Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Gene Smiley. By Ivan R. Dee, Publisher.
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5 comments about Rethinking the Great Depression (American Ways Series).
- Based on new theories, Smiley has re-examined and re-assessed the forces that led to and prolonged the Great Depression. In clear non-technical prose, he shows what happened and why.
This short book (163 pages plus sources and index) is divided into five chapters. Chapter 1 gives a brief overview of how the worldwide depression began and how it created a domino effect throughout Europe and the U.S. Nothing new here-- in fact, this is basic stuff any high schooler should know. Chapter 2 is a more detailed examination of the economic crisis and the forces which led to it. Smiley explains the situation in basic terms that anyone can understand, allowing us to see the tragedy unfolding step by step. Chapters 3 and 4 show how President Roosevelt (who had little knowledge or experience of economics) attempted to pull the country out of this deep economic slump. Though some programs were successful, some were not, and only serve to create a depression within a depression in the mid-30s. Chapter 5 examines the legacy of the governmental response, and how economic policies initiated during this period has affected this country for decades afterward, and how certain government programs still exist long after their usefulness has passed. An examination of post-war analysis shows how Keynesian economic theory and government studies have misinterpreted the factors which brought this country back to recovery. He also examines the question of whether such an event can happen again, concluding that-- based on subsequent economic downturns-- it probably won't, though it can happen again should future leaders ignore the warning signs and lessons of the past. A fascinating and rewarding book, even for those who have little or no knowledge of economics.
- Smiley has done a fantastic job with this book. It is well organized and very easy to read. He makes a statement and then follows up with the data and information necessary to support that statement. The second chapter on the cause of the great depression is my favorite and after finishing the book I went through that chapter again to really drill the information in. This book should be required reading for all college students. I normally give books away after reading them but I won't be giving this one away.
- This is a brief and relatively easy to read monetarist review of 'the great depression'. It is unclear to what the title calls 'rethinking' might refer. My guess is that the author is rethinking Keynes, but it might be FDR. Since the difference between Keynes and monetarists is subtle to all but Keynesians and monetarists, I wouldn't recommend this as a introduction to the subject, nor as a survey.
The text presents a matter of fact narrative, starting in 1929 and ending with the war efforts of 1940. The author find the source of economic contractions (recessions and depressions) in monetary policy established on a country by country basis. These contractions were caused by a shrinking money supply which could be correlated to effort to maintain a fixed relationship between gold and the national currency. Unaware of the relationship between money supply and economic goals (full employment, growth, etc), both Hoover and FDR made the necessary economic correction prolonged and painful. According to the author, the misguided new deal programs started by FDR have taken on a life of their own. The problems posed by 'New Deal' government programs consumes most of the concluding remarks. To end the book, Smiley writes "What failed in the 1930s were governments, in their eagerness to direct activity to achieve political ends... Attempts to stop international financial markets from working through the gold standard brough on the depression. Government efforts to combat the depression ... made the depression much longer and more severe in the United States. Governemnt attempts to reshape American society ... helped create a depression with the depression.'
Though one might think this come across as a polemic against FDR and what the author calls 'socialism', the author takes pains to show that everyone, including all the economists, misunderstood the 'depression'. Despite his confident narrative, the author doesn't exclude himself in this assessment. In a telling comment near the end of the book, Smiley states 'Still, our continued inability to develop econometric models that can accurately predict contractions means that we will not be free of them.' In other words, argues that no one knows what caused the depression. All he can do is point out the errors of various theories.
- This book is simple, clear and accurate. I've turned to it over and over again and can't recommend it too highly. Smiley is especially good when he gets to the second half of the 1930s. I have one copy at the office, one copy at home and carry one around in my backpack when there's room. Also great: Jim Powell's "FDR's Folly," "The Great Depression" by Thomas E Hall and J David Ferguson, Allan Meltzer, and of course Friedman and Schwartz. Superb but hard to get: Lester V Chandler.
- Considering the current economic environment, this book should be read by anyone who wants to understand the differences between what really happened during a very, very difficult time in history vs. the odious comparisons some have made to it in an attempt to describe our present crisis. I found this book by reading Amity Schlaes very good book, "The Forgotten Man." Her book drew some very interesting contrasts to Conrad Black's epic biography of FDR.
Although an academic, Smiley writes so clearly and picks his themes so wisely that, like Amity's telling book, I now understand the Depression to have been unnecessarily prolonged by government intrusion and the unwise application of high taxes and tariffs.
The book is brief enough and well researched so that I can hardly add more here other than to highly recommend it.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Bill McKibben. By Holt Paperbacks.
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5 comments about Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future.
- McKibbon's "Deep Economy" is a very readable history of industrialized economics coupled with a blueprint (albeit one that is unlikely to be followed) of how we might change our economic direction into one that is more sustainable and beneficial on an individual and communal level.
The idea that most clearly sticks out to me in this work is that of the "quality of life index," which could also aptly be called the "happiness index." That happiness within a society can and should be quantifiable, and that as a quantity, it should be factored into the overall values of this or that economic program is an interesting one, and also one that seems worth exploring in economics classes as well as sociology ones.
The focus on local business and production also serves as a rallying point for people on both ends of the political spectrum. While buying locally and organically appeals at surface immediately to the crunchiest of hippies, the boost of small business and the opportunities that McKibbin's plan offers swings the door open for the staunchest of the right-wing business class.
This book, if not an obvious plan for going forward, serves at least to give all of us an opportunity to explore a world where our fundamental economic groundwork is altered. It is hard to put down, and once you do, it's hard not to let it challenge your traditional understanding of what the economy is and should be.
- This book was required summer reading for me, but I would've read it even if it wasn't. It's a book with ideas people can believe in. It's not hard to understand and I enjoyed it very much. I've learned a lot and know that it will have an effect on what I think about, talk about and do with my every day life.
- With Deep Economy, Bill McKibben delivers a book that challenges conventional economic and political wisdom. Simply put, we can no longer pursue unlimited growth while producing more and more stuff. This point is heavily underscored as we approach the upper bounds of Earth's natural resources and come to terms with the damage caused by operating under the current prevailing wisdom for over a century.
McKibben points out that, while economic growth is beneficial up to a certain point, it fails to produce corresponding benefits when it passes that threshold. The increased wealth tends to accumulate in the pockets of those who are already wealthy, while the majority of people see little to no increase in income. The endless cycle of consumption tends to produce more inequality and insecurity, rather than prosperity and happiness.
Luckily, McKibben proposes a solution to the dilemma: we should shift our focus from growing economies to growing communities. The pursuit of this goal will yield different rewards, but those rewards will be experienced on a fundamental human level.
Many will view the examples cited in the book as too small to be meaningful, undertaken with an overly optimistic outlook that will be impossible to achieve. But change has to start somewhere, and in the present situation a little inspiration is welcome. Deep Economy provides that inspiration.
- I'll grant that we're rendering the planet unfit for human habitation, and not just rhetorically, but because I agree with McKibben. But his solution to the dilemma -- localized economies, and less consumption -- begs a few questions. His solutions might be the answer, but he's disingenous in not acknowledging their downside, and he puts far too much faith in good intentions trumping the self-interest of the rich world.
1. Can local economies work everywhere? Large-scale economies have made it possible for humans to live in many environments that could probably not otherwise support large populations. Los Angles, after all, is a desert.
2. Those of us in rich countries have long been reluctant to sacrifice for the rest of the world, and in the US, even for our own countrymen. Why does McKibben think we'll start now? After all, the economic benefits of localization will accrue to others, not to us in the rich world. And won't an emphasis on local economies make us even less interested, if that's possible, in the fate of, say, Africans and Africa?
3. McKibben has an absurd faith in neighborliness. For example, he claims that local currencies have no downside, because local governments won't issue more currency than they'd be willing to accept in payment of taxes and fees. But if national governments abuse the power to print money, why won't local governments?
4. Small farms are more productive per acre, but less per person. This of course means many of us will be returning to the farm. How is that going to be sold to Americans?
5. So I buy apples from a nearby farm because they taste better, even if they're more expensive. Why would I buy more expensive shoes from the nearby factory if they're no different from cheaper shoes from Vietnam?
6. McKibben tells us how how horrible ecologically it would be if the Chinese lived like Americans do today. But of course they won't be able to; with the recent increases in commodity prices, even Americans can't continue to live like Americans. Increased demand for natural resources will prevent these horror stories from playing out.
- This book provides an insight into shifting society toward human values and survival of community, both of which are endangered. Delightfully readable and optimistic and practical.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel. By Princeton University Press.
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5 comments about Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations.
- As Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel explain at the beginning of their book, there are two main currents of thinking among those who opine on the wisdom of foreign aid: the "poverty trap" view, which holds that aid must be injected to end a vicious cycle in which inability to save leads to disaster in lean years, and the view that more such aid is simply sending good money after bad, straight into the hands of corrupt officials to be funneled away or otherwise wasted. Fisman and Miguel aim to look at corruption and violence in developing countries to determine how prevalent such evils are, how they are caused, and how they can be prevented--and, therefore, what the best way, non-ideologically-speaking, of raising up poor nations might be.
The funny thing about corruption is that it tends to exist out of sight--at least, out of sight of official statistics and public measurements. No one reports the bribes he takes on his income tax returns. So Fisman and Miguel have to come up with creative means of measuring corruption of various types, and this is the most fun part of their book. Economic Gangsters is completely accessible to the general reader, with virtually no economic jargon or concepts more difficult than "incentives matter," but it perfectly captures the exciting, puzzle-solving nature of this kind of academic research.
Fisman and Miguel's biggest, and most important, suggestion is the basic one that foreign aid and other solutions to developing-nation poverty be studied and implemented in an evidence-based manner. Without experimental data it's very difficult to determine whether a particular program is actually effective or not (or cost-effective or not). Randomized trials, like those carried out for developing medicines, are rare in the field of poverty reduction. But sometimes they are carried out. For example, local democratic control of public works projects is often touted as an antidote to corruption and skimming of funds. But in Indonesia a test was conducted to compare road building under local control, the thread of a federal audit, and no corruption prevention. Local control did little better than the control group, while those projects that were audited involved significantly less stolen money.
The authors adhere to their intention to remain non-ideological, and their interest is clearly in going where the evidence leads them. Unfortunately, large-scale economic experiments are often impossible and unethical, so some things can never be tested. But those interested in solutions that actually work should use what information they can. Economic Gangsters provides some of that information, and an interesting look at how to find it. It also tells some great stories about the incentives economic gangsters respond to, the strange circumstances that sometimes create these incentives, and how governments and other groups can play with them to aim for better outcomes.
- Eight years ago, as I crossed the Uganda-Kenya border, I was sequestered in a shack, interrogated, threatened with prison, and ultimately required to pay a bribe by border guards. After that harrowing experience, I returned to my hotel and recounted the story to the first friendly face I saw: my sympathetic colleague Ted Miguel. Ted and his colleague Ray spent the succeeding years studying violence and corruption in poor countries; and this sweet book is the latest fruit of those labors.
What can economics tell us about corruption and violence around the world? More, perhaps, than you'd expect. Ray and Ted use surprise changes in a dictator's health to measure the value of political connections in Indonesia, rainfall to capture the effect of recessions on violence in Africa, and tricks in the trade data to reveal smuggling. (That's not to mention the parking tickets - Chapter Four.) They present their clever research in surprisingly clear English, and they draw on the related research of other economists as well. They really know how to tell a story: I was captivated by the opening recounting of Kenyan author Ngugi's woes and delighted by the creative policy making of Antanas Mockus, mayor of Bogota.
It's hard not to compare popular economics books today to Freakonomics: Gangsters has the advantages of Ted and Ray's witty, pleasant voice, more of a thematic focus, and none of the self-adulation that took away some Freakonomics' shine.
Despite the focus on corruption and violence, ultimately the book is presenting a miscellany of work that is related but isn't (and perhaps cannot be) circumscribed into a larger theory. Occasionally I found myself wishing a central theory like you find in Malcolm Gladwell's books. But then again, those theories usually aren't convincing for exactly the reason that Ted and Ray don't have one: they are careful and big, broad theories are not. I really enjoyed the clear policy recommendation of Rapid Conflict Prevention Support in Chapter 6, and I look forward to more clear recommendations in the next book. Again, Ted and Ray are careful and tend not to recommend policies that don't have clear evidence to stand on. Not all scholars are comfortable laying out strong recommendations on limited evidence; two books by scholars who are more comfortable are The Bottom Billion and The End of Poverty. (As I recall, that's also the self-definition given by an economic hit man!) The main policy recommendation, ultimately, is more evidence-based policy making, particularly randomized trials of development programs (but with a healthy view of the realistic scope for these kinds of trials).
This book won't just show you that economists can be clever (although it will show you that): It shows that economics, cleverly applied, can illuminate some of the most intractable development problems of our time. I strongly recommend it. And if you don't trust me, Publishers Weekly said that in this "surprisingly spry" read, "fascinating insights abound" [1]. Take it from both of us and learn something.
[1] Publishers Weekly, 6 October 2008.
- A few years back, economists Ray Fisman (Columbia University) and Edward Miguel (University of California, Berkeley) caught the attention of the global media and the United Nations with their study of diplomats' unpaid parking tickets. At the time, diplomatic immunity allowed representatives to the international body to park in violation of city traffic codes, racking up fines. Fisman and Miguel looked at the list of traffic violations for UN plates over several years. They found that diplomats from some nations such as Canada and Ireland behaved themselves, parking lawfully and paying any tickets, while others such as Kuwait and Chad exploited their power, sometimes in ostentatious ways. Why? The ticket behavior, the economists suggested, is a proxy indicator for the intersection of culture and corruption.
Now, in their recently published book, Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations, Fisman and Miguel extend their corruption lens to the problems of conflict and development. They look for economic causes of conflict such as water scarcity or food crises to help explain everything from civil wars to witch trials. They ask whether more money or better governance is the key to economic growth for Africa, concluding that--although corruption and economic abuse is a key challenge to development--it won't really be possible to answer the big questions of the field until there is better quality, more scientific evaluation of the results of aid projects.
Economic Gangsters is a pleasurable and fast read, written for a popular audience who may or may not know the context of the work. For development specialists familiar with the writings of Jeffrey Sachs, William Easterly, and Paul Collier, the broad contents of the book will be familiar. As other reviewers pointed out, there is also a certain sense in which discussions of warlords and blood diamonds brush up against diplomats' parking tickets or randomized sampling without connections between the topics ever being delineated. On the whole, however, Fisman and Miguel's presentation feels fresh and dynamic. Even seasoned development practitioners are likely finish with a few new ideas inspired by the book's creative approach to cross-pollinating approaches and examples.
The book is available in print and in Amazon's Kindle e-reader format. The digital version suffers from occasional print type errors (for instance, writing budget as bud-get), but the charts and tables thankfully appear crisp and clear on the Kindle screen. I read in Kindle format and would be pleased to do so again.
Economic Gangsters deserves to be widely read. The authors' tone is friendly and simple, approachable even. This is important, given the complexity and high stakes of the issues at hand. Indeed, the economics of conflict and corruption need to be more widely understood if donor countries' policy making is going to be improved. Yet, one finishes reading this book on the topics of war, poverty, suffering, crime, and interventionist failure feeling not overwhelmed, but rather empowered--equipped with intellectual tools for making the world better, little by little.
- [Originally published at my blog, [...]
I read this book recently. The authors (Ray Fisman and Ted Miguel) are development economists at big schools (Columbia and UC Berkeley; Ted's in the econ department, but I see him and his RAs all the time), and they've written this book to give laymen some insight into the research we (economists) do and how that research can be used to advance development around the world.
Ray and Ted have structured their book around academic papers that they and their colleagues have written, omitting the tedious math and econometrics and adding explanations, stories and context to the questions at hand.
Relative to an economic textbook, this book is much more accessible and intuitive; relative to other development books (Easterly's Elusive Quest for Growth, Scott's Seeing Like a State, and even Perkins' Confessions of an Economic Hitman), this book is, uh, boring and overly didactic.
Yeah, sorry.*
Perhaps I am a jaded reader -- I've read about 2/3rds of the papers behind the book, and I've been "doing" development economics for 5-15 years (depending on who you ask) -- but the book only grabbed my interest a few times, e.g., the mayor of Bogota who used mimes to shame those breaking traffic laws. Put differently, I can think of better ways to spend your time.**
For those of you interested in the contents, here's a preview, chapter by chapter:
1) Economic development is impeded by corruption.
2) You can measure a company's political importance by watching its stock price when the corrupt dictator (Suharto in Indonesia) gets sick.***
3) You can detect corruption in the discrepancy between figures of the exporting country and importing country (e.g., Hong Kong to China). Distorted tariff and trade rules encourage corruption.
4) Some cultures are more corrupt than others. Ray and Ted discuss their brilliant paper, which showed that diplomats to the UN in NYC obeyed parking laws in rough proportion to their corruption at home (and attitudes towards the US) -- despite having the same immunity from prosecution. (I'm guessing that this paper was their book proposal.)
5) No water, no peace -- conflict rises when water supplies fall.**** Global warming will make this worse. Ray and Ted overlook an important problem in this chapter. They claim that the Rich world will not do too bad with climate change, but they forgot the adverse impact of a sick environment on quality of life.
6) When people are starving, they look for ways to reduce the demand for food. One way to do this is by finding and killing "witches". One way to stop the massacre of old women and children accused of witchcraft is to provide insurance against such risks, i.e., drought relief.
7) Countries can recover from war pretty quickly, but it's harder to recover from civil war or when ex-militants are left in unemployed groups. Vietnam succeeded; Iraq is failing.
8) Randomized trials (one village gets a new program, another "control" village is left alone) are a good way to evaluate anti-poverty programs.*****
Bottom Line: Anyone REALLY interested in development economics (but who is not an economist) should read this book. Everyone else should keep reading and debating at economics blogs :)
-------------------------------------
* And who am I, a lowly postdoc without a book to his name, to question the output of two superstar professors? Just me, folks...
** Listen to this great podcast [...], in which Richard Epstein discusses inequality and happiness.
*** Read this paper [...] to really understand how a developing country moves from the "Natural State" to the "Open Access Order."
**** Check out the updated Environment and Security Water Conflict Chronology" [...] from Peter Gleick's Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security (yes, that's the full name). It's pretty exhaustive, but it's also pretty inclusive (it includes incidents when one person is attacked, "perhaps" over water...)
***** I'm still amazed that a PhD student (Ben Olken) was given [...] to study corruption in Indonesian road building. Holy Cow! That's enough to fund 200 "normal" PhD research projects!
- I enjoyed this book and I think the research is compelling. Aside from a chapter in the middle of the book that veers inexplicably into Bush-bashing, Economic Gangsters is well written and very accessible. It is clearly written to introduce their ideas to readers who may have little or no experience with economics and there is little math or mathematical theory involved. I managed to breeze through it in about a week of before-bed reading.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Ron Paul. By Foundation for Rational Economics and Educati.
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5 comments about A Foreign Policy of Freedom: Peace, Commerce, and Honest Friendship.
- I could hardly get through this ponderous tome. Unlike his book "The Revolution: A Manifesto". This is not concise. Rather it is prolix. This book consists of nearly every speech given by Ron Paul from the house floor. Although I am not sure he is correct in his beliefs, he has shown a remarkable consistency through the years.
- A great, independent book that's neither to the left or the right in politics. This book was my favorite read of the year, and worth reading regardless of political or philosophical beliefs. Approachable and easy to read, but not "dumbed" down.
- The Champion of the Constitution, Ron Paul is someone one day you will tell your grandchildren about.
Want to know more about whats really going on that the mainstream news doesn't tell you? [...] because there is a war on for your mind. Listen to the Alex Jones radio show everyday for real news updates.
- I received this book extremely quickly from when I ordered it. It arrived in overall great shape. The front cover was a little bent over and I believe it was due to the loosely packed box it arrived in.
- I bought this book thinking that I could gain a greater understanding of Paul. But all I walk away with is the thought that this guy needs to read something other than Thomas Friedman articles. Paul, is at a position in Congress, in which he doesn't have to worry about the effects of liberalization of trade policies; however, those who have been going hungry and broke the last 30 years have had to contend with Paul's nightmarish vision of pure capitalism.
Listen up Ron Paul fanatics. This form of economics has been tried before. In the years leading up to the great Depression, Paul, would have been seen as a Hooverite, constantly advocating less government regulation of industry and the banking laws. It didn't work than and it won't work now. Put down the koolaid and read something by John Kenneth Galbraith or may be Robert Reich.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Murray N. Rothbard. By Ludwig Von Mises Institute.
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5 comments about The Case Against the Fed.
- Recently I read a book by Ron Paul and in a review I questioned some of his criticisms of the Federal Reserve. It's not that I'm some kind of defender of the Federal Reserve it's just that his alternative (having Congress in charge of monetary policy) seemed horrifying. Some folks politely urged me to do some further research on the subject suggesting this book so I've done my due diligence and read it.
There is a reoccurring theme when I speak to or read material from self described Libertarians. Apparently the Federal Reserve is a very devious organization that illegally counterfeits money. Counterfeiting is one of the most repeated charges I've heard leveled against the Federal Reserve and it never really made sense to me so I looked up the words definition in the American Heritage Dictionary. Counterfeiting is defined as, "To make a copy of, usually with the intent to defraud; forge". Other definitions said basically the same thing. Is U.S. currency a fraud or forgery given the fact that it is printed with the permission of the Federal government? The accusation seems baseless and bizarre. Since this is one of the primary legs of Mr. Rothbard's argument it leads me to question his entire case.
The main crux of the author's argument, if I understand it correctly, is that the Federal Reserve was created by and for the protection of United States banks to allow them to reap profits above and beyond what would naturally be possible. By going off the gold standard and allowing the Federal Reserve to create money out of thin air, inflation is driven up. The author writes, "The gold standard no longer servers as any kind of check upon the Central Bank's expansion of its credit" but I'm not even sure how the gold standard operated as a speed bump. Is it because it's a finite resource?
Much of the rest of the book is nothing more than a history of how the central bank was initially pushed in the United States. The author lists all the players involved and I do mean ALL the players. Page after page lists name after name until I became dizzy. I guess it's all supposed to sound very conspiratorial but it grew tiresome. His point was that the central bank was created at the behest of wealthy bankers. Is this shocking? I'm not sure. Unless I'm mistaken it WAS created to protect the integrity of banks to ensure customer confidence. Considering the book is a mere 151 pages this lengthy section seemed to be completely superfluous filler. This was the section that dragged the book down to two stars for me.
So in the end the author suggests abolishing the Federal Reserve, liquidating its assets and going back on the gold standard. Somehow I feel as if I'm missing some salient point. Hard currency has become rather quaint in this day and age. Well over 90% of my purchases are done without physical cash ever changing hands. It seems that just about anyone can create money out of thin air by purchasing using credit. I will agree that many of the regulating agencies in our country are set up more to lock out competition than to regulate industry but there seems to be no lack of banks. If the authors point was that the FDIC causes banks to engage in risky behavior I'm not sure that that's true either. I really have to question whether the advocates of returning to the gold standard and abolishing the Federal Reserve actually understand the ramifications or if it just feels good to get rid of a powerful institution. Getting rid of institutions seems to be one of the great pleasures of Libertarians with the Federal Reserve joining the IRS and the public school systems as primary targets. Seems like a bad idea to me but what do I know.
- The Case Against the FedThis book is a good primer on the Federal Reserve and banking in general. It is not a hard read and is interesting to those who want to learn about this very important part of our economy. Anyone who has even a remote interest in this book should also check out "The Creature from Jekyll Island". THE CREATURE FROM JEKYLL ISLAND - A Second Look at the Federal Reserve - 2008 Edition This book really gets into the subject in a fascinating way. It is really an eye opener and presents the Fed, banking, savings and loans, etc. in a way that is not only instructive but extremely entertaining. This should be a required text in every school!
- Rothbard repeatedly refers to the Federal Reserve as a "federal agency" when it's actually a private corporation. This fact alone condemns the fed more than any of the information in his pamphlet and he SOMEHOW LEAVES IT OUT! How can an author overlook such a simple fact? Seems to me this was written to confuse people about the true case against the fed - ITS NOT FEDERAL!
- This book is good overview of fractional reserve banking, the Fed, and their pernicious effects on the economy. With that said, the book is only 150 pages and those desiring a treatise on monetary policy should look elsewhere.
I love Rothbard's writing style. He combines humor with an unshakable search for truth, explaining difficult concepts clearly and thoroughly without belaboring the point.
Overall a great read!
- Does the excess of money worry you? Does the lack of money worry you? Were does money come from? Who owns this money? Most of all who creates this money? A plumber fixes your toilet or shower. He does not make money. A mechanic fixes your car. He does not make money. An accountant balances yours books but he does not make money so who does make money or better creates our money if these people do not and how? This book answers a lot of questions.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Jeffrey D. Sachs. By Penguin Press HC, The.
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5 comments about Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet.
- An excellent book by a truly authoritative author, this book even proposes solutions to many of the world-wide problems.
- IT IS A VERY INTERESTING BOOK ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT DEALS WITH AN IMPORTANT AND VERY RECENT ISSUE: SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THAT.
- This was a complete and total waste of my time. I actually think I may be dumber as a result of reading it. There are virtually no facts or studies cited in this book. He attempts to make historical references to provide basis to some of his opinions (that he presents more or less as if they are facts) but the causation is never clear. I think a book of this type needs to be written, but it obviously needs to be written by someone other than Jeffrey Sachs. He is just smart enough to be dangerous.
- I found this book to be an excellent read. If our nation and world would use some of the ideas presented in the book, we would have a much better planet. I plan on doing what I can to better our world, small steps, one day at a time.
- This wide ranging analysis of the world today and its future options should be a 'must read' at the highest level of all government agencies.
Any scathing attack on the deficiencies of the 2008 US regime are countered by offering workable opportunities to repair the damage and in particular to allow the United States to become a more believable power for good and to gain back some respect that the US once commanded with the rest of the world in the middle of the last century.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by William Fleckenstein and Fred Sheehan. By McGraw-Hill.
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5 comments about Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve.
- The author attacks Alan Greenspan for setting interest rates too low and thus causing all out economic problems. Why did Greenspan do this? He did not see the bubbles (that he himself created) because he was blinded by the "concept of technological driven productivity miracles." The author repeats this idea many many times. But from reading the first five pages you might wonder if Mr. Fleckenstein is the best person to launch a bubble attack like this. On page 3 the author leads you to note 2 (page 189) where he writes: "Determining that a bubble exists is somewhat subjective, though not terribly difficult." A couple of pages later on page 5, the author admits: "I saw the stock market bubble building and concluded it would end in disaster -- about four years too soon!" Should Fleckenstein not have disqualified himself from documenting forecasting failures at the Fed at this point? Taking strong action to stop a bubble based on the author's forecast could have driven us into a deep recession. In these first pages Fleckenstein proves with personal experience the validity of Greenspan's statement on page 99: "I don't think we can know there's a bubble until after the fact. To assume we know it presupposes that we have the capacity to forecast a imminent decline in prices." On page 162 in a confusing paragraph Fleckenstein seems to agree with this by writing: "What would be correct to say is that one can't exactly know what action might be required to stop a bubble." This not say that Mr. Greenspan is blameless.
The author quotes his column from 1999 to judge Greenspan without the benefit of hindsight. In this column he writes that the increases in stock prices are "breathtaking" but never uses the word, bubble, before it burst. He uses the word, bubble, in column on September 17, 2001 after it is bust. Even I did better than that. In my book, "How to Invest in Condominiums" I use bubble twice and tell my readers how to to avoid them (I finished writing the book in 1999). Yet Fleckenstein is the one who has the nerve to attack the FOMC for not using the word often enough. This book is all about criticism with the benefit of hindsight. There are no lessons learned. We have to take it on faith that tighter money applied here and there would have been better. He does not attempt to demonstrate his forecasting ability and help Chairman Ben Bernanke by telling him how big the bursting real estate bubble is and when it will hit bottom, so that the Fed can set the "correct" rate. But no, on page 184 the author indicates that Ben Bernanke would make the same decisions as Greenspan. When we finally know how big and bad the real estate bubble was, say in 2013, Ben Bernanke (if he is still there) and the FOMC are sure to get flack from Fleckenstein for allowing the bubble to end so badly. The FOMC will be unaware of this incoming flack or wisely ignore it. This negative evaluvation (or well documented rant) deserves three stars for providing an insight into how difficult the task the FOMC has is and why in the long run the value of our paper money will always erode.
- In this fascinating book, financial journalist William Fleckenstein studies the record of Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006.
Between 1937 and 1987 there were no bubbles, but Greenspan helped to create two bubbles in ten years - in stocks and then in real estate - by holding interest rates too low, punishing savers. He helped to make the American people worse off by redistributing wealth to the rich, the bubbles' boosters and sponsors.
Greenspan viewed new technology expenses as assets. So he thought that productivity and profits were higher than they really were, that inflation was overstated and that stocks were understated. In 1998 firms spent $95 billion on computers. After Greenspan's `hedonic adjustment', this came out as $352 billion, adding 2% to US GDP.
Governments want to understate inflation and overstate growth, productivity and incomes. So now, most price rises seem to be way above the rate of inflation.
Greenspan's rate cut of 15 October 1998 triggered the stock market bubble. By 1999 the stock market was valued at 180% of US GDP. (In the last bubble, in 1929, it was 85% of GDP.) In 2000-01 this bubble burst - the new technology miracle proved to be a mirage. In 1992-99 there was zero productivity growth in 99% of the US economy, and growth only in 1%, computer hardware.
In 2001-03, housing `saved' the US economy from the aftershock of the stock bubble. De-regulation led to lower lending standards with more `creative' financial instruments, like the $500 trillion worth of derivatives, which Warren Buffett described as `financial instruments of mass destruction'.
So from 2003 to 2007 there was a real estate bubble, based on huge debts. Mortgage-equity withdrawals created half US GDP growth between 2001 and 2007. By 2006, household debt was 97% of GDP: mortgage debt was $13.3 trillion. Total US debt in 2007 was 325% of GDP.
This ocean of debts rested on a falling real estate market, a sinking economy and a weak currency. Where could the next economic rebound come from? Capitalism has destroyed production and destroyed the housing market: it is running out of options.
- Greenspan will be forever linked to the global financial meltdown of 2008. History will not be kind to the Bubble Boy.
- This is a truly invaluable book. Fleckenstein shows,beyond any doubt, that Alan Greenspan has been a disaster for the country and the economy. Even before becoming Fed chairman, Greenspan had demonstrated his incompetence (Read the beginning where Greenspan's predictions as one of President Ford's advisers would drastically miss the mark). Unfortunately, Greenspan would be confirmed as Fed chairman and begin a nearly twenty year career of gross mismanagement.
Fleckenstein quotes Greenspan repeatedly, demonstrating the Fed Chairman's inability to predict the stock market or housing bubble (or anything else for that matter). Greenspan comes off as completely incompetent in Greenspan's Bubbles. Perhaps some day the Federal Reserve will be abolished and the economy will not be subject to the whims of mediocre men like Greenspan and Bernanke. If that day comes, it will be because of thoughtful experts like this book's author. I also recommend Ron Paul's analysis of Greenspan in his recent book--Paul points out that Greenspan once supported sound money but changed his views as the lure of great power as a central planner seduced him.
- This book is a disappointment. For the happy few it might be an interesting read, but for someone intereted in the general ramifications of the Greenspan era it is a huge dissappointment.
The book seems to be a blow-by-blow vendetta of the author against Alan Greenspan. And while the author clearly has an authority on the whole subject, he fails to engage his reader by not clarifying the details on why he rants againts Greenspan. Sometimes too much knowledge can be a hindrance.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Muhammad Yunus. By PublicAffairs.
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5 comments about Banker To The Poor: Micro-Lending and the Battle Against World Poverty.
- This audio book was absolutely wonderful. I found it really inspiring and engaging. I was really surprised by how interesting it was, I was afraid it would be a little dry but that wasn't true at all. I enjoyed every chapter. This book really did make me want to change my life, it gave me a lot to think about that I'm still working with. In fact I hope I never stop thinking about it and the issues it opened up.
The reader was very good, he had enough inflection in his voice to keep it interesting, but did not over play the words. It was the sort of narration that provided a similar feeling to reading myself, where I could put my own emphasis and voice to the words and not be distracted by the an overly dramatic narrator.
- Banker To The Poor: Micro-Lending and the Battle Against World Poverty
This is a life changing book! This book will change the way that you think about poverty and how to end it. In this book, Professor Yunus tells of his own journey in first recognising that the University in which he lectured in Economics, needed to impact his local community, and secondly, doing something about it. The book has all of the elements of a good novel, humour, romance, and drama, but it is so much more. Buy this book, read this book, and then join Kiva.org to make a difference.
- A well written book about how Yunus successfully lent money to impoverished people in Bangladesh and, in so doing, empowered them to create better lives for themselves. The pages echo Yunus's faith in the human spirit, his dedication to eradicating poverty, and his tenacity to succeed in the face of naysayers cries. He talks about the origins of the banks name, The Grameen Bank and notes that Grameen derives from the word gram, or village.
Yunus denounces typical methods of poverty reduction, such as those that tie funds to skills training. And he acknowledges that he has critics in this regard. He writes, "I firmly believe that all human beings have an innate skill. I call it the survival skill. The fact that the poor are alive is clear proof of their ability. They do not need us to teach them how to survive; they already know how to do this. So rather than waste our time teaching them new skills, we try to make maximum use of their existing skills. Giving the poor access to credit allows them to immediate put into practice the skills they already know - to weave, husk rice patty, raise cows, peddle a rickshaw." (p. 140).
- On a recent flight, I read an outstanding book called Banker to the Poor Microlending and the Battle Against World Poverty by Muhammad Yunus. Muhammad taught economics at the University of Bangladesh and saw the poverty around him and felt that that his theoretical work at the university was not solving the problem. What he saw was the small amounts of money loaned to people to allow them to start their business or raw materials could have a huge impact.
He started Grameen Bank and started making micro-credit loans to people in groups using the social pressure to make sure everyone repays their loans. His first loans he saw that 42 people needed $27.00 to buy raw materials and this was his first loan. He had tremendous success repaying the loans and has since grown to almost 2,000 branches and a staff of 11,000 which has loaned $3.9 billion with a recovery rate of 98%.
Impressive results with limited resources.
This is a true book of hope and definitely worth reading.
- This books shows us that the lack of access to credit for the poorest of the poor is possibly as bad as lack of food. Without some access to credit they have absolutely no chance to ever get out of the revolving situation that will absorb then and their children. It's a vicious cycle of poverty that will be perpetuated unless they are given a chance to break it. And they all want to break it. Not for themselves, but for their future generations, which will incrementally improve their situation.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Jeffrey Sachs. By Penguin (Non-Classics).
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5 comments about The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time.
- Jeffrey Sachs uses his broad knowledge to frame the context of a call for action to end extreme poverty in our generation. He demonstrates through detailed statistical comparisons the evolution of the widening gap of economic opportunity between the world's regions, and provides interesting narrative examples to support his conclusions.
Although the statistics sometimes are mind-numbing, Sachs does a good job of creating graphical representations in the form of world maps, which serve to educate the reader and demonstrate the often overlooked connections between health, education and economic development. He has "done his homework" in providing a wealth of historic perspectives on the problems we observe in today's economy.
Sachs uses his groundwork effectively as a springboard to inspire our thinking about how we can help create a better world by doing relatively simple things. Again, he uses the narrative to demonstrate how small amounts of money, medicine or appropriate technologies, delivered to the point of need, can make a huge difference in the outcomes for people living in or near extreme poverty.
- the man who has brought destruction to the Russian economy through the "shock therapy" and preparing the ground for his zionist jewish friends in Russia to own all the key national assets, now goes on to tell us what to do with the rest of the world...his books should be prohibited
- I read. A lot. That said, only half this book is worth the time and energy it took me to read it. The middle half, to be specific. The first few chapters are dedicated to Sachs detailing to us that, no, he's not an idiot writing about something he's had no experience with and that, yes, he can help to solve macroeconomic problems. The end chapters are all Sachs recapping what he said in the rest of the book with charts and graphs that start to become meaningless if you're not a economist or a student with a couple econ classes under your belt. The middle, in my opinion, is the only redeeming part of this book that mentions far too often big-names Sachs has met and important jobs he's held. The middle actually talks about his plan for ending extreme poverty by 2015 and how we can do it. The rest of the book is just padding. So read chapters 8 - 15 if you want to "read" the book. Donate money to an NGO if you want to do something towards ending poverty with your time.
- What do Bono, and countless other celebrities have in common with the author? A: They've always wanted to be celebrities. What is different? A: The celebs actually think that the world can be rid of poverty and misery and vice.
Are you honestly going to tell me that one of the world's most influential economists ACTUALLY believes that poverty can be banished or even meaningfully reduced? Not a chance. Not with Africa's population growth rate. Sachs is selling panic again to promote himself and it's really beginning to grate my nerves.
The entire book is a formula to get people "involved" i.e.: spending money a happy percentage of which Sachs and others like him will collect. The truth is that despite all the self-important boo-hooing about how a child dies every 3 seconds in Africa, no one ever mentions that 12 were just born and 8 survived which is why the continent has a growth rate of 3% and will harbor 1.2 billion starving souls in next 23 years. People who, when China and India become as rich as Japan, will be happy to stitch together our soccer balls.
- If you are like me, you may often worry about the poor and the underprivileged across the world. You may wonder what it would take to help them achieve sustainable livelihoods which is the first step to ending poverty for them. You may even be wondering what role you could play in ending poverty in this world. Well, look no further because here is the book that is a must-read for anyone concerned about global poverty and how to overcome it - "The End of Poverty" by Dr. Jeffery Sachs. Dr. Sachs, one of the leading economists of our times makes this book comprehensible for everyone even if you are not an economist. And what is even more wonderful is that he backs up most of his claims with well-grounded research and reasoning.
The book mainly talks about overcoming extreme poverty. Dr. Sachs defines a person as extremely poor if he/she cannot meet basic needs required for survival. He says that the extremely poor "are chronically hungry, unable to access health care, lack the amenities of safe drinking water, and sanitation, cannot afford education for some or all of the children and perhaps lack rudimentary shelter [..] and basic articles of clothing such as shoes. Unlike moderate and relative poverty, extreme poverty occurs only in developing countries." And 93% of the world's extremely poor live in East Asia, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Of course, when a country grows economically, it has a direct effect on reducing the extremely poor in that country. But the reason, that many of the countries have not been able to achieve the expected economic growth, as many statistical studies have shown, is due to a multiplicity of factors including fertility rates, education levels, diseases, trade policies and even climate and proximity to markets, some of which are not under the control of the governments of these countries .
As part of the U.N initiated Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the developed countries committed to contributing 0.7 percent of GNP every year to help the developing countries eradicate extreme poverty by the year 2025 through investments that contribute to sustained economic growth. By presenting a thorough analysis, Dr. Sachs shows that this is adequate money to reach the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2025. So, you may now be wondering where is the problem.
As Dr. Sachs skillfully presents in the book, the problem lies in the fact that the developed world has not kept it's promise although they make it sound that they are doing their best. So, the book is dedicated to making the case to convince the developed world, as to why they should keep their promise, why helping the developing countries eradicate extreme poverty is not just the right thing to do morally but also why it would benefit the developed world in the long term much more than many of the current foreign policies that are on the table. In the process, Dr. Sachs takes institutions like IMF, WorldBank and even the US federal government head-on. He even answers many questions and criticisms about his ideas and theories. On the whole, he makes the book a very engrossing, intriguing and inspiring read. At the end of it, you may even walk away with ideas on how you could help combat global poverty.
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Posted in Economic Policy and Development (Friday, December 5, 2008)
Written by Burton W., Jr. Folsom. By Threshold Editions.
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3 comments about New Deal or Raw Deal?: How FDR's Economic Legacy Has Damaged America.
- Burton Folsom, a Professor of History at Hillsdale College, already has one classic to his credit: "Myth of the Robber Barons." Now he offers a concise, yet detailed, revision of the Leuchtenberg-Schlesinger myth that Franklin Roosevelt "saved" capitalism. In both his introduction and concluding remarks, Folsom assesses why the legend arose that Roosevelt had "brought us out of the Depression." He engages in a brief analysis of what caused the Great Depression, frequently noting that the economists have left the historians in the dust: the majority of economists today neither think that business failures caused the Great Depression, or that Roosevelt's policies did much to temper it, let alone solve the crisis.
Folsom assesses adequate blame to Herbert Hoover, though not (as is commonly portrayed) as a wild-eyed laissez-faire capitalist, but as a meddling Progressive in the mold of Woodrow Wilson. Roosevelt in many ways merely continues, but greatly expands, Hoover's programs. One of the more interesting chapters deals with the NRA and its price fixing schemes. Here we had an agency of the federal government telling tailors what they could charge to hem a pair of pants! The NRA, thankfully, was brought down by a butcher who, in the process of selling chickens, allowed his customers to (imagine this!) select the chicken they wanted. The NRA goons attempted to force him to demand that they blindly take the first chicken that came within reach. In the subsequent court decision, the NRA was ruled unconstitutional. By that time, at least one businessman, who thought he couldn't charge the high prices demanded by the NRA or lose his customers, languished in jail, running his business from behind bars.
Folsom covers the better-known distortions of the New Deal---the minimum wage, Social Security, the banking regulations---but also reveals how Roosevelt used the IRS to smash political enemies, including editors whose columns he didn't care for. It's a chilling image, given talk of re-instituting the modern-day "gag rule" called the "fairness doctrine." Roosevelt used federal money as much to ensure his re-election as he did to stimulate a recovery, plastering wavering districts with cash until they arrived at the right ballot-box conclusions. Thus, as Folsom shows, the New Deal was not just an economic rebuilding program, but a political weapon designed to ensure the Democrat Party would hold power for much of the 20th century.
A good compliment to Amity Shlaes' "The Forgotten Man," Folsom sticks more to the specifics of how each piece of legislation retarded recovery. There is no question, when you finish, that Roosevelt stuck most Americans with a "raw deal" to ensure he remained in the White House for more than a decade.
- Folsom has delivered a book that is tough to put down. While flying to a conference the other day, I was reading New Deal or Raw Deal and telling my friend (who was reading another book) how great Folsom's book is and talking about some key points brought up by Dr. Folsom. I left my seat for a moment; when I returned, my friend was reading Folsom's book, and I had a hard time getting it back.
Roosevelt helped create major rifts between those who were wealthy and those who were poor and middle class. He even indicated he did that to win the election rather than pursue what was best for the country. He tried to stack the Supreme Court and used the IRS to harass his major critics.
I've had to remind myself repeatedly that this is not a fictional work and that it is about a president in the USA rather than a dictator in some distant country. For example, the New Deal's birth of the National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 was bizarre. "It allowed American industrialists to collaborate to set the prices of their products and even the wages and hours that went into making them. Leaders in all industries, from steel and coal to shoulder pads and dog food, were invited to sit down and write codes of fair competition that would be binding on all producers in their industry. Laborers were often allowed to organize, and anti-trust laws were suspended." (pp. 43-44) The result was that many big companies could easily take business from smaller companies because the larger companies controlled the price fixing. An example Folsom uses is Jacob Maged of Jersey City, NJ. After 22 years of running a successful small business pressing clothes, Maged's reputation was one of quality work at a reasonable cost. The NRA then demanded that he charge 40 cents to press a suit instead of 35 cents. He was sent to jail and given a $100 fine for refusing to increase his prices.
Folsom has thoroughly documented the facts in the book, including several pages of sources.
By the end of the book, it is no mystery whether Roosevelt orchestrated the New Deal or a raw deal.
This book is incredibly timely. The most disturbing part is it seems like we are headed in the same direction today.
- Best book I have read in many years. This is well written and researched. You will love this book if you take the time to read it I guarantee. You will come away with a completely different idea in your mind of what FDR did for America during the years of the great depression. Best part the book is based on facts that are presented to you in a way you can see that they are true. Do yourself a favor and purchase this book. Lisa Roberts RN
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