by U.S. policy in Iraq is an indication of Kishore Mahbubani's assertion that you cannot export democracy into countries that are not ready for it.
   
   In his book "The New Asian Hemisphere" Mahbubani points to the limitations of Western leadership in such areas as free trade, global warming, nuclear non-proliferation, Middle East policy, and reticence to accept the rise of Asia.
   
   The author discusses the gap between America embracing democracy and the rule of law for all nations while itself arguably playing bully in dealing with so called "enemy combatants." Because of these shortcomings, Mahbubani believes it is far better for third world populations to be modernized rather than Westernized.
   
   While sometimes harsh on Western leaders the author is quick to give credit where credit is due by recognizing Western contributions such as science and technology, free-market economics, pragmatism, rule of law, education, culture of peace, and meritocracy. But that does not stop the author from pushing for changes in the institutions that govern the international and economic system to make room for Asia's return to global leadership, such as his call to add India and Japan to the UN Security Council.
   
   In his book, the author calls for more partnering among East and West to help build a more stable world with more stable growth. I'll drink to that, since this is what I do for a living.
   
   By Gunjan Bagla
   Author of Doing Business in 21st Century India

5 comments about The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else.

1. The Mystery of Capital tackles one of the largest issues in development and comparative economics: non-convergence. Why is it that living standards do not converge? Is it because some nations have better technology? Is it because some nations simply have more capital? De Soto focuses on institutions rather than existing technology or capital. The reason why some nations succeed in developing a modern capital structure using modern technology is because their institutions protect the property rights of those who try to save and accumulate wealth.
   
   The discussion of American history is detailed enough to make a strong case, yet focused enough to make it easy reading. De Soto does a good job of relating American experience to modern development issues. This is what economics should be about: using valid and sensible theoretical propositions to explain real historical events. Consequently, I have found this book useful in my classes on Comparative Economic Systems, and Law and Economics. The Mystery of Capital certainly does not read like a textbook, but it should be used as one anyway.
   
   The main limitation of this book is that it tends to make observations about politics, rather than explaining it. In other words, De Soto does not get very far into Public Choice issues. This is a minor limitation, as no book can cover every angle. Read The Mystery of Capital and learn!



2. The mystery of capital? Property rights.
   
   Your reaction to this fundamental statement will probably determine your enjoyment level of this book: are you in the "Oh, really?" camp or the "Of course!" camp? Although de Soto seems to stake this out as his first "Eureka!" moment, this is far from a new insight--the role of property rights in economic development is well-known in a number of fields, including business, law, and economics. Therefore his claim that everyone has simply "forgotten" about the source of the mystery of capital requires some suspension of disbelief. To a large extent, de Soto undermines his claim to novelty by citing a number of renowned property rights scholars (such as Coase and Demsetz, and of course Marx) and noting that Latin American governments have recognized property rights as being key to economic development for the past 200 years. Somewhat shocking to me is the absence of reference to Douglass North, the Nobel Prize-winning economist who deals with virtually the same question ("why do some countries consistently outperform others?") and arrives at virtually the same conclusion: countries with institutions that foster property rights do better. De Soto rightfully concludes that culture is not to blame for everything, but North has a more developed framework that encompasses not only culture but other informal norms (such as those that allow the extralegal economy to function) as well as the formal institutions and their enforcement. What I'm trying to say is that if the "mystery of capital = property rights" part was at all surprising (or even if it wasn't), give North's 1990 book on institutional economics a read.
   
   Personally, what I found more interesting was the focus on the extralegal economy of developing & underdeveloped countries. Undoubtedly, this is a topic that does not garner much attention, and when it does it is more from a human rights standpoint than an economic standpoint. De Soto's point that these "extralegals" are often not extralegal by choice, and often productive members of society is well taken. So is his point that formal laws must be harmonious with informal customs (although it is interesting that he spends much time arguing this point, which is taken as a given--and starting point--for North and other institutional economists). As other reviewers have noted, however, a degree of skepticism is needed when de Soto treats his "legalize what is not extralegal" mantra as a panacea for all poor countries' ills. Not just because of the logistics necessary for such an endeavor (such as the simultaneous improvements in the many complementary institutions to property rights necessary in order to fully realize the economy's potential), although that is a key stumbling block. Nor is skepticism needed purely because of the fact that de Soto apparently expects a virtuous politician (or enlightened consultant) to implement in a series of fell swoops what it took the US and Europe many centuries to achieve in a gradual, organic evolution kind of way. Even the success of Japan was not as precipitous as de Soto and others claim--Japan's rise to power is best viewed as starting with the 19th century Meiji Restoration, not the post-war period. It's not even because de Soto doesn't seem to consider the situation where extralegal norms are inefficient or even run counter to capitalism (which is often a primary reason why reform is pushed by the IMF and other such actors).
   
   No, what concerns this reviewer even more is that the causality de Soto argues seems counter to what his actual US/Europe examples imply. In other words, de Soto argues that the economic potential of extralegals would be unleashed if only they were allowed into the formal economy. That is, legalization of what is extralegal leads to economic development. Yet, the example of US settlers suggests the exact opposite. Rather than the legalization of extralegal activities (like squatting) being instrumental to the release of economic potential, it was largely an irrelevant, post hoc adjustment to reality. Politics certainly figured in, but purely from an economic standpoint, the extralegal institutions trumped the outdated and inefficient legal institutions anyway. The squatters were going to squat and the gold diggers were going to dig, and the law was at worst a minor nuisance to them as they pursued their economic activities. Economic changes heralded legal changes, not the other way around. Not only that, but the decision to tolerate and even reward squatters--while an economically justified decision--actually undermined property rights in the traditional sense, ironically.
   
   In other words, it was the economic development that preceded legalization; this is not the causality for which de Soto argues. To that end, one cannot help but think that the economic potential of a Peruvian shantytown dweller--while positive, from a value-creation perspective--is dwarfed by that of a historical US frontiersman or UK suburban textile worker. In that case, the focus shifts to classic concepts like comparative advantage. The implication is that the question becomes: what sources of competitive or comparative advantage can be exploited to achieve sustainable economic development? The legality of these aspects becomes somewhat trivial. If economic development is fostered, the legal system will fall in line (case in point: China's meteoric economic rise is finally being accompanied--albeit slowly--by legal reform, but clearly it was not legal reform that drove China's economic ascent!). Don't get me wrong: improving a country's system of property rights can do nothing but good. But would legalizing what is currently extralegal propel a country like Peru into the ranks of the developed, "rich" countries? That's a little harder to believe. It also casts a shadow on de Soto's sunny optimism because it would then be possible for a country to "do all the right things" and still languish in poverty.
   
   De Soto's zeal is admirable, and he's clearly on the right path in general. And even though his examples suggest that economic change precedes legal change, while he argues that legal change precedes economic change, these are not mutually exclusive processes so he is not necessarily wrong (he just has less anecdotal support than he presumes). I just worry that even if his suggestions are implemented, 10, 50, or 100 years from now we'll still be asking the same basic question: why do the gods of economic prosperity smile on some places but not on others?



3. Life changing book, should be read by everyone. Very easy to comprehend and very easy to read in one or two settings. What is capitalism, what is a capitalist and what is capital? More importantly, why do some have the good fortune to be capitalists? And, why have so many missed the boat? DeSoto doesn't give the formula for alleviating world poverty. More importantly he provokes the reader to start looking for answers. The "Mystery of Capital" essentially becomes the source of knowledge capital in action. I've already started looking at the billions of humanity stuck at the bottom in a whole different way. Hopefully you will too after reading this book.



4. To what extent do private property rights--dividing up the earth among individuals, making everything a commodity which can be bought or sold--facilitate economic development? Are they absolutely required? Could a planned economy manage to guide development, perhaps with (nearly) as much speed, but a lot more consideration for humanity?
   
   This is an important question for Marxists as well as others. It's also a controversial one. Adherents of Trosky's theory of Permanent Revolution (Bolsheviks more generally, in fact), and of Che Guevara's theory of peasant-based rural guerrilla rebellion, insist that it is possible and desirable to make the transition directly from an underdeveloped, largely agrarian society to an advanced, industrial capitalist economy under the auspices of socialist planning. In terms of legal systems, they believe it is possible to bypass a system of private property and free enterprise, moving directly from feudalism (landlords and peasants) to socialism (collective ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange) without capitalism (the private ownership and building up of small businesses into giant capitalists industries, aka the MoP).
   
   Classical Marxism--represented by Marx himself, most Marx scholars, and politically speaking, by (for instance) the Russian Mensheviks--holds instead that every society must pass through a long period of capitalist industrialization before it is ready for socialism. Private property rights must be granted and protected by the government, development must take place under the "guidance" of capitalists (they are really just seeking their own individual self-interest, but in the aggregate they guide things), productive capital must become ever more concentrated into fewer hands, until eventually the forces of modern production are too large and too concentrated to be held by any one person in a society that considers itself democratic, and control of them must be taken away from individuals and given to society as a whole.
   
   Like any honest Marxist, although I'm convinced of the need for a planned economy in any highly industrialized society, I'm torn on the question of third world development. On the one hand, the classical Marxist argument seems more compelling and more in tune with reality. On the other, there is a strong emotional impetus to accept the revisionists' theories about moving straight to socialism. Must all of humanity really pass through the ugly period that the West experienced while capitalism was developing here? Modern sweatshops, all over the world, are like Charles Dickens' London on a massive scale: child labor, starvation wages, dangerous conditions, 16-hour days. Is it really necessary to see all this suffering happen again? Surely it would be inexcusable to dogmatically hold to the classical Marxist view if there was indeed an alternate, more humane path to development.
   
   The Mystery of Capital takes the basically libertarian viewpoint that an extensive and rigidly enforced private property system is necessary for development to occur--roughly in line with the classical Marxist view about the capitalist development stage that must precede socialist planning. It makes the case rather well. Since 100+ reviewers have already summarized the book, I won't. Instead I'll suggest reading De Soto in conjunction with Law and the Rise of Capitalism by Michael Tigar, which documents the *actual* role that libertarian (bourgeois) property rights had in the *actual* development of capitalism in the West. It nicely rounds out De Soto's hypothetical argument about what is required for the *future* development of the third world.
   
   Even if the argument of De Soto/libertarians/classical Marxism is correct, no one should think that legally-enforced private property is all that is necessary for development today. For we live in a different age than the one in which classical Marxism was born. Today there is an unprecedented development gap between the industrialized and undeveloped world, something that wasn't faced by the early industrializers (Britain, Western Europe, and America). New and unique obstacles therefore face those who wish to industrialize in today's global economy.
   
   Even with extensive private property laws in place, no infant manufacturing industries are able to compete on the global free market with those of the advanced industrialized nations. Thus, pure free trade provides another stumbling block to development even if private property laws were extensive and thoroughly enforced. Sure, developing nations can freely compete and trade their agricultural products and raw materials, but if they do not protect their markets for *industrial* products, they won't ever develop their own industries. An Indonesian car is not going to be able to compete on the free market with Japanese and American ones. The industrially undeveloped countries must be protectionist about their manufacturing industries until they are sufficiently developed to compete against established global companies. To continue with the same example, protectionism would allow an Indonesian car maker to grow to the point where it was providing cars for the entire Indonesian domestic market. At this point, it would be robust enough to have at least a fighting chance should the Indonesian government open up the automobile market to free trade, allowing foreign companies to sell cars in Indonesia and the Indonesian company to sell cars in foreign countries. For a further development of this argument, check out books by Ha-Joon Chang (Kicking Away the Ladder) and Erik Reinert (How Rich Countries Got Rich...Why Poor Countries Stay Poor). Needless to say, this will require a political battle by common working people of the first world against the economic elites of their own countries. Overseas development can only help working people in the first world: as other countries develop, their wages rise, and Western capital stops going overseas to exploit super-cheap labor, so more jobs stay here in the West. However, Western economic elites--by which I mean to refer to that select group of people who are in a position to personally profit from lack of development overseas, the owners of the capital that is benefiting by exploiting cheap foreign labor--will continue to try and make free trade, which is an impediment to development, a condition of Western loans and aid. For them, development of industries in the undeveloped countries represents merely a loss of cheap labor and a bunch of new competitors.
   
   Finally, what about the revisionist Marxist view, that of Trotsky, Che Guevara and others? It is possible to empirically check up on that line of thinking: just examine the record of states which have attempted development under capitalist and socialist legal systems. Compare existing and formerly existing socialist states and their efforts at development against the efforts of *comparable* (you don't compare Cuba with the United States, obviously) nations who have followed the liberal capitalist model of development. Many books have been written on the Cuban case, putting it in comparative perspective against Latin American nations with similarly undeveloped economies who have followed the capitalist model, and looking at whether Cuba's policies can potentially serve as an alternative path to development. Hopefully these books also take into account the effect of the crippling American-led embargo, or else their conclusions will be flawed in favor of the libertarian/classical Marxist view. I personally haven't read any of these books on comparative development in Latin America, but I plan to do so soon. After all, the entire third world is just waiting on my answer about what it should do! :)



5. This book reveals what needs to be done to bring the third world out of poverty. The everyday American does not have a clue about what made America's economy the best in the world. Property rights are the key to advance any civilization out of poverty. Just look at china and how with their economy has exploded with the limited property rights they have granted.

5 comments about Globalization and Its Discontents.

1. Joseph Stiglitz thoroughly disects the brain dead institution called the IMF. Read this book and you will clearly see why African countries and other 3rd world countries are as poor as they are. it's not simply because of corruption and mismangement by their government as we all tend to believe. It's not even a conspiracy of any kind. It's just stupid policies by arrogant idiots forcing unproven "free market" policies on the countries.
   
   My one gripe about this book is that the author seems to abdicate some responsibilty of his former employer, the world bank. They've also been part of the problems is developing countries as well. Maybe not to the extent of the IMF but they are also culpable.



2. Anyone with an interest in global affairs would be aware of the East Asian crises and the Russian attempt at becoming a market economy. These are the two main examples used by Stiglitz to frame his arguments and the policies are well known. They are the same problems the anti-globalization movement protests against outside various international financial meetings so there are no new insights here of any great significance. Some of the less prominent countries like Ethiopia and Malaysia are covered though and these sections are interesting although still using the same themes - co-ercive IMF tactics, capital market liberaliztion or protectionism etc. Stiglitz also contradicts himself at times. In one section he argues for greater transparency and public debate (ie. politicization) of the IMF's policies, then in another criticises the U.S. government for enacting protectionist measures domestically (assuredly for political purposes).
   The problem with these 'insider' accounts is that they are by definition subjective. The only examples of the inner workings of these institutions put forward are self-serving anecdotes of when Stiglitz himself opposed, or tried to oppose, IMF policies. There is also very little talk, and even less criticism, of the World Bank which is where he was the chief economist. Would recommend a book by, say, a respected professional journalist who can be a more objective, more dispassionate, and much more coherent.



3. "Globalization and Its Discontents" is an impressive critique of the Washington Consensus and international economic institutions. Even more so because the author is not only an eminent economist, but also an insider on the issues that are being discussed. Some of the things it covers are the historical context, the East Asian financial crisis, and Russia's transition from central planning to a market economy. Stiglitz demonstrates how a combination of unwillingness to consult, market fundamentalist ideology and financial interests led to terrible outcomes. Everyone who has taken an introductory macroeconomics course will be surprised to find out that the IMF pushed contractionary policies during downturns. The Russian experience underscores the importance of cautious and contextual policies that create the institutions necessary for a market economy. Besides retrospective insights, Stiglitz provides a list of alternative policies that could yield a much better result in the future.
   
   It may be less revolutionary now than it was in 2002: many mainstream economists such as Dani Rodrik have come out against the Washington Consensus since and the influence of the IMF seems to have decreased prompting economist Dean Baker to say that "No one needs the IMF anymore" ("The IMF: A Sandbox to Play In", April 10, 2007, Truthout). It may also have its share of flaws, most notably a somewhat naive sounding belief that getting closer to the free trade ideal (which includes cutting subsidies to agriculture so that the poor countries could better compete) will help developing countries a great deal. Many developing countries are in fact net importers of food and cutting agricultural subsidies in rich nations might actually increase prices that they pay for food. Nevertheless, "Globalization and Its Discontents" is an accessible and very interesting book that provides lessons about the need for open dialogue and contextual approaches to development. Not to forget that with the impact that this book has had it is also already a piece of history.



4. It should have been subtitled: "Or how the IMF screwed everything up, despite Joe's best efforts."
   
   It's a tiring tirade.



5. I don't doubt that Stiglitz is right. People with a background like that and have won the Nobel Prize usually know what they are talking about. But man this book is frustrating in the first few chapters. I initially categorized it as anti-western propaganda because it is extremely opposed to western policies. However, it is right. The economics of it are sound, the politics also make sense and the details of this are all laid out. You definitely need some economics knowledge to get through it and it makes a VERY good case against market fundamentalism and excessive deregulation. Unfortunately, the same market fundamentalism that drives the IMF is also what drives Wall Street and the Treasury and it's causing a lot of problems nowadays.

5 comments about The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us.

1. China is the world's new manufacturing powerhouse while India is vying to supersede the United States by producing more code, more engineers and more scientists, although this book (I listened to the unabridged audio book) mostly focuses on the technology support services.
   
   Many of the items you buy in your local Wal-Mart are now designed in India and produced in China. Why? Because the United States cannot be competitive without innovation. It cannot compete in world markets when it produces less engineers, less scientists and less computer programmers - all of whom demand ten times the salary of the abundantly available Indian counterparts grasping for their own meteoric rise to a materially wealthy lifestyle. The Elephant and the Dragon explain the how and why of the global economics that are currently rocking the U.S. to its foundation.
   
   It may already be too late to recapture what made America the "shining light on the hill" but this book is a captivating look into the two vast countries that will replace us in the next century as the world's dominant suppliers of goods and services.



2. The author offers some good material about business trends in China and India and talks as well about the cultural and psychological factors which played an important role for the recent economic transformations in these countries. The description of the problems hindering a long-term development in India and China (corruption and infrastructure difficulties in India, Chinese communistic mindsets and government overregulations) is really interesting. The book proposes some recommendations for Americans and some predictions about Chinese manufacturing and their next economical targets, but this part doesn't sound convincible. Given the economic crisis, the predictions are no longer valid. I think however that some US consumers will shift from high-end products towards middle-end products. If the Chinese manufacturers can shift a part of their low-end production to middle-range products China could emerge event stronger from this crisis.



3. great turnaround. in south africa it took a week from date of ordering to delivery



4. Very informative book. Vividly illuminates how development in central Asia is reshaping the world market place.



5. Meredith's book is an attempt to describe and articulate the newly-fashionable theme of the China and India's rise to political and economic prominence.
   
   However, the book lacks a coherent plan of detailing its facts and linking them in a sensible way. The author jumps from one set of facts in one paragraph to some totally unrelated commentary in the next and then comes back to the first set of facts in a later section. This patterns keeps repeating througout the book, giving the reader a feeling this is a hastily cobbled collection of one-paragraph magazine articles. There's precious new information presented, as the author has made no effort to research beyond the top layer of Chinese and Indian economies i.e apparel factories and call centers respectively.
   
   I would highly recommend Edward Luce's book on India (Inspite of the Gods)as a more substantive and detailed book on emerging India. I'm sure there are better books on China as well, though I'm not as informed on those choices.

5 comments about The New Golden Age: The Coming Revolution against Political Corruption and Economic Chaos.

1. The accredited economist and Professor of Economics tells the truth about concentrated world wealth and world government corruption that has manifested turmoil to today's civilization.
   
   In laymans terms, he explains economic principles and social infrastructure cycles which justify his hypotheis: "The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism: A New Study of History". The imbalance of resources and wealth has proliferated CEO greed and government corruption, slowly eliminating the middle-class. Dr. Batra outlines economic and social history in simple terms to bring a REAL and unavoid conclusion to our financial fate.
   
   His book does not provide hype nor fiction, but he attempts solidify his predictions with factual data. So far, his batting avg. is 90% on predictions. If you want a bite out of the Adam and Eve "apple", buy the book. It's an eye opener.



2. I learnt a lot about present World economics from this book. I recommend reading it for a better understanding of the situation we are in presently.



3. Read this book and tell me that the events currently unfolding all across America could not have been predicted. So we know that at least one person of intelligence saw the economic/geopolitical mess coming. A terrific book that has proven to be all too accurate.
   
   ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED READING FOR ALL!



4. We are now Sept, 29, 2008. I have just finished reading his book. Ravi Batra's expose of the current economic turmoil and its causes is absolutely superb. I don't need any economists' works to find some predictions neither do I expect their forecasts to be totally precise and accurate. None of us would have a crystal ball to predict the future. I simply believe he has a superbly logical approach to the facts he reveals. This is what I expect from a great economist.



5. End of October 2008 now. His predictions from two years ago are unfolding into reality quite relentlessly, on a week by week basis. I learned a lot from this book. I don't know if I can quite buy his theory of cycles, but his incredible success at predicting world events over the past 20 years give him a lot of credibility. He does bring hope that everything will turn out well eventually, but looks like there's going to be a lot of pain before that happens.

5 comments about Trading Option Greeks: How Time, Volatility, and Other Pricing Factors Drive Profit.

1. This is an excellent book on a topic that a lot of traders, have no deep understanding. It explains the Greeks in a layman and a trader language, and provides a clear view how to trade and profit using the information, given by these indicators. I like the examples given, especially those on Delta Neutral Trading, which other books hardly mention. Of special interest, was the clear perspective of Market Makers, and how they view trading from their end. This helps a lot, us retail traders,to place our orders in a more efficient way, for faster execution. My congratulations on this book, which was long due.



2. When I bought this book, I was expecting really in-depth analysis of various Greeks and their effects on basic option positions as well as complex spreads. However, I was bit disappointed.
   
   If you have read any decent preliminary option trading books (Natenberg, McMillan et al) or if you have been trading option spreads for say 1+ year, this book would be useless. In aggregate there would be about 10-12 page material which may useful for such people. Last chapter on relationships between implied and realized volatility is OK.
   
   For some reason the author has morbid fear for graphs of positions and greeks. He ends up giving tables after tables to illustrate effect of various greeks on option position.
   
   If you are at a stage where you think I buy call option when I am bullish and I buy put option when I am bearish, this book will help you understand the effects of other equally important variables in pricing and trading, but then there are so many other which give this information in a better fashion in my opinion.



3. well written easy to understand for anyone who is interested in options
   Author provides with a logical way of looking at options.
   Book which every trader should have



4. Written with the clarity of a practioner with minimal math density though a little excessive use of tabular data (some charts would have been better). My introduction to options was in a very math dense way which leaves you comfortable with geometric brownian motion but unable to act when faced with real time quotes and a rapidly moving market.
   
   Overall a good effort and worth a read for anyone getting serious with trading options. Would highly recommend changing the font and line spacing to avoid eye fatigue in next editions.



5. A fantastic book to add to your library of options analysis. Not for beginners, but if you want to understand why option prices change, this is your book. If you want to understand the implications of various positions, this is your book. If you want to understand how to trade volatility, this is your book. The last part sold me on the book. I have become more confident after reading this book.

5 comments about China Road: A Journey into the Future of a Rising Power.

1. This was an enjoyable read, great if you what a flavor of China but not if you want an in-depth reflection. A good travel diary. I liked it



2. Before and after my two trips to China, 1998 and 2000, I had read just about every relatively modern travel essay on China. Mark Salzman's "Iron and Silk" had always been my favorite. Unfortunately, it was written in 1982 and the China it described has changed over in many ways many times.
   
   I still love "Iron and Silk" but have looked and yearned for a more up to date travel essay that is more accurate regarding today's China. Until "China Road" I had never found it.
   
   I know a lot of people liked "Rivertown" but it just did not do it for me. The recent "American Shaolin" is a great read but unfortunately tells a story from the early 1990's. China has changed so much and so fast since the end of Mao and the modernization that started under Deng and continues as we speak.
   
   China Road nails it. This book gives you the most up to date look at China I have ever read. It is well written, the insights and commentary are fantastic, and most importantly it will give the reader a view of the China of now and not the China of 5 or 10 years ago...because the China of 1998 is not the China of 2008.
   
   I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in China or thinking of going there.



3. NPR reporter Robert Grifford travels the length of China overland meeting interesting people and seeing the sharp contrasts in this emerging power.
   
   From the ultra-modern skyscrapers of Shanghai to farms unchanged in centuries Grifford seeks out the state of modern China in each.
   
   Grifford's style is clear and patient, he explains the history and background of each destination and even a pronunciation guide for Chinese names. Both neophites and veteran China scholars will find things of interest.



4. Rob Gifford presents an insightful journey into the hearts of the hearts and minds of the Chinese citizens he interviews on his travels down Route 312. He also provides historical information on how China got where it is today, and his prediction on how the country will evolve in the future. His observations help outsiders understand the ever evolving mixture of loosening economical control with the maintenance of a communist political structure, and the risks it presents to China's future. Overall, an excellent and thought provoking book!



5. I read this book while teaching school in China Summer 2008. It was a very interesting depiction of the dichotomies in China today - on the one hand the official word and on the other the curiosity and interest of the people in everything western. It was a book that made me think a lot about what I was seeing and what my students were saying. Gifford very accurately and clearly points out the options that face China in the near future and manages to give what seemed to me an unbiased view of both sides of each option. Gifford travels to both known and little known places so it's a travelogue as well. The book is very well written and well worth reading if you have any interest in China at all. When I finished reading China Road, I passed it along to another teacher at the school who has travelled throughout China and has lived there as well. He could hardly put it down, he found it so interesting.

5 comments about Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country.

1. "Secrets of the Temple" is a book that discusses the interaction of the Federal Reserve and Government economic policy. This book is basically a detailed analysis of the Reagan administration and the Volcker chairmanship of the Reserve.
   Once again Mr. Greider teaches us how the "clock" works by taking us on an intimate tour through the internal mechanisms of the "clock". This is the hands on approach to learning. I like it. Mr. Greider takes us on a tour of the factory - from assembly to design and through sales and advertising.
   This book is nearly 800 pages long. It's a bargain. If I had any negative criticism it would be that it contains too much information. But that seems to be Mr. Greider's style - no one is going to accuse him of not "doing his homework". This book is not a "read"; it is a "study".



2. Tom Potts of Ottowa chose to review this book, and he erroneously comments that:
   "The Federal Reserve is a 100% privately owned corporation, carefully set up to appear as though it is an arm of government. It was created solely for the benefit of it's shareholders, a significant proportion of which are foreign. Greider could have mentioned this extremely important fact at the outset. Instead he deliberately helps perpetuate the myth that "The Fed" is public."
   That short paragraph is simply not correct. Please understand that as a libertarian, I have no reason nor any desire to favor the Fed. But, I do favor getting the facts straight, and, in just the snippet quoted above, Mr. Potts' has more than one or two facts incorrect.
   The 12 Federal Reserve banks, facially organized like a private corporation, do indeed issue shares of stock to "member banks." But owning such stock is NOT like owning stock in a private corporation. To start with, member banks have no choice - they must both "own stock" and they also must have reserves on deposit with the Federal Reserve Banks. Yet their "stock" can't be bought, sold or pledged as security and memeber banks get no interest for the funds must they must have held in reserve by their Federal Reserve bank. And, the dividends paid are limited to, at most 6%, which is supposedly partial compensation for the fact that no interest is paid on the amount the member banks are required to have on reserve. And, if you review the weekly statement or balance sheet the Fed issues, you'll see the "total capital" which, you might say represents the Fed's "profit." The Fed's excess capital is then paid over to the U.S. treasuery.
   So, to say that the Federal Reserve was created solely for the "benefit of is shareholders" misstates the situation.



3. The Wall Street collapse in October 1987 was an unusual event. This book explains the political struggles that led to this financial crisis and how the Federal Reserve controlled our economy. Since 1912 the activities of the Federal Reserve have generally been kept secret from the people by the policies of the corporate media. People can't judge or complain about things that are unknown to them. Greider said Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman, controlled our economy through the Reagan era with tight money and high interest rates. Does the Federal Reserve Act turn over Constitutional powers to a private bank so they enrich themselves and disadvantage the people? I think the answer is "Yes". These facts are mostly censored from the censored from the history taught in schools. Corporations have vast influence on the universities and colleges in this country.
   
   The income and payroll taxes withheld from your weekly paycheck do not go directly to the government. They are deposited in a Federal Reserve bank, and then loaned to the Federal government at interest. Every 3 months this money is turned over to the Federal government. The paper dollars (Federal Reserve Notes) are borrowed by the Federal government at interest. JFK ordered the issuance of Treasury Notes in 1963 to cut this cost of interest. After he was removed from office this policy was stopped. If this is all news to you, just where are you getting your information?
   
   Greider points out that 19th century Americans fully understood the politics of money (p.246). Modern Americans are more ignorant ("dumbing down"). The gold standard of the 1880s was a policy to extort money from the people who had to pay paper money debts with over-valued gold (p.247). The gold standard did not guarantee stable prices. Cycles of price inflation and deflation were part of world commerce, whether the currency was gold, silver, or copper (p.248). The current problems with an unstable money supply go back to Renaissance times (p.249). Capitalism requires instability. A period of inflation to stimulate growth and wealth followed by deflation to consolidate this created wealth (p.249). No popularly elected government can have a stable price system since that leads to economic stagnation (p.250). Usurious lending was a means to expropriate land from small farmers (p.251). Chapter 8 provides a history of America you won't learn about in school books.
   
   This 800 page book contains many other interesting facts and history in explaining the Federal Reserve. Since WW I the activities of the Fed were followed by the destruction of small and mid-size businesses. Around 1950 most small businesses in a town were locally owned and operated. Since then they are mostly chains of a large corporation or a franchised agent. Profits are taken by the few from the many. More people are wage-earners than owners of their own business.



4. An informative and entertaining book. It explains how the the Federal Reseve operates and control the money supply; but this information is mingled with the events of the the 1980's. My main motivation for reading this book was to acquire this knowledge. It was very interesting to learn what happened behind the scenes in the White House as it struggled with
   the 1980's recession. The book, however, gives too many examples of how
   people reacted, essentialy repeating the same message. This book could
   have been half as long without losing any of its value.



5. This book gives out no secrets - it is more of a fanzine. Don't waste your money. The Creature From Jeykl Island is better history and Web of Debt is better current events.

5 comments about The White Man's Burden: Why the West's Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good.

1. Whilte the author has some important and sometimes hard-hitting points to make about foreign aid and its effectiveness (or lack thereof), it's obvious he still wants to get invited to the cool cocktail parties in New York. He correctly focuses on the aid community's penchant for big projects with no specific accountability vs. smaller, user-oriented ones. However, he seems obliged to maintain a veneer of "neutrality" by opposing military operations despite their proven success in cases like Japan and South Korea. He also over-uses statistics in questionable circumstances that make for heavy going and undermine his credibility. It's also a little pathetic that he has to make clear from little family vignettes that he is a vegetarian and imposes an artsy-fartsy lifestyle on his kids. Not a surprise that he's divorced. Still worth the read.



2. The main thing I do share with Easterly is his disdain for the rockers and the dreamers.
   
   However, beyond that, the main theme of this book is a simple tautology--if it works according to whatever criteria he stipulates, it's a "Seeker," if it doesn't, it's a "Planner." And lo and behold, the Planners are the bad boys, because they never succeed. There is nary a recognition of the fact that if you want to "seek" to help the poor somewhere, there are always those pesky governments to deal with. Just one example: he argues that the amounts of money that have been spent on roads in developing countries have ultimately had little impact in many situations, because roads deteriorate. So he recommends that donors need to build maintenance into their programs. Alas, in many parts of the world road maintenance is a job for the local government (which he acknowledges by citing how he deals with a pothole in the States). Now is his recommendation tantamount to suggesting that donors build up local government in developing countries, run by -- what, contractors? Interesting concept.
   
   The basic issue remains: the poor tend to be poor on a large scale largely because they live in countries with bad governments at all levels. The Seekers (sometimes known as do-gooders) can help provide bandaids, but lasting solutions depend on ratcheting up government performance in those countries. How to accomplish that? There are some answers to that, but don't turn to Easterly for guidance.



3. I highly reccommend this book to anyone interested in understanding the world as it is. Economic, political, and historic factors make the world we live in, with the sharp contrasts inside and inbetween countries. Easterly efficiently describes why such constrasts exist, and what can be done to reduce inequality, at several levels (e.g. national policies, political programs, local development). For anyone interested in social development, or just in knowing why some people don't have food in their tables everyday, three times a day.
   
   Make yourself conscious of the world you live in, and, even better, take action to modify reality.



4. Here, William Easterly lifts the veil of fog and proceeds to make a big dent in our collective ignorance about the "ways of global poverty" and in the process tells us what "not to do" in trying to surmount it. His trenchant critique gives a whole new meaning to the biblical philosophy: Give a man a fish and you feed him for one day, but teach him to fish and you feed him for a lifetime," as well as to the well-worn adage that "the road to hell many times has been paved with good intentions."
   
   Always sharp, relevant, wise and delivered with the authority of a man who has "been there, done that, and bought the tee shirt," This is the testimony of a man who has wrestled in the trenches with the problem of global poverty and lost so many times that he has now figured out what he and everyone else have been doing wrong. He is like the "Archie Moore of Global Aid programs." And at least in principle Easterly now knows the score and what needs to be done to get global poverty right. His experience, his logic, his tenacity, the crispness but lightness of his writing, and his bravery in taking on the conventional wisdom (and all of its embedded sacred cows), convinces me that Easterly is the real deal; and that if he does not know what he is talking about then no one does.
   
   His story has the full ring of truth. It is one born both out of compassion and frustration. He is tactful, and gingerly tips around the currently reigning gurus and heroes of the global poverty fight, and here I mean such heroes as Jeffery Sachs, Gordon Brown and even Madonna and Bono. His story can be summarized somewhat as follows:
   
   While beautiful heartfelt and compassionate ideas coupled with a plan and money (so far the West has spent more than $2.3 trillion with minimal results), does indeed constitute a "valid" global poverty eradication program, it does not in fact constitute a "viable" one. And here is the twist: The difference between "valid" and "viable" is not just semantic or symbolic fluff, but the difference between success and failure. The presently used "so-called" valid formulas have been tried and have failed so often that they have long since passed the point of violating Einstein's maxim of how insanity is defined: "repeatedly trying the same old techniques and expecting a different result."
   
   The reason this formula may be "valid" but not "viable" is that unlike the distribution system that got nine million copies of JK Rowley's book "Harry Potter" into the hand of kids in less than a week, once the boxcars of food are dropped off in some godforsaken Third world desert, there is no well-oiled, well-motivated distribution system available to see that they then get to the needy. Most of those in need have no way of knowing that aid is available, and because of poor infrastructure, could not get to it even if they did.
   
   The incentive under such circumstances is for the lucky handful to use the "the White Man's" largesse either for the benefit of the immediately available and powerful few, or as a basis to begin the process of bureaucratization, which in the end amounts to the same thing. But Easterly knows as well as the rest of us, that even under the best of conditions, and even in the First World, bureaucracies exist only to siphon-off the resources to better perpetuate their own existence, and not to service their client, the poor, or to end poverty.
   
   It is the author's repeated and vivid analogies that drive home all of his key points. For instance, one of the reasons his "motivated middleman strategy" seems to work when bureaucracies do not, is that middlemen "gets paid" only after the end product is delivered to the recipient - whether that product is drugs, prostitution, Harry Potter Books, or poverty eradication. On the other hand, "poverty bureaucrats" (in the U.S. we call them poverty pimps) get paid "up front" for merely showing up on the job. There is no accountability or follow-up or even penalties for undelivered products, and thus they remain unmotivated to get the products out to the recipient. When this disincentive is coupled with local obstacles, such as lack of distribution infrastructure, ignorance or local politics, then it is easy to see why poverty aid has become a magnet for bureaucratic corruption and political machinations rather than for the eradication of poverty.
   
   According to the author, we allow our poverty fighting institutions (from the UN Relief agencies to ad hoc AIDs groups) to get caught-up in this bureaucratic trap by asking the wrong question: "What can foreign aid do for poverty?" -- rather than the proper one: "What can foreign aid do for poor people?" In his most colorful analogy, Easterly compares setting goals and sending money and food before this question is answered to sending a cow to the Kentucky Derby and expecting that by properly training and grooming it, it will compete successfully against thoroughbred racehorses. No matter how well the cow is groomed, trained or how many oats you feed it, the cow has no chance of winning. So too is true for poverty eradication programs that rely only on top-heavy bureaucracies. (Bureaucracies eat oats too, don't they?)
   
   What is the solution to Global Poverty?
   
   Easterly thinks that grandiose goals must first be tapered or given up altogether: Ending global poverty is not going to happen any time soon, if ever. And "having ending it" as an immediate goal is impractical and ultimately self-defeating.
   
   However, if we keep our ears and our aid close to the ground where micro-management is implicit and becomes "built in" rather than explicit, we can make a big dent in poverty by creating opportunities locally where none existed before. When we educate poor kids, especially girls, and otherwise use what people on the ground need and know, we are actually leveraging that knowledge into a force multiplier, that ripples horizontally across the landscapes of the poor, and trickles across rather than telescoping downward as is the case with bureaucratically driven models. In doing so, grassroots approaches have just the opposite effect of getting trapped in cycles of bureaucratic red tape: They tend to maximize the distribution and immediate utilization of scarce resources rather than minimizing and even working against them.
   
   But also implicit philosophy is being "tapped" in Easterly's reasoning. It is the same philosophy that has shown proven results and has been successfully exploited by notables such as the Noble Laureate Muhammad Yunus in his micro-lending programs in Bangladesh. It is a philosophy that is so often ignored that it has become a leitmotif of bureaucratized Aid Relief Programs: People on the ground often know better how they are best to be helped than bureaucrats in capital cities, or those with good intentions writing impersonal checks in far away lands.
   
   What people need is not the equivalent of America's Thanksgiving day handouts of old canned goods, but the dignity and connections that go with being able to create ones own opportunities. It seems that the biblical adage of give a man a fish and feed him for a day, or teach him how to fish and he will feed himself for a life time, works better in the world of global poverty than does Aid bureaucracies.
   
   A valuable addition to the discussions and literature of poverty eradication, and to a potential mid-course correction to those many failing efforts. Five Stars



5. Well researched and very well written critique of foreign development aid. Very useful in challenging the conventional wisdom of much strategic aid policy

5 comments about Trading ETFs: Gaining an Edge with Technical Analysis.

1. Deron Wagner desrves a great deal of credit for having the courage to break the mold on Wall Steet. A wonderful book for experienced investors.



2. This is a great book to learn about ETFs and how to trade them. Deron Wagoner shares his knowledge and outlines a concise methodology for trading. Definitely a reference book you will continue to profit from.



3. Deron Wagner,in Trading ETFs, has presented a very simple, logical and, I think, successful approach to trading ETFs. In a very readable and understandable style and utilizing numerous chart examples, Mr. Wagner describes how he goes about finding the highest probability trades, how he determines the optimum entry point, how he manages open positions, and how he exits positions be they big winners, breakevens, or losers.
   
   He describes his approach as being a "top down strategy". His first step is to determine the direction of the broad market trend; then, once the trend is determined, he finds those indexes that have the most relative strength or weakness compared to the major indexes; then he selects the strongest ETFs within those indexes (or weakest if going short); then he looks at volume for confirmation; and finally he uses one or more of several techniques to properly time the new entry into the selected ETF.
   
   The one thing that I liked most about Mr. Wagner's book was his use of clean and simple charts. He uses almost exclusively only two and sometimes three moving averages, draws simple trendlines and areas of support and resistance, and shows volume levels and averages. He does not "goop' his charts up with additonal indicators such as MACD-Histograms, slow stochastics, and RSI. While these indicators are certainly very useful to many traders, Wagner's plain, simple approach of looking only at price action and volume confirmation has a lot to be said for it.
   
   Risk management and position sizing are touched upon only briefly but adequately and his comments about using trailing stops are most enlightening.
   
   The two chapters describing case studies of 10 ETF's bought long and 10 ETFs sold short are most useful in illustrating the use of Mr. Wagner's various setups.
   
   I have read Trading ETFs only once now but I am already looking forward to going through it again a second and third time. It is the type of book that you can only absorb only so much the first time around but pick even more pearls of wisdom on subsequent readings.
   
   Needless to say, I recommend Mr. Wagner's newest book highly.



4. Were they all written by the same person? Vote with your feet when the reviews are bogus.



5. it looks very unusual that all the 5 star reviews are first timers to review. i have to agree with the last gentelman that there's something rotten in the kingdom of denmark