Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by William J. Bernstein. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio.
- Book goes through the history of investing. It gets quite technical and at times very difficult to follow, only really in one chapter where he discusses what affects stock prices. And rereading it helps out. As the author suggests though, just read a little bit at a time. It's a lot of material to digest. But overall it discusses the advantages of using index funds and the need to diversify. I feel that the book speaks the truth regarding investing and everybody should at least be familiar with the concepts discussed in the book.
- In the introduction to his book, "The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio," Dr. William Bernstein states that the "competent investor never stops learning." Yet, because the world of investing can be such a confusing place, it sometimes seems that the more you learn, the more confused you get. As a participant on the Bogleheads message board, I feel I am an educated investor but still I often get lost after reading all the different debates: Should I invest in total markets or slice and dice my portfolio? Should I invest all my money at once or adopt a dollar cost averaging philosophy? How much foreign exposure should I have? Is now the right time to buy REITs, or do I need them at all? One day, while perusing the message board and sifting through some of these same questions, I found a suggested investing reading list, and this book was listed as the starting point. In this straightforward book, explained with easy-to-understand examples, Dr. Bernstein provides a solid framework for investors to begin to answer some of these questions.
In setting this framework, Dr. Bernstein introduces readers to four basic concepts, or what he terms the four pillars of investing: the theory, history, psychology, and business of investing. The first pillar, the theory of investing, gets most of his attention, as it comprises the first 100 pages of the book and explains how the bond and stock markets work. In this section, Dr. Bernstein emphasizes what he calls the "most important concept in finance" - the relationship between risk and reward. If investors want high returns, they must take great risks. Following this logic, Dr. Bernstein makes some conclusions that may seem foreign to most investors. For example, the best time to invest is not when things are going well, but when they are going poorly. Those who invest during a bubble are not taking a risk and therefore can expect low returns, whereas those investing during a bear market are taking a risk and therefore can expect (but will not be guaranteed) higher returns. Similarly, those who invest in "good companies" like Wal-Mart can expect lower returns than those who invest in "bad companies" like K-Mart, because good companies, with low risk, are generally bad stocks, while bad companies are generally good stocks. This idea - that high returns cannot be achieved without significant risk - is the key concept Dr. Bernstein continues to emphasize throughout the book.
While the first pillar gets the most attention, Dr. Bernstein terms the second pillar, the history of investing, as "the one that causes the most damage" to investors. What separates the professional investor from the amateur investor is that the professional recognizes that bear markets are a fact of life - they inevitably come about once every generation, usually sparked by a new technological advance. Professional investors stay the course and don't panic; they have a plan and stick with it. In fact, for beginning investors, a bear market is a blessing, allowing them to accumulate stocks at low prices. This concept again ties to the relationship between risk and return: throughout history, in times of great optimism, when prices are the highest and the risk is the lowest, future returns are the lowest, and when times look the bleakest, and risk is the highest, future returns are also the highest.
In the third pillar, the psychology of investing, this relationship between risk and return is again raised. Most investors follow conventional wisdom of the time, investing in specific stocks or asset classes that are currently the most successful and thus buying at high prices. Dr. Bernstein provides two strategies to counter this psychology. He advises readers first to identify the conventional wisdom of the time and do the exact opposite. He also advises readers that assets with the highest future returns tend to be the ones that are currently most unpopular. The investor that is able to go against the flow - to stick with unpopular asset classes and pay attention to his or her entire portfolio return - in the long-run will be the most successful.
Finally, the fourth pillar concerns the business of investing, which details how brokers, analysts, and the media work together to make money at the expense of often ignorant investors by peddling bad or biased information. Instead of paying exorbitant fees to brokerage firms or financial advisors, which steer investors to underperforming managed funds, investors can buy low-expense index funds through companies like Vanguard and thus tap "into the most powerful intelligence in the world of finance" - the market itself, which is, according to Dr. Bernstein, the best advisor available.
Dr. Bernstein concludes his book by applying lessons learned from these four pillars and giving readers practical advice for how to construct their own portfolios. Although this section fell short of answering all my questions, the book as a whole serves as an essential investing guide in providing investors with a basic framework to use in evaluating the myriad of investing choices available. As even Dr. Bernstein concedes, "Four Pillars of Investing" is not an all-encompassing book on investing. It is not the only book you will need to read, and it is probably not the first investing book you should read, but it is nonetheless a book every investor should read.
- William Bernstein has written another must read for the individual investor who wants to chart his own course in the investment world. I was first introduced to this book at a local AAII chapter meeting. Everyone there who had read this book highly recommended it. I suggest reading this book before reading "The Intelligent Asset Allocator" also by the author.Both are excellent books on investing and well worth the time and money spent.
- Book was shipped fast, and came in great condition. Couldn't ask for anything more
- Excellent book about history and current investing. Would recommend it to anyone. If you do not know if you are speculating, read this
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Frank Gallinelli. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow... And 36 Other Key Financial Measures.
- This book goes over many methods to make an informed decision. I would reccomend this to a person that really wants to know different ways to analyze your deals. Very informative.
- "What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know about Cash Flow" is the definitive guide to understanding critical calculations that will help you to determine if a prospective acquisition target is a great deal to buy immediately or a horrible investment to avoid like the plague!
I've owned this book for years but often find myself referencing this wonderful and well-written manual.
Matthew A. Martinez
Author of "Investing in Apartment Buildings: Create a Reliable Stream of Income and Build Long-Term Wealth" and "2 Years to a Million in Real Estate"
www.matthewamartinez.com
- I have recommended to all of my friends to read the following books in order to shortcut the process and learn what they need to know. I told them this is what I would do if I did it over again. (I have my CCIM, Masters of RE from CU, ULI Development Certificate, NAIOP courses) But in all those, this would be most beneficial and starting here would help in short-cutting the process:
1) What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Cash Flow - Gallinelli
2) Insider Secrets to Financing Your Real Estate Investments: What Every Real Estate Investor Needs to Know About Finding and Financing Your Next Deal - Gallinelli
3) Professional Real Estate Development - 2nd Edition - Peiser
4) Principles of Real Estate Syndication - Friedman
5) Confessions of a Real Estate Entrepreneur - Randel
I have read several other real estate books, but they tend to go way off course. This one tells you practical knowledge shoring up the base/foundation in order to understand more complex issues, but at the end of the day, simplisity will win out.
I think I have probably told at least 10 friends to read these books and they should be part of their "Library" as this will get them where they need to go and understand without practical experience.
I wouldn't recommend it if I didn't think it wasn't great.
I have no relation or affiliation to Frank G, just have read so many books, would like to shortcut the process for other people eager to get there and I love to read other people's reviews on Amazon so I know which ones are useful.
Hope this helps
- This book is an essential for anyone new, or seasoned, in real estate. You won't find a better summation of how to cast you due dillegence net around any real estate you might want to buy. The style is easy to comprehend, just try reading up on internal rates of return in most of those other books out there! This book is a keeper for doing the numbers in real estate.
- Why did I not come across this wealth of information before? Anyway, this is an indispensable aid to any RE numbers cruncher, do the maths, due diligence...whatever. When is the latest edition to the other book coming out? Can't wait.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by George Soros. By Wiley.
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5 comments about The Alchemy of Finance (Wiley Investment Classics).
- I found this book to be quite disappointing. Soros talks about his financial investments with extremely dense prose, using some words I think are made up, and thoroughly unenlightening. He relates his "experiments", but they are not real ones in the sense of controlled scientific experiments. graphics annotations are unhelpful, tables of trades unenlightening.
As successful as he was/is, I was excited to get this book, but cannot recommend it at all.
- I ordered the wrong product and I requested that the order be cancelled. I submitted my request on a Friday. I did not get a response until Monday afternoon. My request was made before the ship date but seller would not cancel. Now I have to go through the trouble of returning it.
Poor communication!!!
- Soros has written a thoughtful and interesting book.However,there is nothing that is new theoretically.It was all said in a much more detailed and specific form in Keynes's A Treatise on Probability(TP;1921),where uncertainty(Soros's uncertainty principle-see pp.6-10,40) was analyzed mathematically using the variable called the weight of the evidence,w, in chapter 26( the weight of the argument in chapter 6 provided the logical analysis).Keynes used the term uncertainty in the GT to denote the same basic phenomenon applied to decision making involving a significant lack of knowledge and information on (a) investment in long lived durable capital goods subject to technological innovation over time(Daniel Ellsberg's nearly identical concept of ambiguity improves on Keynes's completely original formulation),(b)financial markets, and (c)liquidity preference decisions concerning the amount of liquid assets to hold for speculative purposes.Keynesian expectations are liable to sudden changes because they are not representable by the normal distributions's standard deviation(Risk),which is the basic foundation of E Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis,Milton Friedman's Monetarism,Robert Lucas's rational expectations,and Prescott and Kydland's real business cycle theory,etc.Keynes's analysis appears in chapter 12,pp.239-241 of chapter 17, and in pp.314-320 of the General Theory(1936;GT).It is interesting to note that Soros's own method of dealing with uncertainty,by using one's instinct and intuition ,is identical to the manner in which it was handled by Keynes.
Practically all of the examples from the financial markets used by Soros to show how his uncertainty principle(the reference to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is defective since the probability distributions are known.What Heisenberg meant by uncertainty was risk.Only one of the two hypothesized probability distributions in Heisenberg's example can exist at any one moment of time) is operationalized could just as easily have been mistaken for Keynes's chapter 12 analysis in the GT.The value in Soros's book is that it provides a more modern set of examples that updates Keynes's chapter 12 analysis of how uncertainty impacts decision making.Risk is a very special case that occurs when there is no uncertainty about the future.Uncertainty automatically makes probability estimates indeterminate.They become intervals.
Soros will have to be much more specific in the future about his uncertainty principle(reflexivity) so that a reader will be able to differentiate what Soros has done from what Keynes did(one must also mention Frank Knight's and Joseph Schumpeter's contributions in this area,although they are not nearly as specific and technical as the contributions of Keynes and Ellsberg).
Soros needs to be devote much more time to reading and digesting Keynes's works.The few one liners that refer to Keynes in this book illustrate that Soros has not done all of his homework yet.A clear cut comparison -contrast between Keynes and Soros would allow a reader to decide what is original in Soros's approach and what is merely a variation on Keynes's theme of uncertainty impacting many of the most important financial and investment decisions that will determine the future.
- Honestly this book was hard to follow and I'm still not sure how Soros does it. He is an excellent thinker but I think this book was over the top for me.
- How to become a billionaire? don't look here. In the end Soros provides no cookbook ways to become a billionaire. He is very intuitive and that ultimately determines his success. In the book, Soros documents his investment experience as if each is a scientific experiment. The price movement ultimately determines if his theory is correct. If he is wrong he dumps his investment. Extreme discipline. Most of us claim the market (or Mr. Market as Buffet says) is wrong and over time we will be right. Soros claims that price makes its own realities. The way he uses leverage is also a mystery at times he appears to be completely un-leveraged - rare in the hedge fund world.
The only gold in the book is his discussion of feed back loops. This I feel is so relevant to today's financial and real estate crisis. In a rising housing environment Loan to Value ratios go down, this creates success for the lender. The desire to loan is high and the supply of available money drives up prices further feeding this loop. In a declining real estate model the loan to value ratio increases exposing the lenders risk making it undesirable to lend no matter what the interest environment. The lender is stuck he can hope that his loan portfolio will be paid down or he can sell them for a loss in the open market. With loans hard to find and lenders wanting more money and higher qualifications from borrowers this assures there will be fewer buyers (buyers market). This feeds the downward loop with loan to value ratios rising even more as prices fall.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Bryan Burrough and John Helyar. By Collins Business.
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5 comments about Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco.
- The mantra "Greed is good" was uttered by that 1980s paragon of Wall Street virtue, Gordon Gekko, yet it could just have easily been any one profiled in this mind-warping 1990 account of the leveraged buyout (LBO) of cigarette-and-cookie conglomerate RJR Nabisco, starting with RJR's chief executive, Ross Johnson.
Johnson was the one who first saw the benefits of taking RJR's undervalued stock private, boosting both his wealth and control. Small economies were not for him.
"I'm telling you, we're not going to start running a pushcart operation here," he tells his LBO partners at the outset. "I don't want a bunch of your guys coming around saying we should have five jets instead of six."
Those jets, used strictly by Johnson and his C-suite buddies for such emergencies as shuttling Johnson's beloved pet dog to safety after it bit someone, were one of many symbols of Johnson excess. Just as odd were his stabs at practicality, like introducing a smokeless cigarette, "Premier", which drew like chalk and tasted worse.
Authors Bryan Burroughs and John Helyar, who covered the story in 1988 for the Wall Street Journal, seem to have been everywhere at once, and show no sign of suffering from lack of access. Whether it's LBO king and Johnson nemesis Henry Kravis, other bidding groups led by First Boston and Forstmann Little, or the RJR management board, everyone seems well represented. One gets the feeling some of these people enjoyed the chance to tell of their small part in one of the biggest stories of the decade.
Yet nothing seemed on the level here, least of all the money put up by the bidders, which had a heavy reliance on junk bonds. Numbers themselves made no sense. At one point in the bidding, Kravis engineers a deal whereby he and his partners are paid their operating expenses by RJR in exchange for hanging around another hour.
"Forty-five million dollars to wait sixty minutes. Incredibly [RJR head legal adviser Peter] Atkins and Company thought it was a good deal."
Burroughs and Helyar's greatest accomplishment is by sending you deep enough behind the looking glass that you understand Atkins' position. The authors do a great job of bringing the rest of the fantasy world to life with welcome doses of color and wit.
At times, especially at the end, they get hung up with the level of detail they present, telling us not only who was at a particular meeting but where they sat, who was eating an apple, who was wearing a puff handkerchief, what color it was, etc.
But the book is solid and well-written, and not nearly as snippy as it could have been. Only Johnson's buddy Ed Horrigan comes off as a complete hardcase. Johnson himself seems fairly amiable even at his greediest.
The well-remembered HBO adaptation softsoaps Johnson further by having him played by the quintessentially smooth James Garner. It's an enjoyable movie that made me want to read this. Now I find the book preferable for the more balanced way it handles other characters like Kravis and Ted Forstmann (a joke character in the movie, but a prescient figure in the book who came up with the expression that makes for the title.) There are a lot of brickbats in evidence here, but no axes.
Greed is still with us, of course, yet "Barbarians" takes us to a time when it managed at once to be more comical and stylish than today.
- Many people I know have read this book and rave about how good it is. However it is really just a factual account of the events with no real insight. The writing is ok but you are not transformed into the action. You get no since of the pressure or the egos. The characters are the real deal and the writes don't all you to understand them or even get you to like or hate them. The book left me a bit flat but if you have no idea how companies are bought and offers are made it is still worth the read. If you know how companies are bought it is worth the read just to be scared to death.
- The author said it himself, "What does all this have to do with business? ". I bought this book hoping to get an insight into how large companys are run. Unfortunately it was full of details on how companys are sold, not run. I suppose if that is what you are after, then the book does its job. But if you wanted to learn something about real business, this is NOT the book for you.
- Definition of a page-turner, loved it. The authors got so much out of their interview subjects, the personal thoughts and dialog left you feeling like you were a part of these negotiations. They portrayed everyone even-handedly when it was probably tempting to make villains out of Ross Johnson or Henry Kravis. Extremely entertaining, a first class example of literary non-fiction.
- Jump right into the middle of one of the biggest and most tumultuous leveraged buyouts in history. After reading this book, you will feel as though you know the players involved...everybody from F. Ross Johnson at RJR Nabisco to Peter Atkins, the lawyer from Skadden Arps who handled the bidding. The information contained in this book is worth at least 6 semester hours toward your MBA! In fact, I'd venture to say that reading books like "Barbarians at the Gate" will leave you better prepared than almost any MBA program in the United States.
Can you tell I loved this book????
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Leveraged Sellout. By Hyperion.
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5 comments about Damn, it Feels Good to Be a Banker: And Other Baller Things You Only Get to Say If You Work On Wall Street.
- Probably the funniest book I've ever read, even better than the blog. I read it cover-to-cover in one sitting. Twice as funny if you work in finance and know a lot about the industry, but nonetheless hilarious for anyone who isn't easily offended or can take a joke.
- Having been a massive fan of the website the book was always going to be great fun! The guy who wrote it clearly got bullied at school..
- I pity poor old "Leveraged Sellout", which would be the most wounding thing one could do to him ("one" being a person not blessed enough to work in front office advisory M&A at a bulge bracket investment bank), but only for his timing. After the events of September 2008 it's going to be a while before anyone preens about working in a Bulge Bracket investment bank on Wall Street. At this point (still in September 2008) there are only two left, one (Morgan Stanley) looking likely to go the way of all flesh in coming days (horror of all horrors courtesy of *Wachovia*!), and the last man standing, Messrs. Goldman, Sachs & Co, facing a very uncertain road ahead as an independent investment bank no matter how excellent its risk management, deal execution and intellectual capital may be.
So I pity the anonymous "Leveraged Sellout" simply because, as a result of his timing, this excellent and brutally funny little book will either disappear into the same gaping void that claimed Bear Stears, Merrill Lynch, AIG and Lehman Brothers or, worse, be held up by moronic lefties as a poster child for everything that was wrong with Wall Street.
It is no such thing. It's actually a riot - imagine a young Hunter Thompson or Tom Wolfe writing with verve about modern day Wall Street but not as an outsider or an ingenue, but fully steeped in the technical and cultural world of a 24 year-old master of the universe.
I have no doubt that whoever wrote this was a genuine insider - the observations and devastatingly funny sending up of the minutiae (such as the distinction between IBD and FICC and importance of never using your mouse when manipulating a spreadsheet) would never be apparent to an outsider who hadn't done a significant stretch. I spent 7 years at a bulge bracket bank myself (as a lowly inhouse lawyer, resolutely in unglamorous back office), and but for the inevitable comic hyperbole, Damn It Feels Good To Be A Banker rings very true. I loved every moment.
So it's kind of a historical document, even though it is pure satire. It captures the zeitgeist, circa August 2008, and if you've had any interaction with the IB fraternity in their prime - that is, before the Sub-Prime got them, you'll find this hysterically funny.
Olly Buxton
- The US economy is in disarray. The dollar is depreciating. The Europeans are laughing at us. Wall Street's elitists are taking government handouts. Investment banking is dead. Capitalism is dead. Private equity IRRs are down owing to defunct credit markets. Lehman and Bear bankers are all jobless. Merrill evaporated to pixie dust. No longer is there any appeal to banking or private equity. How can one tout a profession that is all out of a job where bonuses are cut to zero? We are in a very sad state. It used to feel good to be a banker. Now being a banker means being on welfare. Government cheese. What a bunch of losers.
- This book has some good selected moments, however, I would recommend Monkey Business: Swinging Through the Wall Street Jungle instead. It is consistently funnier and more accurate, painting a truer version of what it's really like to be a junior banker.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Van K. Tharp. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom.
- If you are looking for trading recipies, this is NOT the book for you. This books describes the trading process in an open approach, whithout selling speaches, trading formulas or magical enchaments. It describes the importance of risk management of your trades, and the pshycology and biases that are part of every system. Though general, the offered information serves both from what someone would call academic understanding, and the practical side of trading. The book is not academic though, as you will not see tons of equations, proofs, or algorithms.
I think it is a must for everone that does not want to jump into trading someone elses formulas, but to understand the mechanics and the psycology of trading. It contains references to other books that will help you understand the trade reciepies.
So if you want to understand what you are doing, or at least what you are supposed to do and the biases associated to your decisions, buy the book. If you want to trade like a maniatic daredevil who is told what to do by following nonsense schemes, you dont need this book.
No wonder why some readers were dissapointed. My impression, its the readers fault not to aim to higher goals while buying and reading a trading book.
- I think this book is over-rated. You can find better information in other books. For example, Alexander Elder's "Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management," and William O'Neil's "How To Make Money In Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times or Bad, 3rd Edition." Both books are good and easy to read.
- Essential reading for any budding trader from any planet.
Find out why trading is exactly 100% psychological.
If you harbour any other point of view, read this, you must.
Cheers, Yoda.
- The authors tried to cover many aspect of trading, from technical, fundamental, psychology,... he comes with a lot of information that bring nothing to your trading. He explain very simple thing in a complicate manner, sometime not easy to understand. I think he doesn't know much about trading and all his writing is from the conversation with others (limited) trader. If you are looking to learn about trading and want start to trade it is not a recommendation, you may try to read what Alexander Elder wrote for example. Anyhow, you don't need to buy them, you can download for free the E-Book using P2P such emule...
- An extremely fun and exciting read when it comes to books on trading. This book more than met my expectations. It will guide you to define your expectations and goals for trading in a very simple, clear and concise manner. This book should be required reading for any and all traders, beginners or advanced alike. It is perfectly outlined with simple steps and guidelines and then summarized at the end of each chapter. Should be read by all so called "trading gurus" as well.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Joseph Michelli. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about The New Gold Standard: 5 Leadership Principles for Creating a Legendary Customer Experience Courtesy of the Ritz-Carlton Hotel Company.
- Joseph Michelli in his book "The New Gold Standard" shares the ultimate principles of lasting success. He is right when he says :"Great businesses grow their people, their communities, their customer base, and their profitability".He also says "Ritz Carlton leadership realizes that by teaching others, the service standards of the communities where they do business are elevated". Very powerful !
- Product or information businesses can learn so much from a caring business like the Carlton-Ritz.
This stylish book exemplifies the inspirational branding of the Carlton-Ritz with moving stories and practices.
- Excellent Book. The approach is simple and makes a lot os sense. Wish more businesses took this approach. I recommended this book to many of my clients. Dr. Joe Michelli did an excellent job. He understands business and has a great way of presenting his material
Jerry Rouleau
J. Rouleau & Associates, LLC & BuilderRadio.com
- This book is about the much acclaimed detailed, tightly structured training program that the Ritz Carlton Company has originated. The program is not only utilized to engage their employees all over the world to offer the very best, thoughtful service possible, but it is also to engage the customers that frequent their properties to the degree that they become life-long advocates for the Ritz. James A. Michelli, the author, relates his information in an interesting way and additionally, uses the Ritz' various training modes as examples for usage by other types of businesses. The book expounds upon the five leadership principles for creating a legendary customer experience, courtesy of the Ritz Carlton Hotel Company. This is definitely a "must read" for those interested in the hospitality industry.
- There is so much that is obvious and redundant in this book. Nevertheless, every company needs to consider the core message: How do you make the customer experience exceed expectations? What are the fundamental deliverables of those expectations.
Customer Satisfaction is only the beginning.
Winning companies need to build a real time nervous system that engages customers and potential customers (i.e. your marketplace and competitor customers, as well as your employees at all levels.
The nervous system measures and engages everyone in GREAT experiences, how to build them and what do they mean to the end user?
People link not to KNOWLEDGE, BUT EMOTIONS. This is the core that my company has discovered.
Martin Hoffmitz BehaviorWorx Inc.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
By Grove Press.
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5 comments about The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century.
- This book is long on illustrating a make-believe world that the author desires, and short on facts.
Very short on facts.......
The author manages to insults virtually every racial and geographic group - except for his own, of course.
Honestly, save your money, this book is a waste of time!
- I'm posting this mid-October 2008, in the midst of the global financial crisis. Here's a phophetic excerpt from The Long Emergency that was written in mid-2004:
"By the time you read this, it is very likely that the housing bubble will have begun to come to grief... The economic wreckage is liable to be impressive. If house owners cannot make their mortgage payments, Fannie May and Freddie Mac, and by extension the federal government, would be the big losers. The failure of [Fannie and Freddie] would make the Savings and Loans fiasco of the 1980s look like a bad night at poker... It could easily bring on cascading failures that might jeopardize global finance. This time, the American public will feel the pain... Our desperate problems with oil and gas will effectively shut down the growth of our industrial economies, and with that our expectations for economic progress, as we have known it... The transient and ephemeral condition of industrial hypergrowth that the world has known for just over 200 years will be over. Energy will be at an extreme premium, and human survival skill will be the new capital. What it may be like to live later on in the 21st century ("The Long Emergency") is the subject of the next chapter."
I haven't read the next chapter yet, though unfortunately I have a feeling we're all about to "live" The Long Emergency instead of "read" it.
~mark~
- Kunstler has formulated a vision of the future that is very frightening to those of us who have only known a cheap-oil world. The problem is not just global warming, but the breakdown of just about every product and service that we have come to rely on. The analysis of just how much we depend on fossil fuels is alone worth the purchase price.
I would be very interested to read a counter-point to this book. That is, what is an alternative, more hopeful outcome for the world when oil production begins to decline? Is there one? I would like to compare the plausibility of the future described in 'The Long Emergency' with a more optimistic one. I have a feeling, however, that Kunstler's pessimistic view of the future would be a lot more believable.
Anyway, this book is a must-read for anyone interested in energy issues. But since energy use underlies almost everything in our modern world, this book would be of interest to many. I highly recommend it.
- This book gives a lot of interesting historical and current information, but is a little too "doom and gloom" and repeats thoughts a little too much and also is too emotional for a nonfiction book. However, hopefully enough people will take notice of the message and start doing things differently.
- I don't know what's scarier; the doomsday scenarios laid out in this book that totally ignore and/or dismiss the human ability to overcome problems, or that this was assigned reading at my University. In the first five pages of the book, the author basically admits he is a member of the "die-off" crowd; the crowd that believes we are rapidly running out of oil and that civilization will self-destruct in our lifetime. He thinks that vast portions of the population will die off because the oil-free Earth cannot support them, that the United States will break up into regional territories, that we will be forced to revert back to 19th century pre-industrialized ways, (with maybe a few exceptions in medical knowledge retained) and that the suburbs will be abandoned and become the new slums, unfit for human habitation. He mocks those who believe that humanity will find another source (or sources) of transportation power. He is definitely skewing the argument in his favor, sometimes completely ignoring developments, such as advancing hybrid technology, and rapidly developing plug-in cars such as the Volt that GM is working on. You can't really blame him, though. Alarmism is the way to sell books. Would this book sell worth a darn if it were titled "The Temporary, Passing Emergency?" No. But, it's not all doom-and-gloom rubbish. I agree with him when he says that we need to get over our stupid fear of the nuclear boogeyman and start ramping up nuclear power again. The French get most of their power from nuclear; why aren't we? Has anyone in the United States EVER died from a nuclear power plant accident? (No!)
Anyway, I think I'll keep this book instead of selling it back to the bookstore at the end of the term. That way in 20 years when my kids come home teary-eyed from college, convinced that we only have a few years of civilization left, I can pull out this bad boy and show them this type of alarmist propaganda is nothing new.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Amy Shuen. By O'Reilly Media, Inc..
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5 comments about Web 2.0: A Strategy Guide: Business thinking and strategies behind successful Web 2.0 implementations..
- While most people who have worked in the internet space are familiar with these concepts, especially for entrepreneurs, reading this book and thinking through all the end of chapter questions is extremely helpful. All startups can revisit these questions again and again. I think despite the fact that this book sits squarely in the time of web 2.0, it will remain useful and relevant even when web 2.0 seems 'old-school.'
The questions at the end of each chapter are so, so great.
- Written in an engaging easy to read style; then you pour some coffee and the implications start to hit you. "If this, then..." and "Hey, we could make money ...". My favorite is "That's how they use the stuff I do! Wow!"
Information is presented with an idea, how it has been applied, some visual clarification, and then more meat on the concepts. Chapters have questions at the end and more notes at the end of the book. "Bravo!" for the end notes, moving them elsewhere kept the chapters powerfully concise and still provide more detail where you need it. Pages of bibliography help as well.
The author doesn't preach the new order but simply explains advantages of Web 2.0. Her explinations provide new ways to look at an established business, guidance for entrepreneurial spirits just building their next big thing, and even business collateral ideas that would support non-web brick and mortars.
My perceptions have been expanded and I'm seeing strong business advantage from applied technicals. If you're a geek who hasn't felt your work contributes to a larger whole, give this a read! You'll see the past clearer and glimpse the short-term future.
- I'm not sure what I originally expected from this book, but I believe it was a valuable read. It is more like a text book than a touchy-feelie hug fest of the wonders of Web 2.0 - great, concrete ideas, but at times a little dry. Once I adjusted to the format, I found the overview to be thorough and well organized - telling a compelling story in a somewhat academic way - chock full of case studies accompanied by charts, tables, flow charts and figures that supplement the key points.
Overall, very useful and I believe the systematic approach has a lot of value, but it is definitely better suited for left-brain readers.
Marc Crudele
innerEcho - Atlanta, GA
- A friend of mine really likes this book, so I got it. And, it's probably to most useful summary of the new ecommerce and Web 2.0 at work. More than other descriptive works, this has substance. Well anchored in with successful examples.
- Amy Shuen has done a wonderful job with this book. Its ability to blend the business, marketing and technology conversation around Web 2.0 philosophies into a cohesive discussion makes this book worth the read. While I was slightly disappointed that the book didn't spend much time on internal uses for these strategies (which could easily have been added as a seventh chapter), the focus on the value to changing a business was well researched and valuable.
In particular, spending time understanding the various value propositions around Web 2.0 was excellent. From innovation models, to monetization strategies and harnessing the long tail of a potential market, the revenue potential is clearly explored.
One comment that I read from another reader (http://infosysblogs.com/web2/2008/09/thumbs_down_for_web_20_a_strat.html) was that he felt that the language was contrived and not engaging enough. I couldn't disagree more. The book was articulate and readable, especially given the fact that the book covered so many of the dry topics that are often ignored for the sake of hype generating content.
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Posted in Industries and Professions (Tuesday, December 2, 2008)
Written by Quint Studer. By Wiley.
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5 comments about Results That Last: Hardwiring Behaviors That Will Take Your Company to the Top.
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In the Introduction to this book, Quint Studer makes the following assertion: "Standardize the right leadership practices and you will find that organizational performance improves across the board...and stays improved." More specifically, results-driven leadership at all levels and in all areas will achieve and then sustain outstanding performance throughout the given enterprise. That's obvious. Here's the challenge: To get the right goals, the right behavior, and the right processes in proper alignment. More specifically:
1. Have stretch goals that everyone understands and supports, then measure performance in terms of progress toward achievement of those goals. At all times, know what is most important and focus on doing it.
2. View behavior from two separate but related perspectives: values and productivity. At companies such as GE and Southwest Airlines, for example, there is zero tolerance of inappropriate behavior no matter how productive the given offender may be. At the same time, people are expected to produce results (Jack Welch calls it "hitting the numbers") or seek career opportunities elsewhere.
Note: I agree with Studer that the behavior of all supervisors must be "standardized," at least to the extent that they have impeccable character, know their stuff, provide constructive criticism whenever it is needed, earn and remain worthy of trust, and do everything humanly possible and appropriate in the best interests of those entrusted to their care. That said, allowances must be made for differences in personality, lifestyle decisions, avocations, etc.
3. Make all processes as simple as possible...but no simpler. Many processes streets that remain essentially unchanged (except for occasional repairs) even as residents of homes, merchants and their customers, and students enrolled in schools come and go. This is especially true of the process by which an organization such as the U.S. Marines develops leadership. "Many are called, a few are chosen" and then all receive rigorous formal training with hands-on daily supervision as they are absorbed by the culture and identify with its values, meanwhile strengthening individual skills, enriching personal knowledge, and - over time - adding increasing value to the organization.
According to Studer, "Evidence-based leadership (EBL) enables us to create results that last. What is EBL? It's a strategy centered on using the current `best practices' in leadership - practices that are proven to redsult in the best possible outcomes. The `evidence,' in this context, is the reams of data collected from study after study that aim to determine what people really want and need from their leaders. When leaders apply these tried-and-true tactics to every corner of our organizations, we achieve consistent excellence. Our organization's success is no longer dependent on individuals. It's hardwired. No matter who leaves, the excellence remains."
Throughout his narrative, Studer explains how EBL enables those who practice it to identify and deal with "High, Middle, and Low Performers," recognize the five critical elements employees want from managers, "manage up" to improve the performance of those they supervise, measure performance fairly and consistently, improve employee selection and retention, "harvest" intellectual capital, take a customer-centric approach, and build a culture around service, and serve as a role model for effective communication, cooperation, and collaboration.
Well-done!
Those who share my regard for this book are urged to check out Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths And Total Nonsense: Profiting From Evidence-Based Management co-authored by Jeffrey Pfeffer and Robert Sutton as well as their earlier book, The Knowing-Doing Gap: How Smart Companies Turn Knowledge into Action as well as Edward Lawler's Talent: Making People Your Competitive Advantage, Robert Mittelstaedt's Will Your Next Mistake Be Fatal?: Avoiding the Chain of Mistakes Which Can Destroy Your Company, Michael Levine's Broken Windows, Broken Business: How the Smallest Remedies Reap the Biggest Rewards, George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker's Peripheral Vision: Detecting the Weak Signals That Will Make or Break Your Company, and Sydney Finkelstein's Why Smart Executives Fail and What You Can Learn from Their Mistakes.
- Best part of entire book is on rounding. We are instituting it with our agency to complement customer service training. It can be hard to get people to think beyond the immediate customer service problem and a response that will get rid of the customer. Rounding looks at the systemic issues and implements a plan to ensure they get done.
- Having been through various Studer trainings and earning my fire starter pin in the leadership team of a hospital many years ago, I was so excited to see Quint publishing these ideas for the rest of the working world.
I'm now in a different corporate environment and am sharing "Results That Last" with my leadership teams here. The translation into the traditional American corporate environment simply works. The concepts are not only well written and outlined, but also the supplemental figures and diagrams really help to illustrate the tools that make hardwiring behaviors work.
The book is easy to read and get through either as a refresher (for myself) and as a first time read (as it has been for colleagues).
- Organizations spend millions of dollars to create perfect logos. They hire expensive firms to design their letterheads, product literature and other collateral materials. Everything must meet exacting specifications. Some even develop their own special corporate colors. But when it comes to leadership and management, many organizations adopt a remarkably casual, even lackadaisical, approach. If there are 900 managers in an organization, it may house 900 different managerial and leadership styles. Management expert Quint Studer can help you standardize your organization's leadership approach. Often, otherwise tightly buttoned-down corporate organizations standardize everything that they can - except their own leadership methods. getAbstract reports that this book will show you how to accomplish this important objective.
- Quint Studer's Result To Last is a great book especially for those healthcare organizations who need to improve quality, operations, finance, service through great leadership. Quint Studer emphasizes that evidence-based leadership is the key to achieving lasting results. This book is highly recommended for administrative and management staff to read and get the useful tools and concept to improve leadership of an organization.
I gave this book to my supervisors as part of our leadership development and they like it. We have implemented many tools such as scorecard, key words at key times, and recognizing and rewarding employee and has improved the quality in our operations and morale as a whole. Another Great book from Quint Studer.
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