Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Robert J. Shiller. By Princeton University Press.
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5 comments about The Subprime Solution: How Today's Global Financial Crisis Happened, and What to Do about It.
- For Prof. R.J. Shiller, the root of the subprime mortgage crisis in the US is a myth, the belief that real estate prices must strongly trend upward for demographic reasons.
He proves that the price of real estate, to the contrary, is trending lower. What went up are the quality and the dimension of the average individual houses. But what about `land'? Didn't Mark Twain recommend strongly: `Go for land. They've stopped producing it.'? R.J. Shiller remarks cleverly that only 2,6 % of US land is used for urbanization.
Another factor of the bubble was psychological: the human herd instinct. There was a social contagion of boom thinking.
A third, more specific, factor was the deliberate governmental policy to promote home-ownership as much as possible. This should be good for the Party.
When the real estate bubble burst, it disrupted immediately the credit markets. Aggressive mortgage lenders never worried about repayment risks. They repackaged the mortgages, got top ratings from the rating agencies and sold their packages to third parties all over the world.
But even more importantly, the crisis damaged the `social fabric', the way of life of millions of families and also human relationships (through aggressive creditors). It created an atmosphere of distrust, of hoarding, with runs on banks; in one word, it gave rise to a psychological environment that could lead to a severe and long depression, which would hurt all citizens. Therefore, the subprime crisis must be solved.
Prof. R.J. Shiller makes a distinction between the short term and the long term solution.
In the short term, there should be a massive bail-out in order to prevent an escalation of the crisis and of the economic downturn.
In the long term, the US government should create a basic social contract and protect every citizen against major misfortune. It should impose financial democracy through standardized full disclosure documents so that everybody should get better information about all the risks involved. Without affecting individual privacy, indicators should be created about the real value of real estate. Those should lead to a more efficient pricing of houses and to a stabilization of the market. Prof. R.J. Shiller did not only recommend these policies, but created an indicator himself.
With an open and clear-sighted mind, Prof. Shiller wrote a small, but essential, book about a dramatic worldwide crisis, without losing the `human touch'. It is an essential read for all those interested in the future of mankind.
- Trusting any Santa Claus of high finance in the midst of such massive failures of a bubble-prone financial system seems suicidal.
Shiller ends on a characteristic utopian-ideologue note: "Imagine our society equipped with a well-established information infrastructure that reached out to all its members, derivative markets for both owner-occupied and commercial real estate, well developed retail products, like continuous-workout mortgages, home equity insurance, and livelihood insurance, that facilitate management for individuals; and default options that naturally lead people to use risk-management devices intelligently.
"Our society could look forward to nothing less than more stable markets and, in turn, a more rational economy. We would eventually find ourselves forgetting that the kind of massive financial instability infecting our everyday lives is even a potential problem. Modern finance, applied democratically, can relegate these problems to history just as modern medicine, applied widely, has left us forgetting that epidemics of yellow fever and diphtheria ever raged among us."
I say, just stick with reading the ever-more shocking revelations of a good newspaper. Common sense answers applied with determination is the crying need. But such an approach doesn't follow the play book of new economy thinking and ideology that has got us into so much trouble for over a decade. Shiller still swims with that current, follows that herd. In the face of the real facts unraveling day over day, Shiller comes across as snake oil, no matter how good-hearted and liberal-minded.
Shiller's ideas appear innovative and gutsy, but he seems to have drank the cool-aide of high finance down to its dregs. His answers for our problems go deeper into that jungle with greater and greater trust demanded. Dr. Shiller, clean out the messy stables of your herd first--as Hercules had to do to prove himself--then your ideas may have relevance. As it is, you clearly are not facing up to the major challenges of your field--real-world failings that need to be addressed, hence your book functions more as a distracting red herring.
- This book is light on new data(a couple of graphs) and heavy on theoretical solutions,many only peripherally related to the present crisis. There is no discussion of resource depletion. The idea of insuring home equity and life income underestimate the cost of administration and fraud. It is a quick easy read,a few interesting ideas such as teaching kids to think in inflation units.
- Shiller blames the subprime crisis on the irrational exuberance that drove the 1990s stock bubble and the 2000-2007 housing bubble. Restoring confidence will require bailouts targeted at low-income victims of subprime deals. Longer-term solutions will require inhibiting the formation of bubbles and limit risk - better financial information, simplified legal contracts and regulations, home-equity insurance, income-linked home loans, and new measures to protect consumers against hidden inflationary effects.
Mortgage originators, planning to sell off the mortgages to securitizers, stopped worrying about repayment risk, and sometimes enticed the naive, with poor credit histories, to borrow in the subprime market. High home prices generated a glut on the market and prices declined at an accelerating rate. Meanwhile, mortgage rates began to reset after initial "teaser" periods ended, and defaults surged.
The lowest price homes have shown the greatest price increases (and subsequent falls), probably due to their linkage to subprime loans. Ratings agencies were not about to cut ratings on securitized mortgage products based on theories that the increases could not continue, that prices might fall.
There's some good material in the "The Subprime Solution" - however, most of the pages are taken up in an obvious "explanation" of why everyone jumped on the bubble bandwagon.
- This book has a depressing view of our current economic crisis. A good read for anyone that is too cheerful.
The parallel he makes between the trust lost by promising everyone could own a home to the repartiation payments after WW I is a bit of a stretch.
Good book though.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by John C. Bogle. By Wiley.
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5 comments about The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns (Little Books. Big Profits).
- The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns (Little Books. Big Profits)I thought this book was very clearly written, and its advise quite compelling. It hammers home the long-term advantages of investing in index funds. Of course, the author sells them for Vanguard, but none-the-less, his advise makes sense. He points out how difficult it is to select a mutual fund which consitently beats the market average over a long time period. According to the book, the odds are stacked heavily against it. So I think his point is for me to let go of my ego, and admit how extraordinarily difficult it is to beat the averages, and just invest in index funds and let it ride. Piled with fact after fact, lots of statistics, and bare logic, the book makes its case superbly. I recoommend it to all who own or plan to own stocks or bonds.
- I love this book. Gave it to my nephew who was content to lose money for 20 years and get into sector funds to make his riches later.
- As others have mentioned, this book could be distilled down to "The only way to succeed at long term investing is to buy low-fee mutual funds that track the whole stock market". The entire rest of the book is the justification, and it's pretty hard to argue with any of it. Sure, you can beat the market sometimes, but it can't last.
As a beginning investor, I found the book informative - it helps you think about stocks and the market in ways that aren't immediately obvious to the uninformed.
- An excellent book on investing. Straightforward form people whom know what they are talking about. And quoting from other good references as well.
- So as not to leave anyone in suspense, according to the author the "only way to guarantee your fair share of stock market returns" as it says in the title of the book is to invest in index funds that mirror the broad market, such as an S&P 500 fund. Plain and simple.
Basically, Mr. Bogle lays out his argument for that viewpoint in several relatively short, easy-to-understand chapters that each focus on a separate aspect as to why index funds are the vehicle of choice for the long term investor. He provides the reader with supporting historical data, information about fees, income tax effects, quotes from other respected investors, etc., to build a strong case for index funds. The effect of what you may think are slight differences in fund fees and charges from one fund to another over time are quite shocking.
Overall, this is a well-written, organized, intelligent book that is also thankfully concise, and I thought it was well worth reading. I can see there is a lot of wisdom for sticking with index funds for the long run.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Jim Collins. By HarperCollins.
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5 comments about Good to Great and the Social Sectors: A Monograph to Accompany Good to Great.
- As a social entrepreneur and current business school student, I was fascinated by Collins' work in Good To Great, and I am thrilled that he has provided this monograph to answer the questions that many of us the social sector have been wrestling with since his Good To Great publication was first released.
Unlike most publications about this sector, Collins directly provides interesting insight into accountability measures for social sector organizations, as well as the characteristics and the qualities that successful managers exhibit in the social sector. As usual, his Good To Great technique of analysis has yielded him not only important take-aways for organizational management, but an intuitive sense of how organizations, both for-profit and non-profit, can truly achieve sustainability.
I strongly recommend this book for anyone who enjoyed Good To Great and has pondered its applications to the social sector. I would also highly recommend the How-to guide: Business Planning for Enduring Social Impact: A Social-Entrepreneurial Approach to Solving Social Problems by Andrew Wolk and Kelley Kreitz for anyone looking for a very clear and direct approach to putting some of Collins' idea and suggestions to practice.
- The book seemed to have info I need but I had trouble trying to figure out out to implement the ideas of the book into my situation.
- We used the Monograph as a precursor to our strategic planning process. It was very helpful in generating a shared vocabulary for the planning process. As a companion for non-profits to the book "Good to Great," it is easy to grasp and answers many questions left open in the book. It is even a good stand-alone read for non-profit leaders, although reading both books is the best way to get the most out of the concepts. As a non-profit theater, this book is a great tool to lead us in journey towards excellence.
- Good to Great and the Social Sector is Jim Collins' retort to people who ask how he can apply the concepts in his book to public sector organizations. Running a non profit myself, I find this a compelling read. Essentially he interviewed 100 social sector leaders and tried to differentiate the practices that induce success there that may not do the same in the corporate sector. Please realize that it is very, very short, perhaps 5% of the length of Good to Great.
Another book that was recommended to me that we're now using at my organization with great success is The Emotional Intelligence Quick Book. It has brought about phenomenal changes in our management and our culture.
- While the fuller context that was presented in the book "Good to Great" is not present, "Good to Great and the Social Sectors: A Monograph to Accompany Good to Great", provides a quick and thought-provoking read of critical "Good to Great" concepts. Although it does not provide quick fixes to challenges non-profits may be facing (especially in the context of the current economic disruption), it frames important questions a non-profit should consider.
The book acknowledges that non-profits cannot simply be looked upon as "businesses" and describes parallel conventions to the profit and loss measurement that defines success for profit-making ventures.
I have purchased multiple copies of this book for my fellow board members with whom I serve as well as for management of the various non-profits with whom I am involved.
I highly recommend this book -- it is a quick read -- one train or plane ride long.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Toni Turner. By Adams Media.
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5 comments about A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online (2nd edition).
- I don't have time to write a long review about a book, and I assume neither do you to read it. So I keep it simple and to the point:
I have read several books about day trading and this is one of the best by far. It explains in detail what to do and not to do when you attempt to trade stocks as a beginner. It will stop you from losing money and save you a lot of headaches. Make sure to read it twice!!
This book is an excellent guide to anyone new to this field, even if you don't know the technical terms. It is not boring either... I wish it had been longer..
Read it!!
- I've read Toni Turner's other books and she does a great job of taking you from the start of how to do it all.
- 4 bang 4 the buck buy this book first. 4 beginners or wanting 2 improve your profits trading this book will give u a complete picture of how successful traders think and the tools they use. Like watching over the shoulder of someone in action that is making money and how to set up your trading room. Wish I had read this book when it came out. Buy this book u won't regret it.
- This is a great book.!!! It tells you all the things you need to know.
I almost did'nt buy it becouse of the two or three bad reviews but Im glade I did. One of the bad reviews siad this book just says the same things that you can find in other books, well If you had three books on rebuilding a small block Chevy motor...They would say pretty much the same thing. and the title does say A "Beginners" Guid to day trading not an experianced trders giude. If you have traded before or never traded before but are looking to day trade this is a good book. It's alot of BANG for your Buck.!!!
- Based on all the reviews on this book, and being a fervent student for continuous learning. I'm making it my duty to further study the markets.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Milton Friedman. By University Of Chicago Press.
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5 comments about Capitalism and Freedom: Fortieth Anniversary Edition.
- Reading this book gave me a whole new perspective about life, economics and individual responsibility. It's a must for everyone, even if you are not a student of economics.
- I literally almost vomitted reading this book for class. This father of Neoliberalism, the murderer Pinochet's pal, has caused immense suffering and destruction in the world with his proven-to-fail free market capitalism. Thank goodness he's dead. Lets pray there won't be another one as evil as him around for a while.
- the title above says it all.
something missing in his considerations.
perhaps should include a chapter on human character and the greed that appears to run rampant in the higher levels of the economic ladder.
- excellent read and should be a must for all college freshmen also should read "free to choose" by milton and rose friedman
- A fantastic piece of literature. The concise nature of the book belies the depth of knowledge and purpose of Friedman's writings, but then that is what he intended. I find I take more out of the book each time I read it. A must for any serious economist and to any one willing to gain a clearer picture of the political economy and the forces at play.
Do yourself a big favour and read this and if are a socialist then be warned, the truth will hurt! (If Mises's work has not already done that)
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Victoria Boutenko. By Raw Family Publishing.
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5 comments about Green for Life.
- The principles Victoria discussed in her book were interesting, but I was disappointed to see that she rarely included any references to back up the claims. That's why I didn't rate this book with more stars.
However....it will have you hooked on green smoothies! There's no denying that leafy green vegetables are good for you, and this is an unbelievably easy and painless way to eat them. My husband and I bought a VitaMix (also highly recommended) eight months ago and I'm still drinking green smoothies on a regular basis. I also haven't been sick since, and I swear my skin is clearer because of the smoothies. I would wholeheartedly recommend trying a green smoothie for yourself--and this book is a nice introduction.
- This book was not entirely what I expected to read when I ordered it from Amazon; however, I still feel it was worth the time to read it! I was expecting more raw recipes, only to find that the focus is on incorporating more greens into one's diet. Knowing that, I wouldn't have purchased it... I eat a salad a day, that's plenty, right? Wrong!- according to Viktoria. I am happy to have stumbled across this book, as it provided me with a lot of useful information specifically on this much neglected 'food group' that I had not come across before. I've had other women in my office read it as well, all with good reviews. It is a super-fast read, accessible without being dumbed-down, and one I will pass around plenty I'm sure.
- I'm a huge fan of Victoria but I was a bit let down with this book. I haven't really found a book with a lot of good smoothie recipes and this is not it. It explains the philosophy behind them and you quickly learn as long as you have a green lettuce, any type of fruit(s) and a sweetener if need be plus any optional items such as protein or psyllium powder, its really all about experimenting. If you want the philosophy, buy the book. If not; spend you cash on ingredients and look up recipes online.
- If you want to eat more fruits and vegetables...especially vegetables/leafy greens then this is the book for you. Easy to read, straight forward and loving. You must want to change and once you begin you will be amazed at how much energy you get. Also there may be some detoxing Read and find out...as least be informed..I admit this is cutting edge material not everyone will be willing but that is all it takes is to be willing. The author is so loving and she did her homework so the data and research is there. Take a look.
- Really informative. Great research for raw foodists or not. Well written and easy to read. You will know why and how to eat more greens forever.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Roger Lowenstein. By Random House Trade Paperbacks.
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5 comments about When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management.
- An excellent read & indeed very relevant in today's' times when we see fiascos in the financial markets repeated almost every day. I expect another book from Roger Lowenstein soon on Bear Stearns, Lehman, Merrill Lynch & the state of financial markets (today). God Bless Wall Street & God Bless America! Hail Lowenstein!
- This is a fascinating book about the collapse of one of the largest and most sophisticated hedge funds of all time. The book gives great insight to the hedge fund world, as run by Nobel prize winners and other mathematical geniuses, without being technical. Anyone with a passing interest in the world of finance is likely to enjoy this book.
- This story about Long-Term Capital Management seems like a precursor to today's subprime mortgage fiasco that has come so close to collapsing the world financial markets. While much smaller in scope to the problems we are facing today, the LTC story demonstrates one sad truth : the big Wall Street players take on inordinate amount of risks and if they risk collapse, it is ultimately the taxpayer who has to bail them out.
- This book was a great read, well written, and hard to put down. Highly recommend.
- Scary. Although LTCM rose and fell some time ago, it could be TODAY. Goes into high level of detail on the more obscure things in the capital markets. While not a quick read, an interesting one.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Michael Watkins. By Harvard Business School Press.
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5 comments about The First 90 Days: Critical Success Strategies for New Leaders at All Levels.
- The First 90 Days by Michael Watkins is squarely aimed at the task of a manager coming in and dealing with a new team. Those first ninety days can really make or break a business relationship and it is well worth studying this information before you take on a new job.
Michael breaks down your task into these discreet steps: promote yourself, accelerate your learning, match your strategy to your situation, get early wins, negotiate success, achieve an alignment, build your team, create coalitions, keep your balance and expedite everyone. Each step gets its own discussion so you get a handle on how to succeed in each area.
New hires are often swamped with "learning things" - Michael helps you balance that learning with actually doing productive work. That way people feel energized by your being there and get a sense of your promise.
Even if you're moving up in the same organization or taking on new responsibilities a lot of these issues are still important. You want to maintain solid boundaries - otherwise you'll get angry and resentful at people taking advantage of you. You want to admit errors quickly so you're not thought of as rigid and undependable. You want to proactively deal with problems instead of avoiding them, manage your stress so you don't burn out, and have a support system to keep you going.
There are a few "real life" style examples in the book, but it primarily is laid out like a textbook to learn and study. While some might find this difficult to read, it is well worth treating a new job LIKE an important test you want to study for. You may not get a letter grade - but your job success is probably far more vital than any random chemistry exam ever was.
Yes, some of this might seem like "common sense" - but after all, many bosses fail. They just don't understand all the aspects of their job. It is well worth reading through this even if you know 8 out of 10 things listed. Getting a good handle on the remaining two might be the difference between success and failure.
- I purchased this book in concert with a promotion thinking it might be useful during my transition. While it was informative and on point, most of its lessons were obvious to any seasoned leader and frankly it was a very dry read.
If you are new to management or have not had much developmental time in improving your management skill this book will be valuable to you. Leadership ? I could recommend a number of better books for the first 90 days...
- This is a well written guide with a quite a few useful tips. It is well worth the purchase price.
- We utilize this book in one of our leadership programs.
I would advise that you purchase it anywhere...except Amazon.
We made two attempts ordering a sizeable quantity of the book - both orders went astray. The first arrived nearly a month after the promised ship date. The second order has yet to arrive, 5 weeks later.
Yes, credit was prompty issued, once requested. But, if your relying on a product to help your business, you'll want to look at another business partner.
- Michael Watkins' "The First 90 Days" is ostensibly about improving a transition into a new leadership role and accelerating the typical 6.2 month break-even point of giving more value to the organization than received. Each chapter focuses on one of ten key transition strategies.
"Promote Yourself" and "Secure Early Wins" are all about the short-term but important goal of quickly establishing credibility. In "Accelerate Your Learning", Watkins goes about convincing us there are special, institutional and culture things we need to learn.
In "Match Strategy to Situation", the author expounds on an earlier proposition that failure is never just about the flaws of a new leader, but rather the adaptability of that leader's skills to the particular business situation. Watkins introduces the STaRS business lifecycle model which will be a continuing reference point throughout the rest of the book. The STaRS concept is really very simple - match strategy, actions, reactions, etc. to the business situation of the company and department. That situation will determine the degrees to which a leader dials various levers of control. While it is a simple concept, many often miss it, and enter into new roles with preconceived notions and habits from their previous role(s).
The "Negotiate Success" chapter is about managing your boss. There is very good advice here, beginning with taking 100% responsibility for the relationship. All of the insight here is applicable post-transition for an ongoing, successful relationship with your superior.
"Achieve Alignment" discusses balancing strategy, structure, systems, skills and culture. "Build Your Team" offers wisdom on the right moves to make upon inheriting the new team, but much of the advice will be invaluable for managing them for the duration. The chapter contains a model for a decision making strategy within the team, noting different types of decisions call for different styles.
"Create Coalitions" counsels the manager to reach out beyond their reporting chain and build relationship capital before they need it. Every organization has its shadow structure of informal networks of influence and power. There is also good analysis on choice shaping, entanglement strategies and building momentum.
"Keep Your Balance" offers some final advice about balancing all the previous strategies and maintaining self-discipline both in your professional and personal life. Watkins then spends the last chapter or two advocating industry and organizational attention to the transition phase of leadership, but the value for the reader/manager is to consider how their new direct reports will manage their transition.
Most of the chapters contain a "common traps" section which I found really effective for identifying where I personally had wandered off the path of best practices. Sometimes defining what you should not do is more enlightening than the original advice of what you should do. Each chapter ends with an "acceleration checklist", which I first thought were summary questions typical of text books, but upon actually reading found they stimulate further thought. Most chapters also begin with a short case study, which while valuable for an introduction, could have been expounded upon and used more effectively.
Watkins' says this goal of the 90 day transition is to "build momentum by creating virtuous cycles that build credibility and avoiding getting caught in vicious cycles that damage credibility." But the advice and strategies put forth in his book go far beyond the initial entry into the role and are applicable to general, ongoing management and leadership. The main flaw of "The First 90 Days" is its dry, academic presentation. It's hard to get through and easy to get impatient and skim past some really good insight. Watkins may be a career professor, and may write like one as well, but his insight does reflect command over cultural and political nuances of leadership that one usually only discovers by living through it over a career.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Kenneth H. Blanchard and Spencer Johnson. By William Morrow.
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5 comments about The One Minute Manager.
- This book is perfect for the new leader that needs the basics, as well as the seasoned manager just looking to freshen up their skills. It is a must have in any learning library!
- The One Minute Manager is an oldie and a goodie. It's been a fun book to watch over the years as new generations of managers entering the workforce are exposed to it. I recently bought a copy for a new manager that reports to me, and bought the Amazon recommended title Squawk!: How to Stop Making Noise and Start Getting Results along with it.
It turns out Squawk! is a new book that's also for managers, and let's just say I read it while my subordinate was reading The One Minute Manager. I guess you can teach an old dog new tricks. Both are great books and they're short enough that I suggest following Amazon's recommendation and getting them together at a discount.
- The OMM presents a set of tools that a manager needs to use to do his or her job well. The book is short and sweet. It gets to the point without wasting time.
- I'm a human resources manager and use this book and CD to help first-time supervisors understand the power of managing people properly. Not an intimidating, theoretical book that they will never read, but a real world "how-to" manage people. It's a great first step as they make their foray into management. Plenty of time for the heavier stuff later in their careers.
- Kenneth Blanchard and Spencer Johnson birthed a monster writing style when they published THE ONE MINUTE MANAGER, "The Runaway #1 National Bestseller!" -- and that style is surrounding a hideously boring topic with clichés, adverbs, adjectives, redundancies, dull characters, and exclamation points. The book is then called a nonfiction fable. Hunh?
When this book came out in 1981 it used a new, perhaps fresh, approach to teaching management skills, but since then it has been copied and copied and copied ... when it should be put in a cage. It's time to stop dumbing down and start smartening up books for managers. Enough already!
Note: You'll only need 1 minute to get what's useful out of this book.
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Posted in General Economics (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Roger Fisher and William L. Ury. By Penguin (Non-Classics).
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5 comments about Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In.
- There are many books, articles and seminars on effective negotiation. "Getting To Yes" is an easy read that lends itself to practical application in any form of negotiation. For the price of this book there is no better value for learning effective negotiating skills.
- Required reading in most negotiation classes I am told by my professor at UNH. I think it's an excellent book, we use two, this and "Bargaining for Advantage" by Richard Shell. I personally like the shell book better as it's more methodical which my brain processes more easily. Having said that, this book is also very good.
- This book does a great job of helping the reader understand that rather than just focusing on getting the biggest piece of the pie, we should find ways to make the pie bigger.
- If you are uncomfortable with your current negotiation technique and strategy and seek to improve it, this book will offer you great help. It is comprehensive and easy to read with lots of great examples. On the other hand, if you are comfortable with your current negotiation ability this book will seem repetitive and obvious. The authors make it clear that career negotiators who have read the book agree that it teaches them what they already know, but the negotiators also admonish the authors for outlining clearly and in laymen's terms "The Method" as they refer to it, even as a refresher. Note that this is not a sales strategy book that will help you get your way by any means, it is a book advocating healthy, relationship friendly negotiation.
- Great seller. Provided me with necessary information: such as condition of book, and when i would recieve it.
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