5 comments about Doing Business in the New Latin America: A Guide to Cultures, Practices, and Opportunities.

1. I highly recommend this book for anyone doing business in Latin America.
   
   I recently expanded my business into Central and South America and was desperately in need of education regarding the business practices and social customs of these new markets. I am usually more critical in my reviews, but Doing Business in the New Latin America exceeded my expectations tenfold, so please forgive my enthusiasm.
   
   I was expecting a dry and analytical tome in the style of the two other books I had already read: Winning Strategies for the New Latin Markets and Latin America's Economy: Diversity, Trends, and Conflicts. These books were beneficial in their own way, but Doing Business in the New Latin America is in an entirely different league.
   
   With only six chapters and 236 pages, you might think that the scope of the subject matter would be limited, but Thomas Becker has managed to cover every base by presenting only the most cogent and relevant material.
   
   This book is written with a casual professionalism--I felt as if I were having a conversation with a well-informed friend. Topics that elsewhere are lackluster and uninspired are here presented with enthusiasm and even humor. This book was actually fun to read.
   
   I began speed-reading the text, but quickly found so much worthy content that I finished the book word-for-word. My second time through, I marked up the pages for later reference, only to discover that I marked up almost every page so much that my business partner had to order his own copy.
   
   The chapter: Using Cultural Literacy to Hone Your Competitive Edge (alone worth the price of the book and the investment of time) explains not only the current and relevant customs and rituals of Latins, but gives them context by explaining the origins and evolution of those customs. I found these stories to be as fascinating as they were useful.
   
   I was horrified to learn that many of my new Latin relationships were already tainted by numerous easily-avoided faux pas and that I had missed opportunities that this book made clear to me. Still, my business has only begun to capitalize on this vast new market and the lessons I learned in this book will, I'm certain, be incredibly beneficial.
   
   The entertaining quality of this book does not overshadow its pragmatism. There are negotiating and selling tips (that are contrary to anything you've ever learned in the U.S.), communication methods, risk avoidance strategies, management practices, and brilliant applications of old-fashioned business approaches to an entirely new market.
   
   I particularly enjoyed the contrasts between the business styles and social norms of our two cultures, often presented in crystal-clear tabular format. I was surprised to learn, for instance, that the U.S. fascination with individualism is not well received in Latin America, where collectivism is the norm, especially among workers.
   
   The comprehensive index makes this book an excellent reference source. A Latin associate mentioned guayabera (a style of shirt) in an e-mail referring to dress codes and I found four references to this word in the book.
   
   I learned so much from this book that I came away feeling like an expert in Latin American business. I won't say that this is the only book you should read on the subject, but I will say that if you were only going to read one, this should be it.



2. Thanks to Dr. Becker for explaining in practical and action oriented detail the growth opportunities in Latin America for my small USA based company. After stumbling onto our first Mexican client, my team and I thought we better learn more about how Latin American business operates. Becker clearly highlights the economic and cultural factors that shape doing business in the region, as well as provides many "real-world" tips on how to spot opportunities, avoid pitfalls, and develop long term, profitable customers.
   
   An excellent book that provides current market intelligence on Latin America in an easy-to-read form.
   
   Chris Slocum



3. Very useful for new business men and for future visits!



4. basically ok, it was just scratched a little bit from the outside, so it might need better packinging. brgds



5. A very interesting, well-written book. It covers both the current status of business and business needs in latin america and also the cultural aspects of doing business there. Most books cover one topic or the other. This one blends both into a good read. Gives good, practical tips on negotiation techniques, dealing with the government bureaucracy, impression mangement, marketing to latin american consumers and business leaders, etc. Makes you think of dealing with the latin american market from a whole new perspective. Buy it if you are thinking about doing business in latin america or even if you are already there.

5 comments about Las Venas Abiertas de América Latina.

1. Podemos decir sin dificultad que este es un libro contra el capitalismo; lo es. O que el autor da una opinión parcial; así lo hace.

   En este libro se muestra lo que pretende ser la otra cara de la historia y las noticias: Los datos que no conseguiríamos al buscar en sitios "oficiales" (reportes del FMI, grandes agencias noticiosas y similares). En el libro se dan datos acerca de pobreza, miseria, traición, asesinatos, hambre,...

   Podemos estar de acuerdo o no. De cualquier modo, para tener una mejor perspectiva de la situación, recomiendo leer también El manual del perfecto idiota latinoamericano, libro que considero el complemento de Las venas abiertas de América Latina.

   Aunque esté de más decirlo, conviene leer ambos libros críticamente, con la cabeza fría, como debe ser con los libros de estos temas.

   Las venas... ha sido prohibido en algunos países, aunque está en su 73ra edición en español (2001). La primera edición es de 1970 y la revisión de 1978. Nada cambia de una a otra, sólo algunos datos son añadidos. Esto es una muestra de su gran popularidad, pero cada lector debe decidir acerca de la veracidad de su contenido.




2. Hay verdades en este libro, pero es ridiculo que uno pueda creer que USA es el que a causado todo los problemas de latinoamerica. Japon y Corea del norte vieron intervencion "Gringa" y esos paises estan muy bien. Estan muy bien por la intervencion Americana? no. Pero latinoamerica no esta tan mal por la intervencion Amricana. Y este libro habla de Cuba como si fuera un paraiso cuando todos conocemos la realidad de Cuba, si Cuba es tan maravilloso porque tantos cubanos arriesgan sus vidas por salir de Cuba?
   O porque tantos latinoamericanos van hacia USA, porque quieren ir al "dark side" si es el imperio malo?

   Porfavor, ya es timepo que paremos de hacernos la victima y en cambio de gastar el tiempo culpando al "malo imperio americano", mejor trabajemos para tratar de sacar a latinoamerica adelante.




3. jamas he visto tanta ignorancia y mentiras sobre latinoamerica escritas en un solo libro. despues de haber leido este libro me he dado cuenta de donde proviene la miseria que existe en latinoamerica: de la misma gente de medio pelo, vaga e ignorante que cree que los EEUU es la causa de todos sus males. un mensaje para ellos: ponganse a trabajar y a producir cuerda de vagos!
   obviamente este libro es otro manifiesto frustrado de un comunismo muerto que no sierve para nada. pura basura propagandistica, que para eso si son buenos los comunistas.



4. The book content was excellent but the print was poor, some pages had missing words or letters.



5. El concepto final que el Sr. Galeano busca transmitir es que "Nosotros somos pobres porque ellos son ricos".
   
   Para ello, teje una fantasiosa red de cuentos conspiracionistas, la mayoría de los cuales no tienen fundamento alguno.
   
   La razón de la pobreza en Latinoamérica (vivo en Uruguay y he conocido la realidad de muchos países latinoamericanos) es justamente porque la gente le cree a personajes como Galeano y toma su teoría como una excusa para no tomar la actitud necesaria frente a la vida y en el trabajo. Somos pobres porque mientras nuestros gobernadores evitan el desarrollo con sus políticas marxistas, estos mismos corruptos nos roban y nos dejan en la miseria, escondiéndose detrás de libros como éste y echándole la culpa de la pobreza a "los del Norte".
   
   Hay demasiados casos de países que han sufrido más que Latino América (Europa después de la guerra, Japón, Corea, el mismísimo Chile) que han dejado de lado estas ridículas teorías, se han puesto a trabajar en serio para progresar.
   
   Si este libro fuera un libro de fantasía infantil, le hubiera dado 5 estrellas.
   
   Si quieren leer algo real, serio, recomiendo:
   El Manual del Perfecto Idiota Latinoamericano (Plinio A. Mendoza, Carlos Alberto Montaner, and Alvaro V. Llosa)
   Cuentos Chinos (A. Oppenheimer).
   
   Lo irónico es que el Sr. Galeano debe estar disfrutando de que su libro esté llegando masivamente al mundo globalizado con sus "destructivas" herramientas como lo es Amazon mismo, y debe estar haciendo su platita a través de este sistema, que es el objeto de crítica de su libro.
   
   POR FAVOR!!!!

No comments about Microeconomics Issues Today: Alternative Approaches.

4 comments about Incoterms for Americans (Fully Revised for Incoterms 2000).

1. After I first read Mr. Reynold's predecessor book on Incoterms I felt I finally understood this technical topic. The new book, fully revised for Incoterms 2000, follows the same format. Each chapter is devoted to one of the 13 Incoterms so it can be easily digested. Each chapter contains an easy to read scenario of how the Incoterm may be used in a real international trade transaction and how it affects all other phases of the transaction including the ability or inability to collect payment.

   The most valuable feature is the ending section of each chapter, entitled "American Perspective." It discusses how Americans should or should not use this particular term, or at least be aware of any caution flags.

   Incoterms for Americans is a valuable commentary on an important topic.




2. No sane person reads about INCO terms for fun, and if your work requires that you understand the details of international quotes & shipping then this is a required reference work. The author, who sat on the international drafting committee, is perhaps as knowledgable on this subject as any American. He also teaches an excellent seminar on the subject.



3. I found this book to be full of information. Instead of giving a vague and general outline of the Incoterms (for example, just listing EXW as buyer pays all shipping), Reynolds go full bore into the subject with what if's scenarios, detailed look at each one and tells you how each contract is implemented and the limits of each term. He even put copies of pro formas for some of the incoterms!
   
   Considering the fact that this book is more than half the price of the ICC book and tailored to Americans, I highly recommend it!



4. Frank Reynolds has produced a comprehensive interpretation of the global language of international trade in a format that is easily understandable by Americans involved in international commerce. First published in 1936 by the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), Incoterms 2000 are the latest revised set of 13 international commercial terms recognized as the standard trade terms of international business.
   
   Used by importers/exporters, they define the roles, responsibilities and obligations of buyers/sellers in transactions involving the international movements of goods and help to eliminate misunderstandings as to the term of trade by which a particular transaction is being conducted. They help define the point at which the responsibilities, risks and obligations of the seller end and begin for the buyer and the required documents that must be generated for official and commercial purposes.
   
   As some of the Incoterms, when defined, may be in conflict with similar terms of sale (such as EX Works, FOB) as used for domestic business and found in the official United States legal code - the Uniform Commercial Code (UCC), the author thoroughly explains the difference and highlights the adjustments needed when considering similar Incoterms for international transactions.
   
   The book clearly describes the meaning of each Incoterm, explains the buyer-seller responsibilities under each term and illustrates what a typical pro-forma invoice would reflect on a proposed export transaction. With each Incoterm described, it also offers an American perspective on best practices and recommendations from the author's numerous years of trade experience and his enviable position as the US delegate on the ICC drafting committee that revised the terms that resulted in Incoterms 2000.
   
   Of particular interest especially to inexperienced American exporters, the author offers some very important caveats covering such areas as port customs, insurance considerations, potential confusions in regards to the difference between shipment and delivery terms, the use of appropriate terms that best fit particular transactions, compliance with US Export Control and Incoterm limitations. Although published in 1999, this edition is still up-to-date as the subject matter it addresses is still current as of the date of this review in 2007. Readers may, however, be mindful that the reference made in the publication to the Uniform Customs and Practices for Documentary Credit (UCP500) - the rules that govern letters of credit transactions - will be replaced by a revised set of rules (UCP600) on July 1, 2007.
   
   Since the new UCP600 rules no longer provide for 'revocable' credits, it will no longer be necessary to stipulate in the payment term section of the pro-forma invoice that the letter of credit should be 'irrevocable' as reflected in those relevant sections in Incoterms for Americans. A minor editorial detail of omitting the currency in which costs are reflected in pro-forma invoices on pages 103, 104 and 110 should be French Francs, US Dollars and US Dollars respectively. The author would agree that such seemingly insignificant details of omission would create a discrepancy, delaying payment, in an invoice presented to a nominated bank for a letter of credit transaction.
   
   As one with over 25 years of foreign trade experience, I would highly recommend this well written volume as a desk reference guide for any American foreign trader who desires a working knowledge, understanding and application of Incoterms 2000.

2 comments about The Oxford History of the American West.

1. This is an extremeley interesting and well balanced account of the history of the American West. It covers a lot of things many people aren't aware of. Very enjoyable. You'll learn something.



2. You'll get instant fact poisoning and an excellent overwiew of the Wes

1 comments about Panic on Wall Street: A History of America's Financial Disasters.

1. Excellent resource for understanding the motivations and details of U.S. financial panics past. Look for the 1988 editon that includes commentary on the 1987 Crash: ISBN 0-525-48404-3. Later edition is simply a reprint of the original 1968 text without this information. Also highly recommended: Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor and Dying of Money by Jens Parsson (long out-of-print) for the hyperinflatiory events of Weimar Republic, Germany.

1 comments about Bringing the Food Economy Home: Local Alternatives to Global Agribusiness.

1. Calculating the true cost of getting your family's typical dinner on the table would reveal a shocking price! In addition to produce cost itself, you would have to include the delivery charges for each meal component: from the producer via long distance shipping, packaging, storage, and distribution to you via your local supermarket. The authors suggest that product travel distance in reaching our table should be calculated in 'food miles'. The further the distance - the higher the price . At least that's what it should logically be.
   
   However, as consumers, most of us rarely pay the full cost of any food item. If we did, we would appreciate more readily how the global food system has turned food production on its head. Thus claim the authors of this concise and illuminating analysis of globalization of the agribusiness and its impacts on our well-being. While this slim volume might appear otherwise, the study is packed with useful information and concrete data. It explains why we are facing major problems in the food economy around the world. In developing and industrialized countries farmers are abandoning their land to large-scale cash-crop agribusiness or big corporations. The push for crop monocultures is contributing to land degradation and is skewing food supplies. The authors demystify the notion that a globalized food system is more efficient and economic and question the logic of its processes. For example, in recent years the UK has been importing about as much milk as it has exported! The only beneficiaries of this artificial trade balance, they argue, are the transport businesses and the financial speculators. As tax payers we subsidize the transportation business by allowing governments to subsidize the development of big agriculture to the detriment of local farmers everywhere. The authors encourage the reader to examine these issues and outline what we can do as consumers and citizens, to reverse current trends. Examples and case studies are interleafed with tables and statistics illustrating the underlying argument of the authors: to restore local food production and closely link it to the consumer.
   
   In this well-structured and easily followed study, the authors examine global food issues from all possible angles: food and health, food and economy, food and community; food and marketing ecologies and (local) food security. In addition, the authors expose the serious environmental impacts of large-scale monoculture farming and the unnecessary transport of food shipped across the globe or from one end of the country to the other (in the US). For example, US cookies are exported to Denmark while Danish cookies are exported to the US! Why not, the authors argue, just swap recipes at minimal cost?
   
   In each chapter the implications of globalizing the food sector are summarized, critiqued and contrasted with working alternatives. For example. initiatives of community-based agriculture or consumer-coops are introduced that are springing up in many countries. While food production and trade in the developing world are not addressed as the primary focus of the analysis, the consistent negative impacts of a globalized food system on the populations in the South have provided the authors with strong arguments for local diversity in food security systems. Norberg-Hodge, in particular, has a long track record of researching the impact of international development policies on traditional functioning rural communities in the South.
   
   The intended audiences of this book are clearly the consumers and citizens in the industrialized countries. The examples given are highlighting the situation in the US and UK. Yet, they also present interesting insights into other countries' situations. The authors' conclusion is that the food economy needs to be shifted from its current global level to the local wherever possible. This does not mean, they contend, that all food trade should stop or the consumer should no longer be able to buy exotic foods from far away. Instead, they argue, the priority has to be that people produce staple food locally wherever possible. Food should be imported only where the local resources cannot fulfill the demand of the population. Local produce is usually healthier, fresher and can be more appropriate for the local diet and culture. It is also much cheaper if transport, packaging and storage costs for long distance travel are to be included in the true price of food.
   
   This a book to absorb and not just to read once. It calls for action by everyone and is a toolkit for all those seriously engaged in educating people of all ages in health, environment and all food issues. A resource guide is added for further study and action. [Friederike Knabe, Ottawa Canada]

5 comments about International Economics.

1. I've found this book easy to follow, even if I'm not very good at Economics. Simple, with many examples and graphs. Case studies and good bibliography at the end of each chapter.



2. The book really brings an in depth analysis of the modern financial world, through a very simple and easy to access method of presentation. Good for students, interesting for any other reader...



3. This provides different kinds of examples as well as theories. It no doubt helps students learn about the real world. Particularly,the chapter on tariff policy is good enough to have a good grasp of the field.



4. I don' t think it is any better than other texts and I just want to balance out the overall rating average by giving a low rating.



5. The author, Dominick Salvatore, is clearly an expert in the field. Unfortunately, his field appears to be Keynesian economics circa the 1960s, and is almost completely wrong, and at times, incoherently wrong. Imagine that in the 1940s to the 1970s, man's knowledge of chemistry was thrown out the window, and replaced with alchemy. This is what Keynesianism did to economics. I have only read the second half of the book, but it simply makes no sense. It rambles on and on about balance of payment "deficits," which are impossible, as the capital account and current account always will balance each other out. It is obsessed with "equilbria" and "disequilibria," based on a mythical "balance of payments" deficit and surplus, rendering such diversions meaningless. The text dumbly assumes that trade between a person across the street from you is completely different from a person across the world from you, and senselessly assumes that government intervention in the economy can achieve policy objective, contrary that the entire historical record indicates this is not the case. Reading this text, one feels like they are in a particularly blighted region of the 19th century, or in Soviet Russia. There is incredibly little of accurate knowledge in this horrifically bad text. Knowing what's in it might be good for passing an exam, but it doesn't teach anything useful beyond that, and unfortunately, it's over reliance on graphs, with mind numbing references to said graphs splattered across multiple pages, makes it very difficult to pull anything together. In summary, Salvatore is an expert in a discredited field, and I am sure if he put in the time and thought, the 10th or 11th edition could actually begin to approach a modern understanding of economics, instead of the dark ages of economics, and thereby become a useful education tool, as opposed to one of indoctrination of failed principles and concepts.

5 comments about Universities in the Marketplace: The Commercialization of Higher Education.

1. Derek Bok, a professor and formerly president of Harvard, writes about the pressures for commercialization that institutions of higher education face and are likely to face in the future. (Commercialization is defined as "efforts within the university to make profit from teaching, research and other campus activities.") In particular, Professor Bok has taken on three major themes: commercialization of athletics, research and education (online teaching, extension programs, etc.)

   For one, this book is a useful reality check. Through scores of studies, Professor Bok dispels the myth that these three activities are profitable. Save few exceptions, these endeavors prove financially disastrous. More than that, there are the hidden dangers of compromising a university's academic standards and standing in the community. The call for a candid evaluation of the costs of commercialization is half of the book's theme.

   The other half outlines prescriptions and guidelines for university presidents about how to handle these increased pressures. Professor Bok suggests revision to NCAA rules, and university oversight and care to limit the influence of corporate sponsors over research or the curriculum taught in schools.

   In the end, "Universities in the Marketplace" is a reminder that universities are built around values: "the larger message of a liberal arts education [is] that there is more to life than making money." These values and the collaborative spirit, on which universities thrive, are threatened by the mistaken perception that there is money to be made by exploiting a school's name. The adherence to high standards is an old prescription for new pressures, and the one that Professor Bok suggests as the ultimate guideline for dealing with the threats of the future.




2. Anyone who has been associated with higher education in this country in the last fifty years is aware of the massive changes that have been sweeping over private colleges and state university systems in the last twenty to thirty years, changes ranging from the unfortunate consequences of political correctness to those associated with a relaxation of more rigorous academic standards to make such education "more accessible" to the population at large to other changes associated with the increasing concentration on more practical "vocational" educational skills to the proliferation of shop-as-you-go graduate educational programs, diploma mills designed to deliver to consumers a plethora of MBA and other business-oriented degrees in service to their career progression. Those of us professionally associated with higher education have often bemoaned the sad changes visiting themselves upon what was once a proud institution, the marvel of the western world in terms of its level of rigor, accessibility, and relative merit in terms of educational product.

   In this recent tome by former Harvard University president Derek Bok, yet another form of change and devolution of all the academy once stood for is discussed with both intelligence and wit; the commercialization of institutions of higher education and the associated seduction and corruption of faculty, administrators and the university system itself. Bok takes a probing look at the many ways in which financial enticements have entered the ivory towers, and how such temptations are profoundly altering the business of the university system itself, often warping both the mission of the institution as well as the intellectual products flowing from the academic marketplace. Beginning with the advent of financial gain associated with college sport programs, the author wonders out loud at what point the transformation of what was once an ancillary concern for additional source of academic funding became a much more purposeful source of university profit, resulting in much more deliberate efforts on the university's part to use sport for financial gain.

   He similarly muses over the fashion in which independent medical research efforts within university setting have become captive to the driving force of pharmaceutical and other medical enterprises, such that the focus and progress of medical research becomes much more focused on particular kinds of patent-driven and/or profit-oriented enterprises, efforts that if successful can turn humble medical researchers into instant millionaire tycoons. Similarly, universities now find themselves competing over intellectual hot properties like cybernetic wiz-kids, with places like Harvard offering fringe benefits like free homes in Concord or Lexington MA in order to lure promising young computer superstars capable of drawing a lot of grant money and/or corporate sponsorship to the institution. Finally, he debates as to what the practice of beginning such internet-based distance learning programs will have on both the quality and nature of higher education in the future, since it could well have significant consequences for those wishing to actually do their study on-campus.

   Of course, commercialization has some positive aspects to it, as with the excellent (and quietly profit-oriented) extension university system associated with Harvard. One can gain access to the same faculty and coursework as is available in the full-time day programs at Harvard in part-time evening programs (both undergraduate as well as graduate) that are relatively inexpensive, have few entrance requirements and all of the advantages of a more rigorous Harvard liberal arts education. While it is likely true that the program exists as a way of Harvard itself cashing in on the cache of its name, it offers a quality educational program and provides a potential excellent product for a discerning consumer. At base, this is an absorbing book, one well worth the time and effort to thread through its 200 some pages in search of some provocative and thoughtful observations of the drawbacks associated with the increasing commercialization of the university marketplace. It is a book I can highly recommend. Enjoy!




3. Derek Bok does a respectful job in describing the issues. The book provides an excellent foundation for the general public to understand the influence of commercialization on higher education. Higher education is big business in the United States. The book's relevance to issues related to intercollegiate athletics, higher education research, online delivery of education and other influences on academics is necessary to understanding the impact of commercialization, both positive and adverse, on higher education today.
   I found the book to be interesting, yet somewhat limited in that often the book was repetitive and the ideas shared were fairly obvious examples and too narrow in scope. When the book was published in 2003, online education far surpassed some of the descriptions provided by the author. To suggest that one online class could cost one million dollars to develop is overstated and many of the examples of the type of pedagogy in online education were naïve and not current. Also, all Division I college athletic programs are not administered as Bok describes. He over generalizes when suggesting that admission standards at universities are lowered to accommodate student athletes. This is not always the case.
   Certainly Derek Bok's credentials speak for themselves, but it appears that in writing this book, additional research and new ideas could have been presented.



4. Former Harvard University President Derek Bok warns that making commercial ventures part of the fabric of U.S. higher education endangers universities' basic values and goals. However, he also gives compelling descriptions of why trustees and administrators are tempted to sign deals with corporations. He is realistic about the slim prospects for keeping such ventures away, especially since some - like sports teams - are already entrenched. Because Bok's analysis is so deeply rooted in his years of experience leading Harvard, his proposed guidelines for how and when to allow big business on campus are particularly helpful. His views are occasionally unwarrantedly sunny, such as when he avers that faculty members rarely guide students into work that promotes the teacher's financial gain. He also asserts that faculty must be wary of collaborating with pharmaceutical companies to get access to facilities and materials, even though funding unfettered research has become increasingly difficult. Furthermore, after asserting that doctors are alert to drug companies' promotions in sponsored continuing education courses, he acknowledges research showing that doctors who attend such courses are more likely to prescribe the companies' drugs. Despite such detours, we find this book extremely valuable for anyone who believes that academic freedom and integrity truly matter. Academic leaders should read Bok's important, thoughtful and useful ideas on ways that colleges can minimize the risks of commercialization.



5. Great book with real life examples about higer education, capitalism, and marketplace. Quick and easy read.

3 comments about Russia 2010: And What It Means for the World.

1. Yergin and Gustafson present a series of three conceivable roads of reform along which Russia may travel between 1994 and 2010. The first scenario, "Muddling Down," which precedes all other roads in their model, is described as "the scenario that extends the present" (pg. 140). It is characterized by a weak central government and a lack of legal infrastructure. The three roads from this point are "Two-Headed Eagle" (the return of a strong state composed of both new and old elites), "Time of Troubles" (chaos and unprecedented decentralization inevitably leading to restrictive nationalism with overtones), and "Chudo" (the economic miracle, compared with both Germany during the 1950's and with Alice in Wonderland). Regardless of the path taken, the authors believe that the outcome will be the same: by 2010 "a capitalist Russia seems almost certain" (pg. 300).

   As I write this review, Russia is now six years further along its path than it was when the authors penned their book. Naturally, the material in this book is dated. The authors could have done a better job in making this book more accessible to a future audience -- especially that of a future in which none of these scenarios seem to be taking shape as expected. I would not rule out the possibility that some of the events discussed could still come to pass, but not within the timeframe proposed. For example, in one scenario, Yeltsin steps down in 1996 due to poor health. Looking back, he remained in power for another four years after that, despite heart surgery and repeated ailments. Could that particular scenario still be valid in the future? That depends on many other factors, of course.

   In their discussions on Russia's policy towards non-Russians (at home and in the Near Abroad), the authors overplayed the potential for problems with Ukrainians and underplayed the potential for problems with Chechens and other non-Russians to the south. The first Russo-Chechen conflict broke out at about the same time that this book was updated and revised. Yet even before that, one could have foreseen the potential for conflict in the Caucasus. The Summer 1993 issue of Foreign Affairs featured an article by Samuel Huntington entitled, "The Clash of Civilizations?" Huntington's influential article proposed that armed conflicts tend to occur along fault lines between civilizations. A prime example of such a fault line is Yugoslavia, where Islamic, Western, and Slavic civilizations come together at one point. By this rationale, the Caucasus and Central Asia are also fault lines. Ukraine, however, is not a fault line. Despite Ukrainians' dislike of decades of rule by Moscow, Ukrainians and Russians have too much in common for a serious rift to occur. After all, America overcame its antipathy towards its former ruler to become England's greatest ally.

   Overall, I would recommend this book with a cautionary note to the reader that the book is not as useful now as it might have been half a decade ago. That being said, the book does still hold water with respect to Russia's future and has certainly retained its value as an academic exercise in scenario-building.




2. Written in 1993, this book is still worth of reading today. Actually, it is more interesting to read today because some of the uncertainties in Russia back then had worked themselves out. The book was well structured and followed clear themes. The scenarios were plausible. I especially enjoyed the chapter on Russian transition from a market economy to a market one.



3. Written in 1993, it is fascinating to re-read "Russia 2010" today, 11 years later -- but still 6 years before the ultimate forecast date of the title -- to see how Dan Yergin and Thane Gustafson's predictions are doing. Given the events of recent months, with the school massacre in southern Russia and other terrorist actions, the ongoing brutal war in Chechnya, the continued clampdown on freedom of the press and civil society in Russia, the prosecution/persecution of leading business moguls (specifically, Mikhail Khodorkovsky), and President Putin's dramatic moves to increase his power, Russia should definitely be getting a lot more attention than most people have been giving it. Which makes the analysis of "Russia 2010" more relevant than ever.
   
   Most importantely, what Yergin and Gustafson did in "Russia 2010" was NOT to make absolute forecasts or to simply (and mindlessly) extrapolate from the situation at the time, but instead to apply powerful "scenario planning" techniques to thinking through the most likely futures for Russia. Back in 1993, the authors laid out four main scenarios: 1) "muddling down;" 2) the "Two-Headed Eagle;" 3) "Time of Troubles;" and 4) "Chudo" (economic miracle). How did the authors do?
   
   Today, in 2004, we can confidently conclude that #4 was wrong -- there has been no Russian economic miracle, although oil prices have certainly helped Russia recover from the post-Soviet low point of the early- to mid-1990s. It also turns out that #1, "muddling down," the scenario that came closest to simply extrapolating from the existing situation at the time (as most forecasters erroneously do) was somewhat off the mark in the long run, although its predictions of a "relatively free atmosphere" and "weak Russian central government" did hold true for a few years at least. Scenario #3 is interesting, as it accurately anticipates separatist tendencies (although not specifically mentioning Chechnya) and the reaction of the "Russian Bear" to reassert itself. To some extent, that's exactly what we see today.
   
   It is Scenario #4 (the "Two-Headed Eagle"), however, that appears to have hit the nail squarely - almost eerily so -- on the head. In "Russia 2010," Yergin and Gustafson posit that an attempted assassination on the Russian President by a "petty hoodlum"/mafia type "from the north Caucasus" leads to: a) Russian military action in that unnamed north Caucasus republic; b) a popular call for a crackdown on "the mafia, on corruption, and the private economy, which are all rolled into one in many people's minds;" c) the central government taking advantage of this situation to consolidate its own power, rein in the provinces, strengthen the executive over the legislative branch, reassert its control over natural resource exports; and d) an "ambivalent" and half-hearted Western reaction to these moves. Sound familiar? It should, because Scenario #4 -- the "premature reconstitution of a strong state" -- is almost exactly what we're seeing right now in Russia.
   
   What Yergin and Gustafson have done, among other things, is to have demonstrated the tremendous value of "scenario planning" -- rigorously thinking through possible future paths as opposed to mindlessly extrapolating from the present. Although the latter course of action may be the easier (and lazier) way of trying to predict the future, it is also the least helpful and least accurate. Why would we think the future would be just like the present and recent past? The simple answer? Failure of imagination, and the lack of courage to go out on a limb and stand out from the herd. As Yergin and Gustafson point out, the normal "extrapolate from the current situation" forecasting methodology failed us miserably during the past few decades, missing most of the major turning points of those years. For instance, just about nobody managed to predict the Iranian Revolution, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of Al Qaeda, 9/11, the course of oil prices from 1973 to now, or just about anything else during that period. Yergin and Gustafson, however, by spending some time and effort to actually think through possible scenarios, hit the nail on the head regarding the future of Russia in one of their four posited "scenarios" -- with two of the three others having large elements of truth as well. True, it's not 2010 yet, but as of September 2004, Yergin and Gustafson are looking pretty darned smart!