5 comments about Holistic Management: A New Framework for Decision Making.

1. I found the entire book very interesting, in that it talked in great detail about low-rainfall, brittle environments. These environments are hardly covered in most science books. Nevertheless, I expected to read more about the details of running livestock succesfully on these brittle environments. I am looking forward to further, more specific publications from Mr. Savory.

   Don't missunderstand me. I enjoyed this book thoroughly and would highly reccomend it to anyone who lives off the land and who is in close contact with nature.

   AW




2. Sustainability has become the central drama of our time, yet within the sustainability movement there is a huge conflict. It isn't the environmentalists against the dam builders this time--it is between those who see nature mainly as a domain, reserve, or area, and those who see nature as a process. Both sides largely agree that there is a serious ecological crisis, we are on the brink, and that humanity needs to change its ways. But there is an enormous disagreement on the problem, and on the prescription.

   For the majority of writers on sustainability, the causes of our crisis are greed, overpopulation, consumption, development, and multinational corporations. For them, sustainability is a modern, industrial-era problem. The solutions are political: shift power from the wrong people and organizations to the right people and organizations, or quit logging, grazing, or using chemicals.

   Savory's book shows, in convincing and elegant detail, that those who concentrate on shifting ideology or politics to move toward sustainability are just rearranging the deck chairs. The backlash and the revenge of unintended consequences will continue. If we are serious about this, we must change our decision framework. The way we make decisions, which is usually unconscious and habitual, is the key factor. Savory and Butterfield show us how this works, from start to finish.




3. This is a book could be beneficial to anyone ... from individuals, to families, to cooperations, to farmers/ranchers, to governments.
   
   Go to his webiste *holistic management dot com* for some of the most enlightening truth about the environement and our responsibility and what ACTUALLY WORKS in saving and preserving the environment. You will many Ah-Ha moments.
   
   A very empowering book as well as you write out your QUALITY OF LIFE statement, your forms of production and your future resource base. An empowring book because it deals with really getting at the root and working towards a solution no matter who is involved.
   
   If you want to solve problems and live with purpose and actually make a difference towards a sustainable civilization .. This book is at the top of the list.
   AND.. It is just plain interesting !! Thank you Mr. Savory.



4. Very interesting tome that is overwhelming because it changlenges all of the mindsets that one generally has concerning land management. The book has sections that are good for everyone, not just the land manager, and should be skimmed by anyone who cares about this planet and wants to make a difference.



5. G'day,
   
   This seminal tome is a great shelf and operational ally to those works produced by Bill Mollison, David Holmgren, Masanobu Fukuoka & P.A. Yeomans etc. Allan Savory's grazing techniques are revolutionary and are a perfect antidote to rising atmospheric CO2 levels, as the regenerative development of healthy functional ecosystems, especially grassland, are the most cost-effect and potent means of reversing this trend and its associated impacts, which include runaway desertification....among many other assaults on the carbon bank...
   
   Decision making processes are what this book is really about though and it is life changing in that respect....and simply so as the process is easy to use and as thoroughly considered as it needs to be. In the "Great Retrofit", as I like to call it, of our human effected landscapes (which is most of the biosphere), adoption of these processes together with Mollisonian & Holmgrenian Permaculture Ethics & Principles, Fukuoka's philosophy, and Yeomans' techniques would cause to make a "paradigm" shift in the state of the world, its landscapes and organisms, and indeed humanity.

2 comments about Carbon Finance: The Financial Implications of Climate Change (Wiley Finance).

1. The book is an acknowledgement of how environmental concerns, and specifically global warming, are approaching mainstream. Labatt and White give a sober summary of various types of energy sources, nonrenewable and renewable. With the pros and cons of each.
   
   Aside from these energy sources, they also discuss how to perhaps sequester carbon. That is, remove what is usually carbon dioxide emissions from the environment. One promising idea is to inject it into deep oil and gas fields. In part, this is helped by the fact that it is already being done. Albeit to improve extraction of the oil and gas.
   
   The text also explains how aviation is a huge source of CO2 emissions. Something not originally considered significant, just a few years ago.
   
   The book also goes into ways to do emissions trading. Big problems still exist, including verification of emissions. There is no mention of some pioneering work in the early 90s in Southern California, with the Air Quality Management District, and an exchange called Buenos Aires [sic].
   
   Various trading mechanisms have started up. But nothing yet with a large global scope.



2. This is a good book if you want to have an overall picture on the Carbon markets. The book provides summary of how the carbon markets were formed, why and how. However, do not expect to find any finance related chapters in the book, such as an in depth description of how instruments are structured, or on how to implement carbon instruments in actual projects. However, this book is excellent as an introduction, and is a must read before going on to more complicated text. My only problem with the book was its title, which gave me the impression that the book will be much more concentrated on the "financial" part of carbon trading.

5 comments about Affluenza: The All-Consuming Epidemic.

1. I read a first edition (2001) from the library and while the book is good it is very dated. Newer edition may improve the suggestions part as that was where i feel the book was weakest. Excellent history of consumption in the US.



2. Odds are you're infected with affluenza but, don't worry, there is a cure. You'll just need to take the medicine. This book is both entertaining and thought provoking.
   
   Take an honest look at the degree of your illness, make some changes to how you think and the results could amaze you. They say the best things in life are free but some of us had to buy this book (the book's not free) to really appreciate that.



3. I bought this book after deciding it had a cool cover and reading a couple reviews promising to provide me insight. Maybe it would have, but I simply cannot read this because within the first few paragraphs I've noticed the following:
   
   1. The common video rental store Blockbuster has been called "Blockbuster's" by the author. Not only is this just incorrect, but it doesn't even make sense.
   
   2. A reference to a "Nintendo Play Station" has been made.
   
   This perturbs me in all manner of ways because I feel like if I'm to submit myself to a few authors' collective views on our culture and society, they should AT LEAST know more about it than me. That is, they should know how to use apostrophes, what the name of Blockbuster is, and what a Sony PlayStation is.
   
   Additionally, as I flipped through the book to decide if I wanted to read any more, I noticed that the writing is overtly pretentious and not really interesting, and also that the book is filled with these "witty" little cartoons reminiscent of the political garbage you see in newspapers.
   
   Not recommended.



4. I had to read this book for summer reading for an AP Gov course. It was a dreadful experience. It was very difficult to force myself to read more than one chapter per sitting because of the book's repetitiveness and dullness. If you actually want to read it, let me save you the time while I summarize it:
   
   -Spend more time hiking than working.
   -Don't get a well paying job, because it will make you miserable and you will undoubtedly go into dept.
   -take a low paying job, because life will be great. As long as you dont want to buy anything.
   -Don't buy material goods that make you happy.
   -Only nature and people make you happy.
   -Rich people, 90% of the time are littering, stuck-up, scumbags.
   
   pack that into 250 pages, and there you go.



5. I originally purchased this book with the intention of having my strongly held beliefs regarding consumerism and materialism verified. I expected this read to consist primarily of me nodding my head in agreement as the authors trumpeted the evils of the consumerist lifestyle and brought their years of research and experience in this area to bear on this so very relevant and problematic issue. However, this did not turn out to be the case. After about page 10 I realised that something was wrong with this book and it had nothing to do with a lack of knowledge, experience or literary skill.
   It is hard to criticise a book whose core arguments, underlying philosophy and general world view you agree with, but this book is filled with so much garbage science and biased logic it is impossible to award it special treatment for being right, as it is right for all the wrong reasons.
   
   I am a scientific person and a realist. I am an avid environmentalist and have even removed my television because I believe it is a bad influence. For work, I conduct economic research for a university in Sydney, and as such I believe that the plausibility for any argument is based primarily on its supporting facts and underlying logic. For someone of my persuasion, this book is an arduous medley of disparate quotations, faulty logic and 'feel-good' exoneration. Do you feel "restless", "bored", "unsatisfied" or "de-individualized"? Well, dont worry its not your fault, its the evil corporations and mass media "which deliberately attempts to exploit them (consumers) by offering new products... repressing their individuality... and promises to fill the emptiness" (p.80). This is just one of the BS arguments that is presented over and over again in this book without any justification. Why feel guilty when you know you can blame someone else? And who else is easier to vilify than the money-grubbing corporations and advertisers who try to "vitiate the true purposes, dignity and savour of life". I can hear the shackles of the proletariat cracking already.
   
   This book in a pseudo-Marxist tirade on capitalism and its uneven allocation of resources, which is fine in my books, and the main premise of this book promotes some form of idyll over continual industrial and technological expansion, but instead of offering a philosophy of their own they just bunch together a collection of random quotes on anti-consumerism. This is one of this books biggest failings - they never even alude to 'why' materialism and the capitalist system is wrong, they dont attempt to provide an alternative philosophy or why the alternative lifestyle they promote is superior or even justified. Instead they simply try to entice the reader with the promise that all your worries and hardship will evaporate when you give up the consumerist lifestyle and adopt something more minimalist. It is cold-reading and scapegoating at its worst.
   
   They say that people are working too hard, the hours they work are too long and they are forgoing the more meaningful pursuits of life in exchange for more stuff. That overwork is a primary cause of depression, divorce, listlessness, the break down of the family unit, stroke, cancer and car accidents. This point is argued over and over in this book, without any scientific support. Have these authors never considered the possibility that people may gain satisfaction from working hard and being the best they can be? That their work may be helping society or improving our understanding of the universe? Would you tell an olympic athlete who is dedicated to being the best that he shouldn't train so hard? Or that a charity worker shouldn't go overseas because it could put strain on their relationships at home? For anyone who believes that hard work and dedication are virtues, this book will be head-shakingly irritating.
   
   However bad these problems, it is the logical contradictions and scientific solecisms made on almost every page (!) that is the real failing of this book. In one chapter they will argue that product homogenization is destroying individuality and in the next chapter say that the huge diversity of products is clouding our ability to make the 'right' decisions (chp 10 and 11). They will quote the statistic on the increase in the average work week, then quote the statistic on the rise in sleep deprivation, and then quote the number of car accidents resulting from people falling asleep at the wheel and without any justification say that working too hard causes car accidents (p.45). They run a double standard for profiteering corporations and environmental conservationists (p.56, 61 &186). They lack a basic understanding of the economic concepts of purchasing power parity, the measurement of GDP or efficiency wages, although they quote these economic variables to support their arguments freely. I couldn't possibly list every questionable or downright BS argument they make, but suffice it to say that every time I read something I disagreed with I would note down next to it why and mark the page with a fold in the corner. Well, my copy of Affluenze is now more than three times as thick as the original as 2 out of every 3 pages is folded.
   
   I found this book and its corrupt form of argument unsatisfying and irksome. Other peoples quotes make up 50% of the book (and 95% of the valid points) and almost none of the ideas in the book are original. This book completely misses the point about why consumerism is bad; that its is wrong to judge people based upon the value of their possessions or the degree of their celebrity; that capitalism is a goal-less exercise that destroys the environment for the sake of 'individual utility' and a 'keeping up with the jones' arms race; that we (eukacaryotes) have battled through half a billion years of evolution just to squander everything Earth has to offer in a final outburst of maximising our emotional indulgence.

No comments about Harvard Business Review on Profiting from Green Business (A Harvard Business Review Paperback).

No comments about Civic Agriculture: Reconnecting Farm, Food, and Community (Civil Society Series).

5 comments about A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World.

1. It feels appropriate to review this book as crude oil futures hit all-time contract highs... The 1980 inflation-adjusted highs for crude (roughly $100 per barrel in today's money) are just around the corner in geopolitical terms.
   
   In the book's title, "A Thousand Barrels a Second" refers to the point at which world oil demand exceeds 86 million barrels per day. (86.4 to be exact--there are 86,400 seconds in one day). The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes the 86 million threshold could be crossed this year.
   
   The "Coming Oil Break Point" refers to the aftermath of crisis and inevitable forced change. Tertzakian explains:
   
   "...the history of energy shows that a time of crisis is always followed by a defining break point, after which government policies, and social and technological forces, begin to rebalance the structure of the world's vast energy complex. Break points are crucial junctures marked by dramatic changes in the way energy is used."
   
   During the break point and the rebalancing phase that follows (which can last for 10 to 20 years), nations struggle for answers, consumers suffer and complain, the economy adapts, and science surges with innovation and discovery. In the era that emerges, lifestyles change, businesses are born, and fortunes are made.
   
   I read the entire book on one leg of a coast-to-coast plane trip, a feat made possible by the clarity and lucidity of Tertzakian's writing. He excels at laying out detailed concepts in ways that are easy for the reader to grasp and understand, and paints a convincing picture of the significant challenges we face.
   
   Tertzakian firmly grounds his argument in history, explaining what he calls the "evolutionary energy cycle" through the lens of past transitions. At one point we journeyed to the ends of the earth for whale oil, just as we do for "rock oil" (the literal meaning of petroleum) today. In the switch from wood to coal, tallow to whale oil, whale oil to kerosene, and so on, predictable aspects of the evolutionary energy cycle begin to emerge.
   
   In addition to outlining the situation we're in, Tertzakian gives a fascinating, though brief, history of the oil industry. He covers the rise of Rockefeller's Standard Oil, its eventual breakup, the curious origins of Saudi Aramco, the British Navy's fateful switch from coal to oil, energy's role in respect to railroads and WWII, and more.
   
   In my opinion, Tertzakian can be classified as an Urgent Simonist.* The word "Urgent" is meant to distinguish from the "Pollyanna" Simonists--those who believe technology will magically solve our energy problems with no real pain or discomfort.
   
   On the emotional subject of peak oil, there are two extremes of debate. At one end you have those who think civilization is doomed no matter what (the viewpoint of cheery websites like dieoff.org). At the other end, you have those who think peak oil will be shaken off like a mild head cold.
   
   Tertzakian helps bridge the gap between these extremes by explaining that yes, the challenge is serious, and gut-wrenching times are ahead... but we will ultimately see our way through. He is "urgent" in pointing out that the sooner we act the better, and pulls no punches in terms of what's at stake.
   
   Perhaps the real power of "A Thousand Barrels A Second" is in showing readers how to think about the big picture, orienting them to the mind-boggling mechanics of energy supply chains.
   
   There are so many steps and processes involved in the discovery, extraction, and distribution of energy that supply chains generally evolve at a glacial pace. Major energy transitions are measured in decades, not years; the scale and scope of the task is breathtaking to behold. Without taking a closer look behind the scenes, it's hard to get an intuitive sense of the time frames and logistical complexities involved. Tertzakian helps readers do that.
   
   In sum, if you truly want to understand the energy issues we face--or at least get a handle on the key elements--I strongly recommend this book. It could also make an excellent gift for those friends and colleagues locked in one of the "extreme" camps, i.e. "what me worry" vs. "we're all going to die." (The book might not change their mind, but it will certainly make them think.)
   
   I too consider myself an Urgent Simonist--we'll make it through, but only with serious pain--and believe that Tertzakian succeeds in his goal of providing "a highly researched and balanced assessment of our energy situation."
   
   *Julian Simon, an influential economist, wrote a book in 1981 called The Ultimate Resource, in which he argued that technology and human ingenuity would always ensure an abundance of raw materials. In 1980, he also made a famous wager that a basket of base metals would fall in price, rather than rise, over a significant period of time. He won the bet. Ever since, those who believe in the power of innovation to overcome doomsday scarcity predictions have been dubbed "Simonists."



2. The number of books on energy and oil seems to get bigger all the time. This is an interesting one for two reasons. First of all, it gives a very good background to previous energy transitions that can serve as a thought-provoking lead-in to the topic of oil. Second, the book does not engage in what some would see as the hype or doomsday approach of many books on global warming or peak oil. Tertzekian gives all the bleak numbers, but still manages to come up with an optimistic outlook. When I was reading the book, I felt like it might be a little too conservative, but this is the one I find myself quoting most often in discussions of energy issues.
   
   Anyone who is convinced that peak oil will lead to a frightening and drastic downfall of our way of life should read this book. It presents another possible point of view in which an evolution to a different but ultimately acceptable way of life is achievable. While peak oil writers have a lot of evidence on their side, Tertzekian has a lot of historical precedent on his.



3. I enjoyed this book. Mr Tertzakian knows something about oil. I don't share his optimist views of the future. Heavy sour and Tar Sands will not save the world, yet, overall Mr. Tertzakian is a smart man and I enjoyed reading his book. Regards, Keith Renick, Project Materials Specialist, Project Management Team, Riyadh Refinery, Saudi Aramco Oil Company, Retired



4. The author did an excellent job explaining the history of energy cycles and their general behavior. He explained in a simple way how the cycles worked and the time it takes to shift from one source to another source. Peter pinpointed what is behind the surge in oil prices and why it is different than the surges of 73 and 79. I really enjoyed his analysis of different countries' oil dependencies and their relations to GDP. The author discussed all the alternatives available on the table and showed which ones are likely to work within the near future and the extended future. He proposed several solutions to ease the burden on oil prices, some of them are very workable but need dedication from the population. I strongly recommend the book for anyone interested in energy matters and definitely for all energy companies' managers and executives.



5. This book gives a good introduction to the economics of energy, with an emphasis on what is going to happen when we run out of oil. It charts a middle course between doom-and-gloom pessimism, and blind optimism that innovation and market forces will automatically fix everything. The author uses his experience investing in the energy industry to give what seems to be a fairly realistic picture of what is likely to happen in the short term. The obvious fact is that as demand for oil begans to outstrip supply - and there are strong indications that the supply of oil is peaking or will peak soon - we will have to start making more use of other sources of energy. The good news is that additional sources are available, so civilization is probably not about to collapse. The bad news (for me at least) is that we are likely to follow the path of least resistance which entails making increasing use of other fossil fuels, especially coal. This is even worse for the environment than oil, and will just postpone and make more difficult the necessary process of transitioning to renewable sources of energy.
   
   While there is nothing very deep or subtle in the book, it gives a good overview of the history of our use of energy, and lots of facts and figures and graphs about our current energy use. In particular there are lots of graphs showing the evolution over time of the "energy mix", namely how much of our energy comes from various different sources. As such, this book could be a very useful primer in order to better understand what one reads about energy in the news and the significance of the various numbers that appear there.
   
   There are also a few very interesting tidbits. One of the more disturbing ones is that our rate of economic growth is strongly correlated with our use of oil. In other words, roughly speaking, for every dollar you spend, you cause a certain amount of oil to be consumed. The book claims that certain countries, such as Japan, have managed to neutralize this trend. However, because of globalization I'm not sure if it really makes sense to consider this question at only a national level. For example, lots of the fossil fuel that is burned in China is used to manufacture goods that are shipped to the US. This is an example of what I mean when I say that the book is not that deep or subtle.
   
   Anyway, if you want to better understand what is going on with our use of energy, this book is a good place to start.

No comments about Climate Change: What's Your Business Strategy? (Memo to the CEO).

5 comments about Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population.

1. I find it problematic that Mr. Connelly concludes that because reproductive rates are decreasing overpopulation is no longer a problem. While reproductive rates are decreasing the human population is still growing. Also, nowhere in this book is the rest of life mentioned. One of the problems of our massive population is the effects that humans are creating with the current loss of biodiversity. While Mr. Connelly laments the travesties committed against humanity his failure to provide any reference to the rest of life makes the rest of life seem irrelevant. I would find his moralistic outrage easier to swallow if he would show some concern for other living creatures. I'm also left wondering if some of the conclusions he reaches in this book are based on his religious beliefs. When he refers to "reproductive rights" it comes across as an indirect reference to "pro-life", much in the same way as intelligent design masks a creationist worldview. While he boasts of his credentials as a historian does he have any background in natural history or ecology?



2. This is a beautifully written book about an incendiary topic.
   
   Starting with Malthus many argued that population would overwhelm our resources. Life expectancy kept growing, swelling the levels of humans alive.
   
   A vast population control movement swung into motion, bent on stamping out population growth everywhere, but especially in poor countries.
   
   Many of the early members of the movement seemed inspired by racism.
   Margaret Sanger and the eugenics theories of the 1930's wanted to see more breeding by white intellectuals, and fewer babies born by the poor. Some others stressed concern for food resources. Even in the 1960's Ravenholt, head of USAID, said that "abortion was especially appropriate for poor people, since they lacked the foresight to use birth control" (p 244).
   
   It is fascinating reading about the unending divisions sent out by the United Nations to reduce population. There were incentives for those in poor countries who agreed to sterilization. Trained women marched through villages, passing out condoms, pills, and lots of advice. In many areas some degree of force or deception was used to reduce population. Notoriously, China introduced a one child policy and many women were given abortions under force.
   
   Those against the population movement fought a rearguard movement with little success. Connelly doesn't care for these people much, but Pope John Paul wrote "a new encyclical, Evangelium Vitae, (the Gospel of Life)...and pounded home his arguments in virtually every public appearance" (p 386).
   
   It is too bad that Connelly didn't provide more information on the results of the population movement. He does point out that "the number of children per women fell between 1950 and 2000 in cuontries with strong population control programs. But it also dropped dramatically during the same period in countries that made little effort to stop population grown or even encouraged it (p 374). Connelly doesn't point out that even the UN agrees that world population will peak around 2050 due to rising life expectancy. From that time, population will start to drop like a stone.
   
   Anyone interested in the topic will want to pick up "Disappearing Daughters" which documents the 100 million missing women in China and India. Abortion, infanticide, and poison being among the many methods used to dispose of unwanted females, leaving these countries awash in men. Another book on this topic is "Bare Branches".



3. Connelly manages to write a massive volume without substantively addressing several key issues:
   
   1) the finite availability of natural resources and the limits to growth it imposes
   2) the role of religious & cultural superstitions in fighting voluntary population control
   3) the unlikelihood of people accepting a reduced standard of living
   4) the relative value of informed versus uninformed decision making
   
   Connelly analysis is essentially cornucopian. He shows no understanding of such concepts as ecological carrying capacity or the fact that critical fertiliser resources like phosphorus or potash (potassium) have a very limited supply relative to feasibly extractable resources. His 'development' solution for population control ignores the inability to provide anything more than a poverty-ridden, subsistence existence for the bulk of humanity at past let alone future population levels.
   
   Connelly grossly privileges religion by avoiding any critique of how dogma plays into opposition to voluntary population control. That is intellectual cowardice at its most rank. The author can look forward to his book being used by Abrahamic fundamentalists who view population growth as an assertion of religious supremacy. Again his unwillingness to address these people, who are the opponents of the women's rights he claims to revere, is typical of academics of this blame-the-West mindset.
   
   For all his smug posturing against `racism' he shows ironically little practical concern with the survival of our or other species as a whole. His own `fatal misconception' is that because some population control efforts have been motivated by racism or eugenic views that their overall goal is automatically invalid.
   
   His moralising about `imperialism,' further ignores the fact that all modes of decision making are not equal. Is an illiterate peasant who sees fathering as many sons as possible for the sake of machismo and/or religious duty really as well placed to make decisions about population control as a scientists or politician with access to quality information and educated to consider longterm consequences of human actions?
   
   Writing from a position of privilege and comfort in the West, Connelly can chastise those who dare to question the decision making ability of people engaged in a hand-to-mouth existence. Without some `elitist' intervention a great many positive social policies (e.g. women's rights, gay marriage) would never have come about. Ignoring that uncomfortable truth is the only way Connelly could justify his tired anti-imperialism rhetoric.



4. In as much as hysterics over global population have been with us a LONG time, and in as much as hysterics over a coming ecological meltdown have been with us for quite some time as well, this book provides a decent overview of what the author seems to regard as extreme views in the population debate.
   
   However, that said, this book's author takes a tone that is inappropriate for a dispassionate scholarly work. One reviewer of the book, Dr. Jay Winter of Yale said that Dr. Connelly's work was "disturbing, angry, combative, and important." With all due respect to Dr. Winter, I only agree with first three descriptors.
   
   The central thesis of this book is this: population growth is not the problem the doomsday prophets proclaim that it is, because access to voluntary contraception and abortion has successfully put the breaks on growth. Therefore, imperialistic and immoral programs of forced "population control" are totally unnecessary.
   
   However, the population controllers are only one of the villains in this narrative. While, on the one hand, the vicious and evil population controllers are painted as imperialistic and repugnant, on the other hand, Dr. Connelly paints an equally "disturbing" picture of the evil, myopic, and power obsessed Catholic Church. The "disturbing, angry," and "combative" tone are evident throughout the book when addressing these two opposite, and in the author's mind equally destructive, agendas.
   
   However, history ought not be angry, combative, and emotionalistic. Rather, scholars like Dr. Connelly should first seek to UNDERSTAND who and what they are writing about before putting pen to paper, and when they do finally getting around to telling their story, a dispassionate and removed scholarly tone is far more appropriate. Dr. Connelly has failed miserably in this task, and the entire work crumbles as a result. As a staunch and orthodox Catholic, I have difficulty believing that the population controllers are as evil as Dr. Connelly seems to want to pretend. My personal experience with those who advocate population control is that they seem to be good people who are perhaps easily scared by prophesies of coming environmental and/or demographic disaster due to some imagined population "bomb." More often than not their views are "theological" in that they have bought into an ideological scientism that is neither especially logical, nor open to rational argumentation.
   
   It seems that Dr. Connelly wants to demonize both positions because he seems to want to paint himself as above the fray. When one reads a text critically, the hand of the author tends to emerge. This author engages in a kind of "all knowing" critique of opposing views in the population debate that is both narcissistic and off-putting. Furthermore, the data do not support what he has to say.
   
   I cannot speak for those who advocate population control. However, if Connelly was as "fair" to them as he was to the Catholic position, then they surely do have reason to criticize this work. Take Connely's two pages on Humanae Vitae as an example. There are so many fallacies that totally ignore contemporary scholarship on the encyclical, and contemporary practice of natural family planning, that it is amazing that the work is the result of a professor at a school with the reputation of Columbia.
   
   Consider the following fallacies:
   
   Connelly seems to believe that the Church teaches we should all have as many children as biologically possible. This is false. Parents should consider grave reasons to space or limit the size of their families. For those living in poverty, grave reasons certainly can include the inability to feed or educate or nurture children.
   
   Connelly seems to believe that the natural methods of contraception the Church advocates all need Basal thermometers, are all very onerous, and all even require rectal temperatures. (HE ACTUALLY SAYS THIS). He did NO research into this topic.
   
   On the contrary, the FACT is that Mother Theresa of Calcutta and her nuns achieved a 90% effectiveness rate (higher in many cases than artificial contraception in practice) after having taught women the Billings ovulation method of natural family planning. The billings ovulation method requires neither a thermometer (Basal or otherwise) nor literacy, as one does not even need charts! The 90% effectiveness rate was achieved by using clinical experience rules derived from observation of mucus signs to predict fertile phases. Dr. Connelly did NO research on Mother Theresa's nuns, even though the study of their success with Billings was widely publicized.
   
   Connelly seems to believe that natural methods are ineffective because men in poor countries are incapable of continence for one or two weeks out of every month. I find this amazing. Not only does Mother Theresa's experience belie this claim, the claim is downright bigoted. Most of the world's poor are people of color and are front continents like Africa and South America. The idea seems to be that these folks are animalistic and unable to control themselves. This is silly.
   
   It is especially silly since we know that among American teenagers, the pill is only 50% effective in preventing conception. Why? Because kids don't take their pills accurately. The 99% effectiveness statistic artificial methods advertise are "perfect use" statistics, that rarely, if ever, hold up in the field. Given the fact that artificial contraceptives give people license to have sex during the fertile time of a woman's cycle, and give the fact that in the field these methods often fail, it should come as no surprise that Mother Theresa's effectiveness rate was HIGHER than artificial methods for the poor in India trained by her.
   
   In fact, Dr. Connelly ONLY did research in the Vatican Secret Archives. He consulted no Ob-gyn's or other medical professionals familiar with natural family planning, nor any contemporary philosophers or theologians who are familiar with the nuances of Church teaching. Dr. Connelly's resulting analysis of the Catholic Church is simplistic, error ridden, emotionalistic, and judgmental. The key word that jumps to mind here is narcissism. Only a narcissist seeks to condemn others before trying to understand their position, especially in a so called "academic" work. However, this work is not an academic work. It is simply a screed in favor an agenda.
   
   For a better look at population figures, and the negative ramifications of population control, an excellent work is Population Control: Real Costs, Illusory Benefits This book was not carefully written or thought out.



5. The author makes a compelling case that population control groups are accountable to no one. Driven by their own particular ideologies, they operate with little regard to either the welfare of individuals within nation states or the overall interest of the countries they seek to influence.
   The larger point is that international organizations behave in similar fashion to interest groups: i.e., controlled by elites and driven by narrow ideologies.

5 comments about Across the Wide Missouri.

1. DeVoto's "Across the Wide Missiouri" is good history in search of an even better editor.

   I learned some valuable things about the Sioux migration, trading between tribes on the plains and White/Indian ecomomic relationships of the fur trade, but DeVoto is too front and center. He jumps back and forward of the period under study in the book and goes into what I can only describe as historical diatribes every once in a while.

   The book is very readable in spite of these faults and his pictures of Whitman, Spaulding & company add real flesh to people that are often overlooked or treated as one demensional.

   Two thoughts about editing: At the time "Missouri" was written, in the mid 40's, DeVoto was unquestionably the expert in the field and so he probably edited his own work. Not the best situation. Maybe he should have edited an updated edition of Chittenden's "The American Fur Trade of the Far West" instead and published a collection of historical essays on the period under his own name.

   As someone interested in the west I am glad I read it but will only be recommending it to a select few and maybe only parts of the book to others.




2. DeVoto's biggest problem is the confusing manner in which he presents his story. There is a wealth of information in this book, but it will take a determined reader to decipher and translate just what DeVoto is trying to say and you just might find yourself re-reading paragraphs more often than not. I'm surprised his editor didn't force a rewrite. Fur trade novice's beware, this book is for those with more than a passing interest in the topic. But again, there is a wealth of information here if you have the time and patience to give this book.



3. Across the Wide Missouri
   
   Mr. DeVoto has a passion for this subject and a passion for the characters that live in it.
   
   Here are some excerpts from the book:
   
   "There were few delicate feeders in the mountains...The river tribes liked the green, putrid flesh of buffalo drowned while crossing the ice and hauled ashore weeks later, `so ripe, so tender, that very little boiling is required.' They ate the kidneys raw... the white man would eat the liver raw as soon as it was taken; he seasoned it with the gall or sometimes with gunpowder...he had no more tableware than his belt knife - gravy, juices and blood running down his face, forearms and shirt. He wolfed the meat and never reached repletion. Eight pounds a day was standard ration for Hudson Bay employees [but often eat twice that amount]...melted fat was gulped by the pint. Kidney fat could be drunk without limit...Hump and boss boil in a kettle, cracked marrow bones sizzle by the fire...Camp is pitched by a small creek or a rushing mountain river...Here is the winesap air of the high places, the clear, green sky of evening fading to a dark that brings the stars within arm's length, the cottonwoods along the creek rustling in the wind. The smell of meat has brought wolves and coyotes almost to the circle of firelight. They skulk just beyond it; sometimes a spurt of flame will turn will turn their eyes to gold...Horses and mules crop the bunch grass at the end of their lariats or browse on leaves along the creek. The firelight flares and fades in the wind's rhythm on the faces of men in whose minds are the vistas and the annuls of the entire West."
   
   
   If you are yearning for a dry narrative of the fur trade, this is not your book. This book gives you a feel for the land and a feel for the kinds of men involved in the fur trade. It gives you a feel for the hardships that they faced, the cutthroat business practices of the trade and how instrumental these men were to opening up the west for settlement. He does not sanitize history or historical figures. He presents the good and the bad of both the individual fur traders and the various Indian tribes that were most closely linked to the fur trade.
   
   As it turns out, this is not a simple story to tell or to organize into a linear narrative. There were many different characters and crosscurrents cutting through the entire period. He weaves this story together with the sinew provided by the movements of a few of the most important mountain men: Jim Bridger, Tom Fitzpatrick, Joe Meek, Bill and Milton Sublette and Kit Carson.
   
   He runs another colorful thread through the story made of missionaries. These are clearly the most foolish, most spiteful and most disagreeable people in the narrative. Some of them are also the most well-intentioned and tragic characters in the grand story. Of the missionaries' desire to convert the Nez Perce and Flathead Indians to Christianity, he says, "[Nez Perce] were superior Indians, they made no trouble, they liked and admired white men...Their desire for instruction in the mysteries was genuine and paramount, as clean as the desire of these Christians to give them what they wanted. Both desires were simple and altogether hopeless...The Indians receiving instruction were men of the age of polished stone...They tried, both Indians and whites. There they stood, the seekers and the bearers of truth...the sincerity of these Indians' desire for religious instruction could not be doubted." And yet this first wave of missionaries met with frustration, failure and murder.
   
   But the primary and repeated organizational thread that runs through this story is a fascinating and completely unlikely man named William Drummond Stewart. This man won the respect and deep friendship of all the great mountain men. He was kind, generous and good humored. Captain William Drummond Stewart of the British Army "was in his thirty-seventh year. He was the brother of Sir John Archibald Stewart, eighteenth of Grandtully and sixth baronet, and was next in succession to him...He went through the Hundred days with his regiment and fought at Waterloo." He traveled the prairies and the mountains in comfort, elegance and style. He was as tough, as adventurous and as skillful as any of the mountain men. Yet there was not even a hint of royal superiority about him.
   
   Mr. DeVoto is a magnificent writer. If you are looking for an outstanding overview of the fur trade, this is your book. He also provides fascinating notes in the appendix and an extensive bibliography for those who are interested in further reading.



4. I AGREE W/NAICHE. AUTHOR HAS(HAD) GOOD COMMAND OF SUBJECT MATTER BUT PRESENTS IT IN A MADDENINGLY DISORGANIZED MANNER. POORLY INTRODUCED PERSONAGES & EVENTS SEGUE THROUGH EACH CHAPTER NOT TO BE ADEQUATELY DISCUSSED (IF AT ALL) UNTIL MANY PAGES LATER. I FOUND MYSELF FLIPPING AHEAD & BACK IN FRUSTRATION TRYING TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. MR. DeVOTO SEEMS MORE CONCERNED WITH DEMONSTRATING HIS LITERARY WIT THAN CLEARLY PRESENTING HIS SUBJECT MATTER. I FOUND ROBERT UTLEY'S "A LIFE WILD AND PERILOUS" FAR EASIER TO READ & LEARN FROM.



5. Living in Colorado, and having hiked and driven the western part of the United States, I think this book is great. It tells the story of Mountain Men and the areas they covered. The adventures they lived, and the skill it took to survive. What legends of the West!

5 comments about Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.

1. Mr. Simmons' purpose in writing this book was to assess how long Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain its present rate of oil production. His assessment required extensive detective work as well as "reading between the lines" of Saudi Arabia's official statements because the Saudi's are highly secretive about their oil fields and they do not make any of their production data available to the public. Mr. Simmons concluded that Saudi Arabia will not be able to sustain its current production rates much longer and will soon enter a period of rapid decline.
   
   Mr. Simmons' thesis is that conditions experienced at individual oil wells can be extrapolated to determine the level of depletion of the entire oil field in which the wells are located. As background, Mr. Simmons used old, but comprehensive, data on Saudi oil fields that were compiled prior to when Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry. This data establishes which Saudi oil fields are the largest and most productive. Mr. Simmons then analyzed more recent papers written on individual wells within the most important Saudi oil fields to see if these wells were exibiting signs consistent with oil field depletion. For example, oil wells with problems such as "gas caps" or "high water cuts" can be an indication that the entire oil field is in an advanced state of depletion. Mr. Simmons concluded that problems indicative of depletion are occurring at wells in Saudi's most productive oil fields. Mr. Simmons also noted that production increases at smaller fields and the development of newly discovered fields have been barely sufficient to offset the declines at the older fields.
   
   Mr. Simmons is a formidable researcher, but his writing skills leave something to be desired. Rather than condense the complex technical information into coherent conclusions, he simply repeats the same facts over and over, apparently hoping that the reader will "connect the dots" for himself. Because of this, I probably missed many of the points Mr. Simmons was trying to make. Better organization and summary of the complex material could have made the book half as long as twice as understandable.



2. Excellent book well researched by Mr. Simmons, who years ago predicted $100 oil when most of the major oil companies were selling properties and downsizing. They ignored his predications and now are smaller and less prepared for expansion while oil exceeds $100 per bbl. His style may be a bit repetitive and dry for the non engineer or person familiar with the oil and gas industry but he makes a very plausible case.



3. A very interesting book. A beautiful rendition of speculative thought. The possibilities are thought provoking.



4. Matt Simmons has done his homework, and this book will be sited and quoted for years to come. If you want to see what the future looks like as we sail into the energy "perfect storm", this book will take you there.



5. If you're the type of person who likes to know how things work, this book will clearly be one of the most interesting books you'll read. Before reading this book, I'd just fill up at the pump and go...never really think about how the oil got to the gas station. Most Americans take this step for granted. Next time you're on the highway though, look around, and really think about all the people driving--just like you--and try to imagine how so much oil could be taken out of the ground now and in the past several decades to satisfy all the drivers out there---truly amazing. Matthew Simmons goes thorough this process--step by step--of how people tirelessly explore for oil, extract it--now with great technical difficulty, and process it. You will not look at the world in the same way after reading this book.
   
   As Matthew Simmons points out here, the world's largest oil fields in Saudi Arabia (and other major oil exporting countries) have matured, and it is increasingly technically difficult and expensive to extract oil from the elephant fields there. We are probably nearing a time of historical importance--a time when the easy oil has been extracted--and only expensive oil remains in the ground for future use. The ramifications of this theory are immense--especially considering how growth in the Chinese and Indian economies could fuel increases in oil demand in the near future. Unfortunately, Simmons offers few practical solutions for dealing with the ramifications of his theory. Rather, T. Boone Pickens comes to the rescue on this point with his "Picken's Plan"--as described in his book "The First Billion is the Hardest." Picken's book is highly recommended after reading Twighlight in the Desert. Let us pray our politicians head the warnings of these two prescient authors.