5 comments about The Numerati.

1. Steve Baker has written a page-turner that illuminates a world invisible to all but a few who understand the depths to which the digital world is shaping every aspect of our society. The "Numerati" -- those mathematical wizards and computer engineers to whom I paid little notice 30 years ago when I was in college -- are now the entrepreneurs and visionaries whose expertise is at work deciphering everything we do and even think. The Numerati's complex search methods known to those who took calculus in high school as "algorithms" are used every day by public and private sector entities to intrepret the vast amounts of data we all voluntarily put in the public domain every time we use our phones, credit cards and go "on-line." The story Baker tells of how the "Numerati" have insinuated themselves into every aspect of our economic and national life is compelling and and at times frightening. Every cell and land-line phone call, on-line communication, credit card purchase and daily email we send is part of an exponentially growing data base that's harvested not just for benign social and economic research, but highly targeted consumer marketing, politcal persuasion and outreach, business management and oversight of employees, as well as for govermernmental scrutiny of potentially suspicious activity. Baker's groundbreaking book tells in layman terms how the "Numerati" mine our data to determine who we are and what we do with our lives. Every single action we take using every day technology adds to a vast data base of information that is ripe for interperation not remotely imaginable in the analog world -- the four-TV channel and dial-phone universe in which I grew up as a kid in the 1960's and 1970's. As one of the "Numerati" notes in this book, this vast data base of information we voluntarily give up about ourselves is going to expand inexorably. Nothing will stop this juggernaut of information and the growing technological capacity to mine it. The genie is out of the bottle. Drawing on his skills as a journalist covering technology for more than two decades for Business Week Magazine, Baker introduces us to a Brave New World with great possibilities as well as potential perils. This is a gripping read: The three chapters covering politics, terrorism and medicine alone are worth the price of the book. There is much that is good and exciting about this new world, as it is putting information to use for us that expands our choices and improves our quality of life. But at the same time, the Numerati have the power and capacity to manipulate and reinforce our behavior as well as peer into our private lives. While this technological wizardry may well identify dangerous activity and potential terrorist threats, it also may invade our privacy in fundamental ways. "The Numerati" captures the dawn of a new era in which information is not simply power, but possibly all-controlling and potentially at odds with the values of a democratic society. Baker's ability to describe the new "search" technology and the experts that harness it makes for a compelling read, but it leaves the reader with more questions than answers. Is this technology and its accelerating capacity to scrutinize our daily activities outpacing our ability to regulate this new world so that our democratic and constitutional values are protected? The challenge of this new era, not so subtly raised by this extraordinary book, is whether this new technological revolution is going to control us or whether we will control it. To invoke a well worn book cover cliché: Run don't walk, to buy this book" -- and pay with cash if you want to keep your purchase private -- so you can decide for yourself.



2. I would highly recommend reading Baker's book immediately before or after reading How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business by Douglas Hubbard. Baker would probably consider Hubbard one of the "numerati". Both authors talk about some of the specifics of the analysis methods (but moreso Hubbard) and both talk about the general trends and impacts (but moreso Baker).
   
   Like his table of contents (which is simply worker, shopper, voter, blogger, terrorist, patient, lover), Baker's book is sweeping if a bit terse in places. As a quant, I find Numerati an easy read with virtually no math but still enlightening even for the most quantitatively adept reader. There were several examples in Baker's book where I already knew of the mathod but had not heard of that application. He did some great research and covered a lot of topics in this giant and elaborate field of work.
   
   My main concern for many management-level readers of this book is that in some cases Baker gives a reader just enough information to think they can apply it to a similar problem they have, falling into the "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" trap. Again, this can be offset with a read of Hubbard's book. It might also have been helpful to talk about the rise of "crackpot rigour" in a world with lots of data and relatively few competent mathematical analysts (various "data mining" experts come to mind).
   
   In all, its one of my favorite reads of the year. I felt like someone was finally casting light on my own obscure field.



3. "The Numerati" features a number of interviews between Baker and various individuals leading research efforts into analyzing consumer data. Readers would easily be led into believing that a New Age is around the corner.
   
   I can testify from experience (health care, education, prisoners, construction) that it's not so simple. There are just too many side issues that complicate situations (Baker does point out some of them) and/or negate/limit the value of findings. In addition, in some areas there is active resistance to such findings - education is the most glaring example.
   
   Education priorities are now set according to making life easier and more profitable for educators, not improving pupil outcomes; educators are dead set against undermining their "gold mine." Similarly, physicians generally do not accept outcomes data - partly for good reasons (the data inputs are not as accurate as desirable), but mostly because they don't want light shown on their fiefdoms.
   
   Meanwhile, simpler methods exist - eg. focus groups. Further, I was disappointed the Baker did not cover the Internet's existing powerful ability to guide pricing decisions by randomly/decision-aided quoting of different prices.
   
   Bottom Line: "The Numerati" does provide an overview of current thinking in the areas of grocery shopping, possible crime and terrorist prevention, etc. However, NO information on the current value/usefulness of these techniques is provided - thus, potential practitioners receive little of value.



4. In this informative book we are introduced to a new breed of mathematicians, "the numerati", who are responsible for gathering loads of private information individuals provide when they use a credit card, donate to a cause, surf the Internet, or even make a phone call.
   
   The book's chapters include:
   
   1. Intro
   2. The Worker
   3. The Shopper
   4. The Voter
   5. The Blogger
   6. The Terrorist
   7. The Patient
   8. The Lover
   9. Conclusion
   
   This book is so so interesting. I especially enjoyed the chapters on Shoppers and Bloggers. One firm in New York analyzes data from web searches, and gathers some 20 billion behavioral clues on internet users each day. I also learned about an interesting Blog search engine, how political consultants target particular voters, and so much more. This non fiction book is highly recommended.



5. Probably a book about interesting topics. I say "probably" beasuse I was unable to read it. Book is written in childishly infantile style that is appropriate for kindergarden kids. I made many attempts to read this book - from the beginning, form the end, from the middle. Sorry. Facts are hidden in jumble-mumble

5 comments about The Back of the Napkin: Solving Problems and Selling Ideas with Pictures.

1. I'm not good at drawing, but that doesn't stop me from occasionally using a whiteboard to visually communicate ideas. Communicating ideas isn't about creating a Picasso or a Rembrandt. Stick figures are welcome!
   
   The visual process contains four phases:
   
   * Look: Orient yourself and know which way is up, where you are, and identify.
   * See: Explore the five W's (who, what, when, where, and why) plus how many.
   * Imagine: No SQUIDS here (it's SQVID (simple, quality, vision, individual attributes, delta (change)).
   * Show: Telling the story with visuals.
   
   Roam takes you through complicated examples -- typical business problems. For example, a training department had hundreds of documents and couldn't see anything anymore. After analyzing all of their work, the team created a visual process to break it down. The story becomes clearer.
   
   I appreciate that Roam provides many examples. He also walks through several case studies of putting visual process to work. It may take some time to get the hang of the process and turning complicated ideas into visuals the audience can absorb with little thought.
   
   This isn't the kind of book where you can scan a few pages and suddenly come up with a way to explain that doo-dad. I think the book could stand an appendix or chapter on how to draw basic figures. I couldn't even copy some of the simple drawings. Also, the software information needs to include Smartdraw. Although, not as powerful as Visio, it's more affordable.
   
   Sales people can use the book to learn how to communicate their complicated products or services to prospects. Web design agencies can communicate their solutions for a Web site's architecture. Presenters can stop posting busy charts and use these drawings to quickly get a point across. The visual process comes in handy for many situations and I believe it's a good skill to have.
   
   I also learned something else while attempting my first drawings after reading the book. I tried to use Visio to create them, but it didn't have what I wanted and it took too much time. Two drawings took about 10 to 20 minutes.



2. I struggled with this book. It has some great ideas, but it reminds me of the last hour of the film version of The Return of the King or the entire King Kong by Peter Jackson. Where's the editor?
   
   The good and the bad:
   1. He gives concrete examples of how to use visual thinking and gives you tools to figure out what to do.
   2.It's a 300 pages book talking about visual thinking. Okay. I read it on the Kindle, so I don't know really how big the pictures are. But the point remains - it is overly long. A full third of the book is taken up by a case study on selling B2B software.
   3. Which, by the way, made no sense whatsoever. He starts by saying, "Let's map our customers." And then proceeds to put them all in a single company. It's quite possibly the worst case of profiling a customer base I've seen.
   
   All in all, it's a good book. But focus on the SKIMMING, not the reading.



3. This book was an interesting read for me not only because of the presentation concepts discussed, but also because The back of the napkin aims to provide a complete framework to solve business problems.
   
   I think the book did really well on the presentation front, the goal of a generic strategic problem solving kit is not really reached.
   
   Dan does a great job convincing us that we should use our drawing/visual thinking skills that most of us have been neglecting since we started formal education. On top of that he provides practical guidelines to get going
   
   Have the courage to use a more informal drawing style (away from the computer) to get to the essence of problems, focus not on form but on content
   
   Help us think about what type of drawings are best to be used in which situations (who, what, when, why, etc.) and to what audiences (the visionary CEO, the detailed operations manager)
   
   As a problem solving tool kit, he provides useful tools but falls short of providing a generic solution framework for all business problems (which impossible anyway I think).
   
   Dan takes the "S-type"/"sensing" approach to problem solving, spread out all data, put in on the walls, digest it all to see the bigger picture. A way of data processing very similar to the human brain sizing up a new environment. This is actually a useful and fresh approach compared to for example strategy firms such as McKinsey, that apply a very targeted data gathering approach focussed on key questions/issues that have been identified earlier.
   
   Another take away for me were diagrams that try to summarize all relationships in a problem. Plot a variable on the x axis, one on the y axis, start adding bubbles in different sizes and different colors to analyze 5-6 dimensions in one diagram. Useful for solving problems, less for communicating results to a "cold" audience that is confronted with the material for the first time.
   
   I do think however that the book does not provide a simple step-by-step guide to solve problems, you need guidance for this. Running problem solving brainstormings around a white board requires a strong moderator, and picking the right diagrams requires experience. Hiring Dan's firm would probably do the trick, but the novice will find it difficult to apply the techniques after having read the just the book.
   
   As a presentation tool, Dan's ideas are highly valuable in a smaller group setting, where everyone can gather around a white board while the presentor draws the story "live" in front of the audience without any help of PowerPoint. For the big audience however, this approach is high risk.



4. As a graphic designer by training, i was skeptical about the value this book would bring to my table. I picked it up on a whim in barnes and noble. I learned a lot of really useful tips though for quickly identifying and expressing problem and solution spaces. I would recommend this book to just about anyone.



5. What a surprising book this is! It's easy to read, very inspiring and just fun to try it yourself. If you visit his website, you get a pdf doc with the basics; simply great.

5 comments about Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything.

1. This book has gotten heated reviews from highly focused economic centric minds. Taken for what it is... a very entertaining series of articles with shocking facts and conclusions, the book makes you think about the motivators of human behavior.
   
   Themes: Cheating, Crime, Poverty, Incentives, Testing and finally Causality.
   
   The Chapter Titles grab you. The Chapters can be read in smaller increments.
   
   Very entertaining and enjoyable.
   
   I am pregnant and loved the section on choosing a child names.
   I liked the Head Start and Public School perspectives...
   
   Very neat... but approach it as a "fluffy" read, not a book to be cited in your PhD or Master thesis.



2. First of all I totally agree that stupid, promiscuous, nasty girls (henceforth referred to as SPNG) are liable to have criminal sons and more SPNG daughters (all things being genetic). So that making abortion available to such women would decrease crime in the long term (by preventing the birth of criminal boys). However, other studies show that Clever, Virtuous and Kind girls (henceforth referred to as CVKG are (and my own observations of my peers reinforces) are more likely to use contraceptives (although they have sex at a later age and with more thought) and upon the failure of contraceptives are most likely to have abortions. Whilst SPNGs are more likely to have the child, go on government welfare, and have a huge number of children to various Criminal men. So pro choice=fewer ambitious/CVKG type children being born. In conjunction with government welfare this means that many SPNG type mothers having criminal sons.
   
   To really reduce crime would not be pro choice-after all every human instinct is towards reproduction and if your life is empty because you are a stupid SPNG you will have more children than a highly ambitious CVKG.
   
   Proposal:
   
   Offer plasma televisions, DVD players etc with greater incentives per repeat abortion amongst SPNG type women. After enough abortions the cervix becomes incontinent and they will no longer be able to carry a baby to term thus decreasing the SPNG's ability to reproduce in the future.
   
   And when a CVKG seeks an abortions give them educational type benefits (or incentives that are of no value to a SPNG) to give the child up for adoption. Obviously we don't want the CVKG to keep the baby as this would harm her education and career, so adoption is the best possible solution. This increases the number CVKG type children being born and thus increases the number of intelligent people. Whilst decreasing crime by discouraging reproduction amongst SPNG.
   
   Sadly in the western world the characteristics that make someone a SPNG are the characteristic that make someone poor-who wants to work with someone or employ someone who is stupid, Promiscuous and Nasty?



3. This is an entertaining look at economics and gave valid views on how our systems works.



4. Author Steven Levitt is a recently graduated chef from the Culinary Institute of Elitist Capitalism, AKA The University of Chicago. Freakonomics is a kind of nouvelle cuisine version of economic modeling and game-theory as practiced by the disciples of Milty Friedman, but rather little of the book is spent on economic recipes per se, once the basic assertion has been made that "incentives' are the yeast that cause all human behavior to rise. Rather, Levitt puts everything from soup kitchens to swimming pools through the blender of statistics -- the very sort of statistical analysis used by the authors of The Bell Curve and discredited by Stephen Jay Gould in the book The Mismeasurement of Man, the very sort of statistics that can be used to prove that the older you get in Miami, the more likely you are to be Jewish.
   
   Levitt's basic dough: Start with John Stuart Mill and every other 19th C liberal social theorist. Knead thoroughly into a sticky paste. Add a handful of candied fruit in the form of the more radical 19th C postulators - Fourier, Henry George, Bellamy, and Karl Marx as understood before the Russian Revolution. Soften the dough with as much Thorstein Veblen as you can remember. Spice it with generous amounts of scorn for "them" - anthropologists, psychologists, and others who think that human behavior is shaped by more impulses than acquisition and that specific cultural 'memes' play a role. Half-bake the dough in a journalistic oven with the temperature set on SELL. Frost the loaf with an icing of Ayn Rand super-individualism. But don't expect the finished cake to be much different from cakes you've eaten before. There's nothing new in Freakonomics except the smirky style.
   
   Honestly, many readers might find this book stimulating, or over-stimulating, depending on their prior convictions. Go on! Read it! But read it with the same skepticism you'd apply to the gospel of any other religion than your own - Shinto, Islam, Swedenborgian, Leninist, Maoist. This is a book where the reader will be easily tricked into mistaking polemics for proof.



5. The books was well written, but I'm not really sure how much I've learned from it.

5 comments about The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash.

1. Couldn't have timed it better, Lehman Brothers sunk, Merill Lynch sold, AIG is on the brink of disaster - these are household names for many of us! Charles Morris offers a great primer on the current crisis, and the underlying causes. The book starts off well back, in the early 60's, and walks the reader through the economic downturns, recoveries, and their underlying causes - hinting at the fact that the current crisis is anything but a new occurrence.
   
   The author also spends a good amount of time on the financial instruments that have been reinvented many times over in the last decade: CDOs, SIVs, etc. Instead of hiding behind a curtain of mathematical complexity, Charles Morris offers great explanations and the rationale (if you can call it that) that led us to the current crisis.
   
   Last few chapters of the book are heavily infused with opinionated policy judgments, but other than that, this is certainly a very timely read.



2. If he knew this was coming when he wrote this book, where were our politicians...hoping it would happen after the November elections. Did anyone say its time for a revolution - run out the bastards, including both McCain and Obama? Although dense at times (I got tired of all the acronyms - CDOS, CLOS, blah), if you could concentrate long enough, you got a smiggen of what is going on - what it boils down to is too much lent on too little value, and then sold to stupid investment houses trying to make a quick book - unfortunately, we, you and me, got stuck holding the bag.



3. Buzz Aldrin once told me that the secret to success was to be in the right place at the right time. To that advice, I would add, that one must bring the right stuff to the table. The historian of this fluid and incisive analysis fulfills both criteria. Morris states that his intention is to tell the story of how we got there, "as briefy and crisply" as he can. He succeeds, brilliantly. The book seems to be the culminating work of a lifetime of preparation for solely this task - production of an unpretentious, eminently readable, accessible, closely argued and well-documented, to the chase, history of the cycles of financial markets over the past half century which have brought us to the point of possible national bankruptcy - a history of debt capitalism in its most perilous moment.
   While the mechanics of banking have never held much interest for me, I found this read gripping and highly informative - at a time when we all need to become informed about the mess engulfing us.



4. Around 6 months ago I read this book. Talk about timeliness!! it deserves many accolades, I will definately read anything else this author publishes!
   Excellent read, intelligent, concise and understandable for all.



5. I no sooner finished reading this book than we all started living it. What we are watching unfold on Wall Street and in Washingtion D.C. is exactly what was fortold, in excruciating detail.

5 comments about The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition).

1. Having being for some time a small investor with mixed results I was trying to learn more about the dynamics of the stock market. Benjamim Graham makes an excellent case for value investing which distinguishes true investors from speculators. It is as actual today (if not more then) as it was first written several decades ago. If you only read one book about stocks, be sure you pick this one. Highly recommended!



2. Whether you are an investor or speculator, this book provides more detailed information than any book I have read. To get the most from this book, one must be willing to devote time to absorb what the author is writing about. As it is a rather large book, it is easy to put aside; however if one is serious about the "market" the vital information is available in this book. I firmly believe if one will read and understand this information, your financial program will benefit. Sam Harris



3. Simple like that: if you are a layman investor and don't want to lose a dime, stop your investment actions right now and start reading this book immediately.
   
   I've started composing my stock portfolio a couple of months, before reading this book. At that time, I didn't know any of the Graham's wise lessons and took many decisions, some Graham-complying ones and some not. After six months, all bets on companies in a strong financial position, with a dividend payment history of more than 20 years, offering shares with a discount as consequence of the market fluctuation, and so on, proved to be right, even during crisis time.
   
   A must read book for anyone aspiring to be a fraction of what a true investor is.



4. The Intelligent Investor has helped me focus on the long term, to really internalize what sort of returns I should expect from my stock and bond investments and to temper my enthusiasm when the market gets exciting. Graham writes clearly, uses examples that are easily understood, and makes his points in an understated style. Though a bit dated -- Ben Graham met his greater reward more than thirty years ago and Jason Zweig focuses his commentary on the internet bubble and its aftermath -- the lessons set forth remain critical to value investing today. Just buy and read (and re-read) this book!



5. The Margin of Safety principle is probably the main thing to get from this book. The book gives many comparisons and instructive historical examples, but is a bit lacking in terms of actual advise on how to conduct an analysis, even though the book was supposedly aimed at the layman reader.
   
   I would recommend browsing this book and focus mainly on the two chapters already recommended by Warren Buffett, namely the chapter about stock market fluctuations and the chapter about margin of safety. Concerning the overall philosophy of long-term investing I prefer Phil Fisher's book: Common Stocks and Uncommon profits.
   
   
   In addition you will also need a proper book on valuation, although Graham does give a very simple valuation formula, I feel it is too focused on earnings (that is, the 'net income' which is often deceptive due to depreciation, new investments, etc.), and I personally prefer a proper Discounted Cash Flow model. Check my other reviews if I should one day post a review for a good book on valuation.

5 comments about The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression.

1. Amity Shlaes has written a timely and provocative book. As our presidential election nears, one can hear Republicans and Democrats alike arguing for more government action, more government-sponsored bailouts, more government intrusion into the market. As one commentator recently mentioned, it seems that we're on a course further toward the left ... no matter whom we elect. A big part of the left's mythology is predicated upon forced charity founded upon ever-increasing taxation in order to give a better life to "the forgotten man." Shlaes demonstrates that this forgotten man was originally not the poor person in need, but the person in the middle--the person whose work and tax dollars make it possible for the state to redistribute wealth. This author makes a convincing case for the law of unintended consequences when government starts tinkering with the economy. Reading the pages of this book, one begins to appreciate anew the wisdom of this nation's founders and the manner in which they insisted on strict limits to governmental power.
   
   This review may sound harsh coming from a Christian theologian. But I am not against charity or the offering of aid to one's neighbor. Those are major tenets of my fiath. But what I do oppose is the growing power of the state with its police power to compel citizens to be charitable. Shlaes gives us important information to understand the historical path by which we have come to find ourselves in this situation.



2. I will admit, the first few chapters are rough going if just for the shear number of characters you're being introduced to. The author has taken a strictly chronological approach to presenting her material. Because of that, characters come and go, some disappear for so many pages only to return and you're asking yourself "Where do I know that name?" Perhaps an introduction -- chronology not withstanding -- of the major players may have given this book an easier start. But persevere! I started reading between the names, reading more for the narrative and the point than for the name and date. (Note: there is a cliff-notes of characters at the end that you can reference along the way).
   
   But one simply cannot ignore the parallels of 1929-1932 and the current state of America today. There were long stretches of narrative on FDR where the name "Obama" could be substituted in with chilling presage. And considering the fact that this nation is so profoundly encumbered by the lingering, destructive policies of the New Deal, intelligent persons wouldn't make their vote this fall without considering the dire consequences of electing such radical progressives in knee-jerk reactions to the natural life cycle of our laissez-faire economy.



3. 
   I was interested in reading another history of the Great Depression, having only read a single book on the subject, John Kenneth Galbraith's, 'The Great Crash: 1929'. Amity Shlaes' book was highly recommended by many authoritative sources as well-suited to the non-expert in economics who is interested in understanding the conditions which lead to the Depression, those factors that perpetuated it and, more particularly, what steps, if any, might be taken to avoid a repetition of those sorrowful times.
   
   As the author of a general-interest book, Shlaes tries to hold the reader's attention by abundant use of anecdotes to illustrate what otherwise might appear as arcane economic concepts. This yields a somewhat encyclopaedic survey of the times, but also familiarizes the reader with many important historical personalities that are currently obscure, e.g. Rex Tugwell, Raymond Moley, Adolf Berle and Felix Frankfurter.
   
   As I understood the book, the major points were: 1. FDR's penchant for experimentation, 2. His susceptibility to influence from his cohort of advisors the so-called 'Brain Trust', a frequently mutating group of intellectuals, recruited on the basis of their appeal to Roosevelt's current fancy and, most importantly, 3. That New Deal policies needlessly prolonged the Depression, simultaneously creating 'identity' and 'interest' politics. A corollary of New Deal policies was the creation of indebted constituencies: this resulted from developing conditions tantamount to 'class warfare' and by putting more and more people on 'the dole'.
   
   Shlaes, however, is candid enough to point out FDR's shrewd abilities as a political thinker, citing, for example, his swift reversal of course by adoption of the formerly vilified scions of 'big business' when he realized the liklihood of an impending European war and the need for support from this quarter. Another interesting and politically adroit move was FDR's appointment of Joe Kennedy as first head of the Securities and Exchange Commission: who better to monitor fraudulent securities trading activity than an insider and master of the method?
   
   John Maynard Keynes and his theories, adapted to various New Deal programs by FDR, receives a few pointed rebukes. The most telling point in favor of Shlaes' perspective came in the form of an endorsement by the current head of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke. In November, 2002, at a ceremony honoring Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday, he was quoted as remarking, 'I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.' Let's hope he's right. But, What better vindication could Shlaes' arguments wish for?
   
   In summary, an interesting book, well worth reading.



4. This book has a great title and seems like it should be in-depth history. Unfortunately it's a barrage of names that seems to never complete a thought. I couldn't figure out what the author was getting at in most chapters. I wanted to read about cause and effect when it comes to the depression, the stock market, inflation and deflation, FDR's programs, trade, and common people's decisions and lives. Instead I got the attendance at a zillion meetings and the destinations of politicians trips.
   Here's a sample sentence: "On March 11 came news that Homer Cummings, Roosevelt's attorney general, was preparing a tax suit against Mellon, as well as against T.S. Lamont of J.P. Morgan and Thomas Sidlo, a law partner of the reformer Newton Baker of Cleveland." Try reading an entire book like that.
   So even though I gave it three stars (some people enjoy thick stuff like this) if you're an average inquisitive reader I'd say save your money.



5. The author does a great job expounding her theory that World War II ended the great depression and FDR's New Deal only helped prolong it. With plenty of examples of flamboyant socialist policies, overzealous prosecutions, and the unconstitutional court packing plan, she certainly makes a good case. This work, however, is pretty dense and can be hard to get through at times. This book would make an excellent source for an Economics class, but could be a little much for the average reader looking for an overview of the time period.

5 comments about The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy.

1. The impact of so-called free trade agreements have been a Pandora's Box for many in the United States who have had to suffer through off-shoring and trade imbalance. Smick argues persuasively that the influx of capital from globalization has fueled a level of growth and innovation that is unprecidented and that tampering with that with protectionism or poorly conceived legislation to control complex financial instruments, such as Mortgage Backed Securities, will result in a contraction in the global economy that could be catastrophic. Americans need to understand what has been created. Given that the Chinese are consciously accumulating vast reserves that they can use as an ocean-sized war-chest to exert vast global influence, we must find a way to safely level the playing field. I did not appreciate how difficult that might be until I read this book. It is very well written and terrifying!



2. This is an on point book about the current crisis that captures the reasons why there is and should be fear in the markets today. He tells us how the world that he knows from the inside was never what it appeared. While he is part of the hedge fund and central bankers club, his skepticism of their abilities remains high. He explains how he invested in China Cement early, and despite the vast growth of the country and industry, lost money (probably the only time). Even he will need to turn this book into a blog, as events overtake the markets. I wonder what he advised regarding the U.S. takeover of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG.



3. This extremely well-written book describes the current financial problems of globalization. It is easy to follow, easy to understand, and eliminates jargon. It's a great example of communication out of the Frank Lutz 'words that work' school.
   
   The problems of globalization, as the book described' are critical as a major period of entrepreneurial prosperity may be coming to an end. The availability of `oceans of money' started with a liberalized program in the USA during the early 1980's and later elsewhere with the rejuvenation of pension funds and other financial instruments. Capitalization/reserve requirements of banks were reduced, capital gains taxes were cut and a variety of new investment vehicles freed up large sources of capital. Smaller businesses were funded as the need to invest capital continued to grow and consequently, new wealth, new jobs and prosperity resulted. Moreover, many countries established sovereign funds that needed to be invested too. Rapid machine computation facilitated an explosion of capital transfer and global investment. Because the USA was perceived as the safest haven with the highest level of global transparency, it benefited from these changes. Moreover, the USA with labor market flexibility, higher education, a benign political environment, innovative strategies and quality of corporate management is considered the prime country in which global funds invest. However, the USA is not an island, but is interconnected and therefore subject to global economic events. But is it fading?
   
   The downside was securitization, a process of spreading out investment into multiple income streams to reduce risks. Securitization also involves arcane practices that are difficult for most policy makers, bankers and financial institutions to fully understand. In the process are no longer tied to the risk of the borrower, making capital easier to lend. Even riskier is the overlay of lack of transparency in many countries, including China. Eventually, underpriced and hidden risk will lead to major market corrections, as we have seen recently. Moreover, global forces and lower international trade barriers have diminished the role of government to influence their own economies.
   
   We now see increasing political risk in the USA that may kill the goose that laid the golden egg. The rising tendency of anti-global trade pacts, envy, class warfare, and populism, are placing the US at economic risk. American politicians, according to Smick, have only one option and that is to make the American economy the most attractive destination for global investment on a LONG-TERM basis.
   
   The wild card in all of this is China and I cannot detail the intricacies in Smick's chapter. China's approach includes widespread investment for strategic advantage, and a lack of transparency. Also it is involved in widespread commodity stockpiling. There, foreign investment is controlled. Chinese banking does not understand credit risks and are viewed instead as social and political instruments. In short, their economic system is extremely unstable and a bursting of its bubble will have worldwide cascading consequences
   
   The chapter on Japan's economic activities is well worth reading, as is the chapter on the sterling crisis of 1992.
   
   But perhaps the biggest change during the past 25 years is the diminishing role of central banks. As private entrepreneurs and government sovereign funds accumulate large amounts of cash, the role of central banks has diminished. With diminished governmental roles, people's vulnerabilities are increasing and one of the consequences is political pandering in the form of abetting class warfare,. We see it today. That is the underlying cause of the current backing-off by congressional democrats from free trade. It is a disaster in the making
   The closing chapter on "Surviving and prospering in this age of volatility" would require a long review in itself. It is not only worth reading, but needs to be reread to fully comprehend the economic mess we are in today and possible solutions out of that mess.
   
   Other reviewers have suggested both major presidential candidates should read this book. I can only concur. In fact, everyone needs to read this book to navigate the choppy waters ahead.



4. Excellent overview of the current (29 Sept 2008) macroevents and the how we got here. Fascinating for me as I remember the 70's gas lines and lived in DC in the 80's -- Mr. Smick, clearly walked the halls of power and understand how we got into this mess. Note - he seems to be quite balanced in that both Dem's and Republicans are at fault. He gives Bill Clinton a lot of credit for pushing thru NAFTA, Welfare reform and cutting Capital Gains by 30% thus allowing all of us to benefit from globalization.
   
   He also suggests that China is in a large bubble and what the impact is to us. I was there a few years ago and they and Dubai are clearly over the top (dot commish even) so it will likely get ugly for all of us when China blows.
   
   The only disappointment I have is the last chapter "Surviving and Prospering in This Age of Volatility". This is about how to govern better not what you can do in your personal investments. Interesting but not something I can act on, except perhaps voting.
   
   Best quote was from Marc Leland, former US Treasury official... "Globalization is like the two institutions we know as democracy and marriage. Both institutions at times can be problematic, but the alternatives are highly unattractive" Reminds me of Churchill's famous quote "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."



5. Easy and interesting read on the present financial crisis.
   Only drawback for me is that it contains much on China which is not very well researched.

5 comments about Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.

1. I borrowed my Mom's copy of Nudge but couldn't get into it. It was a little more academic than my payrate, so to speak. I got this book instead and I am glad I did. Arely takes a breezy fun approach to Behavior Econmoics that made it easy for me to digest. He offers no advice, just information about some of the hidden aspects of human behavior. Gread Read, Bottoms Up!!



2. 
   At first glance, the title of Dan Ariely's book seems to be an oxymoron. (It certainly catches one's attention.) Can irrational thought and/or behavior be predicted? Perhaps if it is repetitive? (The judgment and behavior of at least some people can be repetitive and thus predictable.) So I began to read his book with curiosity but also, yes, with some skepticism. Here are a few of my reactions. First, he learned a number of "lessons" from what he calls "experiments" in his life, each of which struck him as being counterintuitive. For example, everything is relative...even when "it shouldn't be"...or in fact isn't. That is, our mind can "play tricks" on us and thus we tend to see what we expect to see, hear what we expect to hear, etc. Images and sounds are relative to their context or frame-of-reference within which we place it. Or consider the frequently expressed observation, "one man's trash is another man's treasure" or one or more of self-serving juxtapositions such as "He's a tightwad whereas I'm frugal...she's narrow-minded whereas I'm a specialist...They're stubborn whereas I stick to my convictions." Ariely's other lessons also, directly or indirectly, involve illusions and delusions of one kind or another. They explain why we can't make ourselves do what we want to do, why we overvalue what we have and especially what we purchase, and "why a 50-cent aspirin can do what a penny aspirin can't."
   
   As I worked my way through the first few chapters, I was reminded of a joke I heard years ago. This fellow arrived just in time to tee off for another round of golf with three friends. They played every Saturday morning. "Hey, I've got great news! Just bought the best hearing aids that money can buy. They cost $8,000 each but they're worth every penny. It's a whole new life for me. Never been happier." "You spent $16,000 on two hearing aids? That seems expensive." "Nah, like I said, worth every penny." "What kind is it?".... The fellow glanced at his watch. "Exactly 7:30." To paraphrase Descartes: It is if I think it is.
   
   Also, Ariely shares what he learned about the differences between conventional economics and behavioral economics. Contrary to "the far-reaching conclusions" that generations of economists have developed "about everything from taxation and health-care policies to the pricing of goods and services," asserts that human beings are far less rational than standard economic theory assumes. "Moreover, these irrational behaviors of ours are neither random nor senseless. They are systematic, and since we repeat them again and again, they are predictable." (Hence this book's title.) Ariely makes a convincing, at times humorous but nonetheless rational argument to support modification of standard economics, "to move it away from naive psychology (which often fails the tests of reason, introspection, and most important - empirical scrutiny)." He collaborated with a number of colleagues when conducting various experiments that enabled them to "slow human behavior to a frame-by-frame narration of events, isolate individual forces, and examine those forces carefully and in detail." The results of the experiments illustrate general principles of human behavior (e.g. the decision-making process) within and beyond the workplace.
   
   Finally, I admire the extent to which Ariely succeeds in explaining the fundamentals of economics and social science for a reader such as I who knows essentially nothing about either. (Oh sure, I have some scraps of information and countless opinions but....) For example, in Chapter 9, Ariely describes an experiment that he conducted with two MIT professors to answer questions that include "How to explain violence? Why does it happen? Is it an outcome of history, or race, or politics - or is there something fundamentally irrational in us that encourages conflict, that causes us to look at the same event and, depending on our point of view, see it in totally different terms...We came up with a simple test - one in which we would not use religion, politics, or even sports as the indicator. We would use glasses of beer."(I do have extensive prior experience with beer!) The details of this experiment are best revealed within the narrative but I will indicate that the material in this chapter provides a number of revelations that help to explain "the hidden forces that shape our decisions."
   
   Congratulations to Dan Ariely on a brilliant achievement!



3. With this week's headlines about the dizzying volatility of the stock market, we've seen investors jump in and out of the game as they've responded to the most powerful emotions on Wall Street: fear and greed. Surprising? Not if you're Dan Ariely, behavioral economics guru at MIT. This may be the most entertaining econ book you'll ever read, as you laugh at other people's foibles and then wince inwardly as you recognize some of the described behaviors in your own life. It may make you swear off shopping, at least for a while.
   
   The basic premise of the book is that yes, people behave irrationally where money is concerned (thank you, Alan Greenspan!). But Ariely's contribution is to prove, through research so far-ranging it will make you pity his research subjects, a.k.a. Poor Sod Graduate Students, that people behave irrationally in quite predictable ways. We will, for example, almost always report more satisfaction with a product if we know it was expensive--even if that means we give high marks to an ineffective medical placebo. On the other hand, we will also go to ridiculous lengths to obtain any product that is "free," a fact that marketers realize and routinely exploit. That chapter reminded me of the Simpsons episode where Lisa asks Homer in disbelief if he is drinking blood. "Correction!" Homer responds. "Free blood." Bottom line? We'll do just about anything to get something for nothing.
   
   There were a couple of great anecdotes in the book. One was about a company that introduced one of the first bread machines in the world. The trouble was, nobody bought it; people who already routinely made bread at home didn't understand why they would need a machine to help them do it, and those who didn't already make bread weren't about to start. The company's marketing folks hired a consulting firm, which advised them to also introduce a very high-end bread machine to sell right alongside the other. It would have all the bells and whistles and be super-expensive, out of reach for most consumers. The point of this exercise was not to push the high-end model but the basic one, which started to sell like gangbusters. Apparently consumers love and need choice, and they always want to feel they're getting a deal. When faced with the option of the high-end machine, they both a) felt justified in buying the less tricked-out version and b) felt that they were part of a movement that was trendy, exciting, and upper-class. Interesting. It's similar to the phenomenon in fancy restaurants that might have a $40 entree. Very few people order it, but its presence on the menu sure makes them feel better about the $26 entree they actually choose.
   
   Another fascinating revelation is that the presence of an honor standard or system really does work. Ariely find that people were less likely to steal or cheat when reminded of the Ten Commandments, for example, even when they couldn't remember what all the commandments were. Just being reminded of some sort of honor benchmark (which could be anything, not just something religious) helps to prevent cheating. Also, people are less likely to steal when the results of their thievery are direct. In an informal experiment, when Ariely put Cokes in his refrigerator at work, they disappeared readily. When he put actual cash in the fridge, no one touched it. As he points out, stealing food and beverages is out of someone else's pocket, as if they had stolen cash, but most people stop short of stealing actual money. This is why white-collar criminals try to justify their behavior as victimless crime.
   
   It's not a perfect book, and some of the research is too anecdotal to convince Ariely's fellow economists, but for the general reader it's fantastic--well-written, story-driven, and even funny. High marks.
   
   [This review is also posted at The Review Revolution: janariess.typepad.com]



4. Predictably Irrational is one of several popular books about the way people really make decisions and judgments. This growing sub-genre includes Nudge, Sway and Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me).
   
   Ariely lucidly explains the findings of various experiments about decision making. It's easy to find applications in marketing: offering options that serve as anchor points and recognizing the power of "free." These findings are useful but I would like to see more discussion of the implications for everyday life.
   
   For example, most of us cannot predict how we will behave when we're swept up by strong emotions. Yet every day judgments are made by jurors in courtrooms based on, "Well, if I were in that situation..."
   
   Ariely points out the futility of taking too long to make certain decisions. One friend kept dithering over the choice of a digital camera, only to forego months of memories captured on film.
   
   Similarly, he feels he took too long to evaluate a job offer from Stanford. But for major life decisions, a lengthy process can be rational, even if you sacrifice current productivity. You have a greater likelihood of identifying the fact or factor that will be the ultimate deal-breaker.
   
   Ariely created an experiment to demonstrate that keeping options open comes with a high cost. So, he says, keeping one job or one residence for a long time can have a high payoff. Maybe. But often outsourcing options or industry shifts will kill a career. As a career consultant, I advise clients to focus on marketability, not security.
   
   Second, Ariely shows that money changes relationship dynamics. As he says, your family would be insulted if you offered to pay for Thanksgiving dinner.
   
   But while he advocates a greater role for social norms (p. 88), money norms often smooth difficult transactions. The New York Times magazine recently featured an article by an unmarried professional woman who needed a kidney. She wished she could just pay for what she wanted instead of being forced into difficult conversations that threatened her friendships.
   
   Many of us who move frequently have learned to pay packers and movers rather than seek help from well-meaning friends. After all, your helper might drop your new high-definition TV on the sidewalk (maybe breaking a toe in the process).
   
   The absence of money also affects relationships. When strangers email to ask how to resolve a challenging career question or fix a troubled website, I often wonder what goes through their minds. When friends ask, they risk the friendship.
   
   Third, Ariely suggests (p 121) that we apply lessons from auto maintenance to motivate individuals to undergo medical exams. This reasoning seems flawed.
   
   Tests won't prolong lives the way regular oil changes prolong the lives of car engines. After a diagnosis of disease, you should consider false positives. You embark on a journey of life-changing (and life-threatening) medical procedures, lifestyle changes, battles with insurance companies and endless waits to deal with rushed, indifferent or even rude medical staff. A better analogy would be to compare medical exams to auto diagnostics (which car owners rarely choose) or else compare teeth cleaning to oil changes.
   
   Insurance creates economic disincentives that muddy the waters. I know several people who had tests that came back negative -- no disease. A few months later, these folks developed symptoms that suggested a need to repeat the tests. In every case, the insurance company said, "No -- you get one a year." One person told me her doctor ruled out her disease based on a test she'd taken a few months earlier. So skipping a routine exam can be rational.
   
   Any benefits of early detection accrue to the individual, not society or insurance companies. Those who stay alive while making ongoing demands on the medical system will cost more than those who are rushed to the hospital in crisis and die shortly afterward.
   
   In any case, Ariely discusses how doctors resist research findings that point to the effectiveness of placebos. Just what is rational thinking, anyway?
   
   Overall, though, I thoroughly enjoyed this book. Ariely's writing entertains as well as informs. We all need to base our decisions and our lives on how human minds really work, not what "everybody" knows.



5. Blame Malcolm Gladwell - but after Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking social psychologists of the type he featured in that book have been coming out of the woodwork to publish in the pop science market in alarming numbers figuring, reasonably, enough that there's a bit of money to be made on the side. I'm guessing royalties from articles in the International Journal of Psychology would pale in comparison.
   
   One of the latest is Dan Ariely, whose unique selling point is a horrific accident he sustained as a student Israel which left him with burns to 70% of his body. His book does what it says on the tin, by way of explaining a number of social experiments that he and his colleagues have run in the last few years, loosely themed around the observation that we don't always act as sensibly as logic would dictate.
   
   Which is fine - as you would expect, some of the examples are eyebrow raising - but it really shouldn't be news and it certainly doesn't require Dan Ariely to tell us that our liberal western societies aren't as rational as we like to think (incontrovertible proof of that, not offered in Ariel's book, being the politicians we elect and the amount of attention and money we collectively devote to cosmetics, fashion, celebrity and professional sport), especially as deeper epistemological examination reveals the idea of "rationality" is incoherent anyway.
   
   But just as some anecdotes are enlightening, the implications of others are not nearly as plain or convincing as Ariel thinks they are, and some of his experiments struck me as being particularly glib, superficial and susceptible to plenty of alternative interpretations.
   
   And what Ariel's book lacks is any further theoretical drive: OK, we re predisposed to behave in silly or odious ways - but what's your point? In what underlying way are our irrational proclivities linked? What conclusions can we draw; what can we learn; what strategies can we adopt to counteract the harmful effects of our fecklessness?
   
   Ariely implies, but doesn't say, that some sort of regulation is required to save us. But given that it was our irrational proclivities by which we arrived at these politicians (and the political institutions through which they organise themselves) I'm not sure he leaves us any better off than when we started.
   
   Olly Buxton

5 comments about A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Third Edition (PMBOK Guides).

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   Impact Project Management,



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5 comments about Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books).

1. I read this book when I saw the writing on the wall back in 2006. Obviously Schiff was correct about the problems facing America but staring at problems does not create a workable solution.
   
   The fear began to hit in 2006 and that's when commodity stocks exponentially increased. Sorry people, but that boat has already sailed. Hoarding physical gold will not help your finances.
   
   2006/2007 was the worst financial years of my life because I worried and was afraid of the future and doing so led me to make some stupid decisions. Now, when I think about my financial goals and put them on paper I tend to pick good quality stocks/investments.
   
   In the midst of the crisis that Schiff and others predicted I just focus now on my own financial goals for this year and have seen a substantial increase in wealth in a new business. This is due to the fact I, on an individual basis, do what corporations have done all along. The result is nothing short of amazing.



2. Today I watched Peter's cogent and ever-consistent message concerning the economic crisis we're in (CNN 10-4). Contrast that with Stephen Leeb's naive view on how the bailout is a must need for us: "the house is already on fire." Well, I'd agree with Dr. Leeb but the last thing I'd be doing now is giving more power to the arsonist (the FED and the government). I've found that one of the best ways of determining the efficacy of any theory is to see how it's predictions align with reality. From that perspective, Schiff has been spot-on throughout (as exemplified in CRASH PROOF), all the while facing CONSTANT derision from a never-ending stream of idiots paraded in front of our tv screens as expert minds. Dr. Leeb's website reveals his own misunderstanding of our situation as recently as his 2008 market outlook: "Looking ahead, we can't help but be somewhat optimistic. The stock market itself is perhaps the best indicator of what's happening in the economy, and the message it's throwing off is fairly bullish.".
   
   Leeb typifies the same people who never saw the severity, much less the cause, of the issue..when it became too big to Pollyanna away, they blindly promote solutions that will invariably lead to even greater and more certain disaster.
   
   In the spirit of analogies, I liken our economic situation to a pot of chili simmering away on a stove. The privileged among us (the FED cowards and affiliated Wall Street beneficiaries) indulge until there's half the pot missing. They then add water--taken from OUR own well --(liquidity) to try and put back what they stole away with initially. These idiots would have us believe that adding a gallon of water to the remaining chili would somehow leave it spicier!
   
   HERE IS WISDOM--IF YOU WANT TO BEST PREPARE YOURSELF FOR THE CERTAIN & COMING PURGE OF OUR ECONOMY, CRASH PROOF IS A MUST READ!!
   
   In all, I'm SO THANKFUL that we have a voice in the wilderness like Peter Schiff! Peter, you and your father are TRUE AMERICAN PATRIOTS and this nation owes you a sincere debt of gratitude! Thanks so much & God Bless you/r family!



3. What does Peter Schiff, Ron Paul and Al Gore have in common? All three of them got ridiculed for speaking inconvenient truths.
   
   Al Gore was ridiculed when he spoke of Global Warming, but it didn't take long for the public to wise up and award him the Nobel Prize - while President Bush lead us towards environmental and economic melt down.
   
   During the 2008 political debates, Ron Paul spoke of reducing the size of government, restoring the dollar and retreating from needless wars abroad - and got laughed at by the other Republican candidates. Who got the nomination? John McCain - the person who admitted to be most clueless about the economy and most bullish in prosecuting the war in Iraq.
   
   This leaves us with Peter Schiff and this book. I've seen Peter Schiff on television talking about the real estate bubble, our out-of-control government spending, the debasement of the dollar etc. which he predicted would lead us to our financial Armageddon. A what did the talking heads on television do? They ridiculed him - and later turned around and backed Paulson's risky, futile bailout scheme ("it will be good for Main Street").
   
   So, if you want to know what is really going on with the economy, and what you can do to protect your investments from all the nonsense going on around you - buy this book.
   
   The only question I have is - is it too late?? Gold is already at record highs. Do we believe that gold prices will reach $3,000, $4,000 or $6,000 per ounce? If Peter is right - there will be more nastiness, finger pointing and further economic melt down. This could turn out like the wreck of the Titanic - your safe in your own financial lifeboat as you watch others moan and drown in the fog around you.
   
   I digress - read the book!



4. I bought this book when I was somewhat zealous of gold and the potential of an economic collapse. You can get a feel for the nature of this book from its title "how to profit" from the coming economic collapse. This is not a book about political or economic theory. It is an emotionally stirring book that directs you toward investing a) in gold and b) in foreign stocks. Schiff even advises borrowing at a fixed rate to invest in gold and foreign stocks to beat the rate difference, setting up a mini hedge fund with your personal equity.
   
   I already had bought some gold and was looking for a clearer picture. I only found the same radical rhetoric typical of "gold bugs" - that Gold has value as money and nobody knows about it and when the dollar busts Gold is going through the roof.
   
   The problem with this rhetoric is obvious in retrospect. Gold is not used as money anywhere in the world, nor is there any serious "back to gold" movement. Gold moves up when there is uncertainty and "flight to quality," but that is a reflection of "perception is reality" (ie. gold is also a form of illusory wealthy that can be stripped in an instant) and mass psychology. It is not because of any intrinsic value gold has as money.
   
   That is gold will go up, but won't skyrocket. It is a gamble and it is uncertain. It trades like a commodity and can act as a hedge against inflation. It is not, however, a bedrock inflation free currency as Schiff and other gold bugs would like to present it. Gold has no academic followers and fiat currency works fine when it is managed right. A return to gold money is as likely as a return of the U.S. to libertarianism and the constitution.
   
   Schiff's second play, is foreign stocks. According the Schiff the best and cheapest way to buy these is through his brokerage firm. I don't know much about buying foreign stocks and Schiff didn't give much advice. Just give his brokerage firm a call. Schiff barely acknowledges that we live in a global economy so much so that a failure in the U.S. will lead to a failure overseas regardless of what sort of business you choose.
   
   
   The U.S. dollar holds up the entire world economy, if it fails then everything fails.
   
   The world is ending so you should buy gold and foreign stocks.
   
   The substance of this book is nothing more than a shill for Schiff's company (the intro was nicely written though).
   
   
   I have to add that I met Schiff personally (when I was more zealous of libertarianism) and did not like him. He did not come near my expectations, just like Ron Paul. Libertarianism has no soul. That is my opinion.
   
   If the world is really ending give up all your money and follow Jesus Christ.
   
   The pessimism you find in Schiff's books is really found in your own soul and no amount of money will save you.
   
   For what does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?
   
   Acts 17:30-31, "The times of ignorance God overlooked, but now He commands all people everywhere to repent, because He has fixed a day on which He will judge the world in righteousness by a man whom He has appointed; and of this He has given assurance to all by raising Him from the dead."



5. This is an excellent book. It is very easy to understand and explains what is happening with the economy and how to protect your money. I believe it is a necessity in these troubled times.
   
   Shera RAel